August, 2018, By The Numbers, Part 1: The Current Status of Numerical Lying By Our Politicians

On a semi-regular basis we do a post under the theme, “By The Numbers.” Under this theme we analysis the crazy ways that politicians use numbers, from making them up outright, to using them inappropriately, to using them to lie to us. The problem for them when they do that is it is so easy to show how either stupid they are or how conniving they are. 

As an FYI, as you read my analysis of the misuse of numbers, keep in mind that I have a masters degree in statistics and for most of my life have been involved in analyzing numbers and stats. Politicians misuse of numbers and statistics is taken as a personal and professional affront to me and my profession.

1) Politifact bills itself as an unbiased research organization that analyzes statements and claims by politicians and then reads out whether those statements were correct, wrong or misleading. In reality, they are a left leaning, liberal leaning fact checking group that I have exposed any number of times over the years for their misuse of data and numbers. So when they say a very liberal, almost socialist Democratic politician, is wrong in the use of her numbers, you know that the transgression is especially bad.

So let’s look at how bad Congressional candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez failed in her use of numbers during a recent interview:

• In a recent PBS interview, Ocasio-Cortez really loaded up on numbers by claiming that, “everyone has two jobs” and “people are working 60, 70, 80 hours a week and can barely feed their family."
• This statement was so wrong, so off the wall, that Politifact gave it it’s worse rating for lies, “pants on fire”: “In our review, we found many reasons why unemployment is low, and not for the overwork that Ocasio-Cortez cited. The biggest factors include strong economic confidence and the long-running economic recovery.”
• “Everyone has two jobs” was also found to be nonsense since according to the Department of Labor, 148 million employed Americans have only one job while only six to seven million Americans who have more than one job, not “everyone.”
• Thus, a very small percentage of Americans are holding more than a single job, another big lie from Ocasio-Cortez.
• But Politifact was not done, citing Bureau of Labor Statistics which says that only 310,000 American workers out of 150 million working Americans are working 70 to 80 hours a week, a percentage that is not even worth calculating: “It’s also worth noting that on average, Americans aren’t working more today than they have been in the recent past. The average number of hours worked in the private sector has hugged tightly to about 34.5 hours a week since 2006, except for a dip during the Great Recession.”

When a clearly liberal leaning fact checking organization says a Democrat lied so much that her pants were on fire, it is pretty obvious that this politician was making up statistics and fake realities as she was going along. And while politicians like Ocasio-Cortez lie, the numbers never do.

2) But Ocasio-Cortez was not the only political type making up numbers. Chelsea Clinton was also pulling numbers out of thin air at a recent conference. She was talking about abortion rights, which is certainly her right, but then tried to apply numbers that were just out of control: “Whether you fundamentally care about reproductive rights and access rights – because these are not the same thing – if you care about social justice or economic justice, you have to care about this. It is not a disconnected fact that American women entering the labor force from 1973 to 2009 added three and a half trillion dollars to the economy, right? The net, new entrance of women – that is not disconnected from the fact that Roe became the law of the land in January of 1973.”

Thus, according to her logic, the right to an abortion allowed more women to enter the workforce and contribute $3.5 trillion to the economy over a 36 year period. It is so easy to prove how this is a net loss to the country and society on a financial basis using real data as opposed to Chelsea making up numbers:

• About 50 million Americans were aborted since the Roe Vs. Wade verdict in 1973 until 2009.
• Thus, over 36 years, on average, about 1.4 million infants were aborted annually.
• Let’s split the 36 years in half and assume about 25 million Americans would have been in the workforce today if they had not been aborted.
• The average American worker earns a little over $50,000 a year in their jobs but the phantom 25 million people we are talking about above would have been younger, less seasoned, likely earning less than the average American worker.
• Thus, let’s assume the average earnings of those 25 million would be earning 20% less, about $40,000 a year today.
• Thus, multiplying the 25 million workers by their $40,000 annual salaries, these 25 people if they had not been aborted would be contributing $1 trillion a YEAR to the American economy. 
• So, Chelsea claims that the 50 million people aborted before being born allowed their moms to add $3.5 trillion to the U.S. economy over a 36 year period but we just showed that if half of those aborted had been born they likely would add $1 trillion to the economy in a single year now.
• And going forward, those 25 million people would be moving along their career paths, increasing the amount they contributed to the economy and the other 25 million souls who were aborted in the second half of the 36 year period would be entering the workforce and adding to the amount that the aborted souls would be adding to the economy for decades to come.
• And not only would the 50 million people would be adding to and growing the economy today, those first 25 million people earning $40,000 a year would be adding $150 billion a year to the cash strapped Social Security and Medicare programs.

Thus, even when Chelsea makes up numbers, they cannot match a conservative and realistic view of what those 50 million aborted souls could realistically be contributing to the economy. 

This analysis is not meant to convince anyone if aborting souls is a good economic choice or good moral choice. The analysis is meant to point out how political types make up numbers that have no basis in reality when put under even a simple logic and math calculation. Which is why whenever someone like Chelsea hypes a number, you are far better off assuming that those numbers are pure garbage because historically those numbers were, pure garbage.

3) Usually during our monthly discussion on “Political Class Insanity” we talk about the death and maiming numbers coming out of Chicago every weekend. The south and west parts of the city are infested with gang violence and gun violence despite having some of the most stringent gun control laws in the country. A few weekends ago, over 70 Chicago residents were shot and a dozen were killed over the three day weekend.

In the most recent weekend, 23 people were shot and two died as a result of their wounds just between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. Ironically three people were shot at a so-called "peace event" in broad daylight. Those shot ranged in age from 15 years old to senior citizens. These are real numbers that real politicians have not idea how to cure. 

Thus, nothing new today. Political types make up assertions, facts and numbers without any basis in reality (Ocasio-Cortez), they make up numbers that are easily shown to be nonsense (Chelsea Clinton), and they stand by as the numbers show more and more people being killed for no reason. Always trust the numbers, never trust a politician.

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