On a periodic basis we do some posts that fall under the theme of “by the numbers.” Rather than trust what the American political class tells us about reality, we like to examine the real numbers and the real reality in the world to understand what is actually going on. Relying on politicians, and their cohorts in the media, to tell us what is reality is always a sucker bet. They have their own agendas and goals, usually centering around their needs and self-enrichment. So we need to look at the reality of the numbers to determine what is really going on.
Previous analyses of “by the numbers” can be accessed by entering the phrase in the search box above. This is the third and final post this month where we look at the numbers to truly find out how good, not likely, or bad, most likely, the American political class is doing in managing our tax dollars, protecting our freedoms, and resolving major issues that affect all of us.
Today we will do a quick look at the numbers as they relate to my former home state, New Jersey. In a previous post, we analyzed the states and cities that are most likely to go bankrupt first. Our conclusion was that New Jersey, along with New York, California, and Illinois, will be the first states to go bankrupt. Our previous analysis can be found at:
https://loathemygovernment.blogspot.com/2020/11/which-city-and-which-state-will-go.html
Our theory is that badly run states, like the four listed above, continue to over tax, over regulate, and rob their residents and businesses of their individual freedoms. Those oppressed residents and businesses eventually migrate to other, less oppressive locations for a better quality of life for themselves and their businesses. As residents and businesses leave, the states’ tax bases get smaller and smaller which results in higher taxation on the remaining residents and businesses. These higher taxes drive more residents and businesses out of the state further reducing the tax base. And the financial death spiral is now in play.
And while we forecasted that Illinois or California would go bankrupt first, given their dire financial situation and the mass out migration of their residents and businesses, a recent analysis of New Jersey says that maybe, just maybe New Jersey may beat both states into bankruptcy:
According to the travel website moveBuddha, New Jersey now has the highest proportion of residents moving out of the state vs. every other state.
The numbers are quite amazing: for every 34 moves into New Jersey, there are 100 moves out of the state.
Thus, there is almost a 3 to 1 ratio of out moves vs. in moves.
One out of every four out moves from New Jersey is to Florida.
I know from personal experience, given my move from New Jersey to Florida, that our property tax rate in Florida has been a fraction of what the property tax rate in New Jersey was.
Also, my state income tax bill in Florida is 0% because there is no state income tax rate.
I estimate that since I left New Jersey 17 years ago, I have easily saved over $150,000 in property taxes and state income taxes without any loss of quality of life.
The 3 of the top 5 cities fleeing New Jersey residents are heading to include Naples, Miami, and Tampa Florida.
New Jersey ranks 4th in the country for the total number of out moves.
42% of New Jersey respondents that responded to the moveBuddha migration poll said they were planning to move to another state in the next year.
In a different study, United Van Lines found in their poll that New Jersey was ranked #1 for the most out of state moves over the past four years.
Apparently, the state politicians in New Jersey have not learned their lesson. The out migration continues,leaving New Jersey with fewer and fewer residents, resulting in a smaller and smaller tax base. A smaller tax base results in a tax revenue shortfall and causes the state politicians to raise taxes which forces more people to leave and the spiral is in place. The numbers don't lie even if politicians do.
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