Showing posts with label moody's. Show all posts
Showing posts with label moody's. Show all posts

Friday, March 27, 2026

March, 2026, Part 3, Political Class Insanity: NYC Homeless Problem Gets More Expensive, Post Office Heading For Bankruptcy, Empty Government Offices, and Shades of 1975 NYC Financial Crisis Reappear

 We have  spent a lot  of  time recently talking about which city or state will go bankrupt first. That race to  bankruptcy court seems to be accelerating as politicians in these vulnerable cities and states are starting to realize that their policies and ignorance are causing financial crises across the country.


However, we will step back from that theme for a few days since political class insanity in other areas has continued unabated and needs to  be discussed and ridiculed.


1)For  many, many years we have pointed out how inept and  corrupt the American political class  is when it comes to wasting taxpayer money. The  programs and projects they propose almost always fall short of delivering the benefits promised and are almost always more expensive and over schedule than what is promised. From the Big Dig in Boston years ago to the high speed rail line in California that has not come close to becoming a reality, politicians and the government operations they oversee almost always fail.


The latest example of that is in New York City:


  • According to Sean Hannity, NYC continues to spend  more and more  on  the homeless folks wandering the streets of New York City while never even improving the problem.

  • Citing official city  data, he claims that the number of unsheltered homeless folks in the  city rose from 3588 in 2019 to 4504 in 2025. 

  • These are homeless people that are living on the streets, the situation that led almost two dozen of them freezing to death  this past winter.

  • At the  same time the amount of taxpayer dollars paid on trying to help the unsheltered homeless rose from $102 million annually to $368 million annually.

  • Thus, the cost per serving the unsheltered homeless folks in the city went from about $28,400 in 2019 to about $81,700 per person in 2025.

  • Another way of looking at the numbers is to realize that the cost per unsheltered homeless person almost tripled in six years while the number of unsheltered homeless people actually increased, not a very effective use of taxpayer wealth.


Continuing to do what the city’s politicians have been doing over the past years does not seem to be working. The unsheltered homeless population goes up, the cost of addressing the unsheltered homeless population goes up even faster, and it has gotten to a point where the average being spent on each unsheltered homeless person is actually greater than the median household income in the city which is just under $80,000 per household. 


Although not possible, the city would be theoretically better off just cutting a check for about $80,000 a year and giving it to the homeless, unsheltered people which would put them above the median average income in the city. That is how bad the city’s social program for unsheltered people  is working.


2)We often talk about which state government or city government will go bankrupt first. But there is also a Federal government agency that might beat the vulnerable states and cities to  bankruptcy court:


  • The U.S. Post Office (USPS) has seen its mail volume decrease almost 50% over the past few years with the amount of first class mail falling 56%.

  • Thus, it is obviously operating in a declining market as other carriers (e.g.UPS, FedEx, etc.) have taken some of its  package shipping  volume away from the USPS and consumers and businesses have more and more turned to electronic forms of communications to pay bills, advertise, etc.

  • As a result, the Post Office recently announced that it will be raising the cost of a first class letter  from  $.78 to  over $.90 besides putting forth a temporary fuel  surcharge starting by May to compensate for  the recent surge in fuel  prices.

  • But simple economics tells us that much like cities and states that keep raising taxes but losing  "customers" (i.e. residents and businesses moving away), the same thing will happen with the Post Office’s raising of postage: more and more residents and businesses will stop using first class mail, reducing the mail volume the USPS carries, reducing the revenue stream despite higher rates,  and the financial  death spiral is underway.


Knowing the American political class, I wager this is what is  going  to happen: rather than take bold,  and logical  steps to  make  the USPS  more efficient, e.g.  reducing the number of unprofitable post office locations, ditching Saturday mail delivery, renegotiating salaries with the USPS union, etc.,  the political class will  do nothing and allow the USPS to  continue to raise rates, like they themselves   continue to raise taxes, the USPS revenue stream  will collapse. And the American taxpayer will be  forced  to step in and subsidize another failing and inefficient government entity within two years.


3)Speaking of politicians and government  entities not acting which costs taxpayers big bucks:


  • The Federal  government finally sold one of its vacant and  massive office buildings in DC that is expected to save taxpayers at least $200 million.

  • The building had been vacant and useless for about a year.

  • Senator Joni Eernst helped push the sale thorough: “After years of working to put empty and expensive federal buildings up for sale, today, the GSA Regional Office Building is officially sold. Even though this building has been vacant, the American people have still been footing the bill. With this sale, we are saving Americans over $205 million and taking an additional $50 million in required updates off taxpayers’ tab.”

  • Fortunately the sale went  through  since the Public Buildings Review Board had estimated it would cost $50 million  to clear up the building’s maintenance backlog.


This is the good news, finally someone, somewhere in the government realized that some dead use space was better sold off than continuing to suck up taxpayer wealth. But to think this is the only bad real estate investment on the government’s books, consider:


  • In January, the Post Office admitted that almost 300 of its buildings across the  country were  either completely or partially unused.

  • In February, the Department of Agriculture admitted that only one third of its  allocated space in its DC headquarters was being used.

  • And other departments within the Federal  government are also paying for massive unused office space as a result of remote working and Trump's downsizing of the Federal workforce.


Millions of Americans are homeless, hungry, drug addicted and without health insurance and yet Washington bureaucrats and politicians have allowed taxpayer dollars to be wasted on basically thin air in a multitude of empty office spaces. Such bad and lazy priorities.


4)One last piece of insanity for today. We have had  many discussions over the past few  months over which major city (New York  City,  Chicago, Los Angeles, San  Francisco) or state government (California, Illinois, New York , New Jersey) will go into bankruptcy first. A few of the most discussion on this bankruptcy race can  be  accessed at:


https://loathemygovernment.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-race-to-bankruptcy-court-hochuls.html


https://loathemygovernment.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-race-to-bankruptcy-seattle-and.html


https://loathemygovernment.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-race-to-bankruptcy-court-bears.html


Our view is that New York City and  New York  state will  win their respective races to bankruptcy court. Both entities have  been losing residents and businesses at an accelerating rate to areas with lower taxes, lower business regulation, lower crime rates,  and a better quality of life, all  of which reduces the city’s and state’s tax base which accelerates the run to bankruptcy.


But the race to bankruptcy court almost did happen in  New York  City back in the 1970s, a situation nicely described by the Rockefeller Institute:


  • In April, 1975, New  York  City ran  out of cash when banks decided that they did not want to underwrite any city government notes or bonds, viewing them as worthless with the city out of cash to back them up.

  • President Ford at that time refused (an  appropriate action) to make the American taxpayer bailout the city government.

  • The financial crisis was caused by over a decade of reckless spending beyond what the tax base could support, borrowing against the future, increased and unsustainable social spending, a shrinking tax base, and deceptive and creative accounting to hide the financial reality.

  • With the tax base shrinking, the city government and its politicians had to implement massive city employee layoffs, greatly reduce government services (police, fire, medical), and had to  slash spending to get in alignment with the shrinking tax base.


As  anyone who has read our posts above and the many other ones that we have written on the race  to bankruptcy court, the above scenario as  documented by the Rockefeller Institute is happening today. Consider New  York City:


  • The current  mayor, Zohran  Mamdani, is proposing a city budget for the city’s 8 million residents that is greater than the state government budget for the  entire state of Florida that has  about three times as many residents.

  • Rather than making the city more  efficient he is forging ahead with the heavy and expanded of funding of social spending, much  like what was happening in 1975.

  • Residents and businesses were already fleeing the city because of heavy taxation, crime, and quality of life even before the current  mayor took office and he has  done  nothing to lure them back  or keep those that have not left yet much like in  1975.

  • Moody's has recently downgraded the city’s  credit worthiness, much like the banks did  back  in 1975.

  • Rather than manage the  size of  the budget to realistic tax revenue expectations, the mayor is using the same creative accounting tricks from back in 1975 as he steals and borrows money from different rainy day financial buckets to fund current government operations.


It happened back  in 1975, and the economic ignorance that pervades New York City’s current  politicians will eventually have the same effect today: slashed government  spending, slashed government services, a far smaller tax base to  fuel an economic recovery, lower quality of  life, etc. 


And yes, we still maintain that both New  York  City and New  York  state will be the first city and state to  go  bankrupt among our  top  candidates.


Enough political class insanity for today: shades of NYC 1975 bankruptcy crisis reappearing today, taxpayers paying for vacant government office space, the Post Office heading for bankruptcy, and New York City spends  more and gets less for its homeless population.


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If you agree that we need to deseat every member of Congress for their lack of success and accomplishment, then please consider going to the following petition link to help the cause:


https://www.change.org/p/deseat-congress-reset-freedom



**********************


Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:


Saturday, March 21, 2026

The Race To Bankruptcy Court - Hochul's Ridiculous and Tone Deaf Request, New York City Gets a Credit Downgrade, and Chicago Is Still Going Bankrupt

 It seems we are in a little bit of a rut in that we seem to be getting overwhelmed with news about our choice for states and major cities that are likely to go bankrupt relatively soon. As always, our top state governments that we think are nearing bankruptcy include New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California. Our top major cities we think are rapidly approaching bankruptcy include New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.


Before reviewing the latest news and seeing which state or city is making the best progress towards government bankruptcy, let’s review how these cities and states got themselves into this financial death spiral position to begin with:

  • A government entity keeps expanding its budget, eventually putting pressure on the tax revenue stream it receives.

  • At some point, rather than cut government spending or make its programs more efficient financially, the politicians in charge raise taxes to meet the ever growing government expenditures.

  • The raising of taxes causes some residents and businesses to leave the city or state for less tax burdensome areas, reducing the tax base and reducing the revenue stream.

  • Rather than cut expenses and become more efficient to match the reduced tax revenue stream, politicians in the above cities or states raise the tax burden even more.

  • This causes more residents and businesses to flee the city or state, further reducing the tax base and tax revenue stream.

  • At some point politicians panic and raise taxes more and start cutting vital government services (e.g. police, fire, education) in order to try and balance government spending against the shrinking tax base and revenue stream.

  • The reduction in quality of government services in particular and quality of life in general drives more residents and businesses out of the area.

  • Eventually, the expenses, costs and financial liabilities outstrip the reduced tax stream and bankruptcy occurs.

Okay that’s the process, now lets check the progress some of the above listed government entities are making to achieve this bankruptcy goal  against this process:


1)The following  discussion point proves that some cities and states are definitely going  to  go  bankrupt pretty soon because politicians are ignorant of economic realities and really and just plain stupid when  it comes to  common sense. But before we explore one of the most inane recent reactions to the financial  death spiral one state finds itself in, consider a little  history and background:


  • Back in 2022, the New York Post reported on some incredibly stupid comments made by the governor of New  York, Kathy Hochul.

  • Hochul is a Democrat and  told state Republican  voters back in  2022 that they should “Just jump on a bus and head down to Florida where you belong. You are not New Yorkers.”

  • Yes, the top political  official in the state told about half  of her state’s constituents, about 5.4 million  Republican voters, that they should just leave and not come back, likely one of the  most insensitive and  disgusting comments  ever made by a sitting politician.

  • The Post reported at the time that the state government of New York was staring at a five year anticipated budget gap of $14 billion and yet she told a large portion of the state’s taxpayers to leave town.

  • Of course,  back in 2022, many of  the state’s residents and businesses had already taken her advice, driven out by high taxes, high crime rates, and high business regulation, since over the preceding ten years, 1.5 million New York  residents had already left the state with 350,000 leaving during the year long pandemic epidemic.

  • At the  time of  her  comments, she was proposing a record high state government budget of  $220 billion making the out immigration of residents and  their tax  dollars even more financially dangerous.

  • In 2022 when the Post reported on Hochul’s comments, New York  City by itself had lost 300,000 jobs during the previous two years.

  • Opinion  polls conducted at that time showed that the number one reason people were leaving the state was overwhelmingly associated with high taxes.,

  • And finally  the Post article reported that an IRS analysis of those people  leaving New  York had an average income of over $100,000, i.e.  the highest paying taxpayers were the  ones getting out of the state.


So, four years ago the governor of a state with a record setting budget and record setting budget deficits told millions  of taxpayers, and some of its highest paying taxpayers, to go away and not come back. An elected official, who is supposed to  equally represent every citizen in their domain, told half of them to go  to hell, they were  not welcome in  their home state.


So Hochul sets the stage with her insensitive and despicable comments in 2022 for the following reality


  • A recent New York Post article covered some recent Hocul comments where she said  that New York must win back the high earning taxpayers that fled to Florida.

  • Yes, four years after she told millions of state residents to “just leave,” she finally realized, duh!, that they took a lot of tax revenue with them and that she created a financial  crisis in New York.

  • Rather than reduce government spending  to  match the reduced New York state government tax base, she insists that more tax dollars,  this time by former  state residents  coming back to the state to pay high taxes,  is the remedy.

  • Her out of touch with reality statements to that effect include: “I need people of high net worth to support the generous social programs that we want to have in our state. There are some patriotic millionaires who stepped up. OK! Cut me the checks. But if you want to be supportive, maybe the first step should be to go down to Palm Beach and see who we can bring back home. Because our tax base has been eroded.” 


Can  a politician  be any more  out  of  touch with reality than Hochul? She does not want people  to  come back to  a better life that she created in the state. She blatantly just wants them back  to pay for her government programs, i.e. “CUT ME THE CHECKS!” Don’t come back for a better life for you and your family  or your business, just come back to fix the tax  base that I helped  erode by telling  over 5 million taxpayers to  leave the state.


But her behavior is  completely consistent  \with the process described above of how a state goes bankrupt: raise taxes and drive out residents and businesses who do  not want to pay high taxes, do not make government smaller or more efficient due to  the the smaller tax base, raise taxes to overcome the reduced tax base which drives out more residents and businesses, etc. Hochul made the process even worse when she actually told residents to  get  out of town, her stupidity is amazing.


This reinforces our belief that New York state will be  the first state government to go  bankrupt, a process that is accelerating, a reality the governor finally realizes is happening. Unfortunately her  solution is ridiculous and shallow: why would people who left a bad  situation voluntarily return to that same situation?


2)In recent  posts we have  also reiterated our belief that New York City will be  the next major American  city to go bankrupt. The current mayor, Zohran  Mamdani, has decided that reducing city government  expenses or making government programs more efficient is not fun, he  would rather raise taxes.


As we discussed, he faces a $5.4 short term  budget shortfall. He wants Hochul and the state government to raise taxes on the wealthy living in the city and if that does not happen he threatens to  raise property taxes on everyone by almost 10%. He recently proposed a drastic raise of the  city death tax to  50% while at the  same  time lowering the tax threshold by about 90% to $750,000.


So consider  the following  realities:


  • A wealthy person  living in the city is probably going to  get out of the city if their income tax gets raised again and their lifelong work savings get decimated by Mamdani’s changes to the  death tax.

  • All types of  people, wealthy or not, will consider getting out of the city if their already high property taxes are raised another 10% or  so.


Thus, the tax base continues to erode and thousands of other New York City residents will  follow the  hundreds of thousands of other residents who have already fled the city. And apparently Mamdani has no  intention of trimming back  his record-setting city budget to  cope with the reduced tax base, a formula for bankruptcy as outlined above.


But we have discussed all of this already in previous posts. The new news is that  the financial rating company, Moodys, has downgraded the city’s credit viability from stable  to  negative. The  company cited budget shortfalls, government  inefficiencies, and  reduced financial flexibility as the budget goes up while the tax base goes down. This downgrade  could cause it to be more expensive for the city to raise capital in the future and scare away investors who can invest their wealth with safer options.


Whether this is a wake up call for Mamdani remains to  be  seen. However, denying the reality just makes it quicker for the city to go bankrupt as not only do  residents and businesses flee the city but investors do  also.


3)And while we now believe that New York City will go bankrupt next, the city of Chicago has not given up on that race to bankruptcy court:


  • Chicago city officials predict that the city is facing a short term financial  deficit of $150 million while  also facing billions of dollars in unfunded liabilities into the future.

  • One of the reasons for the deficits is that a whopping 40% of the city’s tax revenues goes to just paying pension obligations and debt service on city bonds before a single  dollar is  spent on roads, schools, emergency services, etc.

  • The current mayor, Brandon Johnson FINALLY realized the financial plight when he recently said the city was “at a crossroads” and had to “essentially do  more with less” from a financial health basis.

  • However, rather than get the city’s  financials in order and in line with the reducing tax steam, he went shallow and just blamed Trump.

  • Austin Berg of the Illinois Policy Institute summarized the situation: “The solution set is always the same: Stop making bad decisions, and you have to put a structure in place to make better decisions. So, the bad decisions are things like taking one-time revenues from federal COVID spending and putting it into operations. The bad decisions are borrowing for operations, which this latest bond issue just did. That’s a huge no-no and a red flag for investors.”

  • In  other words stop  with the  financial  gimmicks to balance the budget, they are temporary and make the long term financial situation even worse.


Much like Hochul, Johnson finally realized that maybe Chicago is looking at a catastrophic financial death spiral. But both blame others for their inactions to  fixing the problem. In New York,  it is the fault of the people that Hochul told to leave the state in 2022 and take their tax revenue with them.   In Chicago, it is Trump's fault that the city has such a large financial hole to  dig out of. 


In either case, their realizations do not change our view that New York state, New York City, and Chicago are still leading government candidates to reach bankruptcy court first.


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If you agree that we need to deseat every member of Congress for their lack of success and accomplishment, then please consider going to the following petition link to help the cause:


https://www.change.org/p/deseat-congress-reset-freedom



**********************


Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at: