Showing posts with label tax. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tax. Show all posts

Saturday, September 5, 2026

The Race To Bankruptcy Court: Hey California, When Stuck In A Hole, Stop Digging

 Let’s check in with our discussion on which  city or state government is going to  get to bankruptcy court first. Our primary cities in the race to bankruptcy include New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and newcomer, Seattle. The state governments that we think are soon heading into bankruptcy include New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California with Washington state a newcomer to the race.


The reason for returning to this topic in the midst of our corruption series is because there have been some significant developments in the race to bankruptcy court. However, before reviewing the latest news and seeing which state or city is making the best progress towards government bankruptcy, let’s review how these cities and states got themselves into this financial death spiral position to begin with:


  • A government entity keeps expanding its budget, eventually putting pressure on the tax revenue stream it receives. 

  • At some point, rather than cut government spending or make its programs more efficient financially, the politicians in charge raise taxes to meet the ever growing government expenditures.

  • The raising of taxes causes some residents and businesses to leave the city or state for less tax burdensome areas, reducing the tax base and reducing the revenue stream.

  • Rather than cut expenses and become more efficient to match the reduced tax revenue stream, politicians in the above cities or states raise the tax burden even more.

  • This causes more residents and businesses to flee the city or state, further reducing the tax base and tax revenue stream.

  • At some point politicians panic and raise taxes more and start cutting vital government services (e.g. police, fire, education) in order to try and balance government spending against the shrinking tax base and revenue stream.

  • The reduction in quality of government services in particular and quality of life in general drives more residents and businesses out of the area.

  • Eventually, the expenses, costs and financial liabilities outstrip the reduced tax stream and bankruptcy occurs.


Okay that’s the process. Let’s see  what is going on  in the newest and possibly the  strongest contender  for bankruptcy court.


1)An old saying goes as  follows: "When stuck in  a hole, stop digging." When  businesses and residents  are fleeing your  city or  state because of high  taxes, probably the best first step is to stop increasing  current taxes or introducing new  taxes. 


Apparently, that message has not gotten through the thick  skulls of California politicians, a prime state to go bankrupt as residents and businesses  leave the state,  diminishing the state government tax revenue  stream:


  • California motorists currently suffer from the highest gas tax  burden in the country and  sky high  DMV registration fees while driving  on  some of the worst maintained  roads in the  country.

  • On  top of those burdens, the California Energy Commission has suggested that new  rules be adopted for replacement tires that would  make  about 70% of  the current  vehicle tires on the market ineligible to be sold in the  state.

  • Drivers would have to purchase  tires that are more expensive under  the proposed guidelines.

  • Theoretically, the tires that would be  required would be more fuel-efficient and  better from a safety perspective. 

  • However, how much more those  tires would cost and how much  fuel  they would save is open to debate among  parties involved in the tire  business.


Of  all the problems the state is facing, out-migration of businesses and residents, high crime rates, high homeless rates, massive fraud in government programs, bad roads, bad education system, unfunded  financial liabilities, etc., why is reducing the  variety and increasing the cost of replacement tires even on  politicians' agenda  and priority list?


So the state government will go bankrupt but  at  least the  drivers  left in the  state will have fuel efficient  tires.  Great.


2)But the motor vehicle tax revenue insanity in the  state gets even worse:


  • A recent state government budget item quietly allocates  motor  vehicle  registration money to be used to pay for  security details for state politicians long AFTER they have left office.

  • California taxpayer motorists have already funded Kamala Harris’  security staff during  her  book tour last spring.

  • Once Gavin Newsom  leaves office and starts his Presidential campaign, California drivers will be subsidizing his  security details also even though he  will be a  private citizen  worth tens of millions  of  dollars and who can easily afford to fund his own security arrangements.

  • According  to the  budget line  item, this cost to protect  former politicians will run  about $20 million  a year.

  • California Highway Patrol officers would be taken  off their duties to protect the citizens  and businesses of the state and be used to staff security details for former politicians.


More expensive tires  and more  expensive vehicle  registration fees being  used  to protect wealthy former politicians on top of high  gas taxes and high DMV registration fees. The taxes just keep  on coming  and the residents and businesses who no longer want to live under such heavy tax  burdens keep on  leaving.


3)Thank  goodness there are no other  ways to gouge California motorists out of their  money. But wait,  maybe  there  is another way to get blood out of  a rock:


  • California  Democrats in the state government want California drivers to pay a so-called “mileage tax.”

  • Thus,  in addition  to sky high  gas taxes, high motor vehicle  registration fees, more expensive tires, and  the diverting  of registration  fees to pay for security for former politicians, the  new tax would  assess a per mile tax  for state drivers.

  • Their  new tax would likely be between six and nine cents  a mile driven.

  • Thus, a new annual fee for drivers  could range from $900 to  $1,350 if  a driver drove 15,000  miles  a year.

  • The Reform California  organization estimates  that a typical California family with  two cars could end up paying over $4,000 in mileage fees  a year.

  • This would be on top of the $.90 a gallon in taxes and fees California drivers pay for  every gallon of gas they use.

  • The amount  billed for mileage would be calculated in one of two ways.

  • Drivers could  agree  to have  a GPS tracking unit in their car that would report their mileage or  every year they could  go to a state DMV location  to have their odometer read.

  • And the  other  scary part of this planned new  tax is that Democrats have a  super majority in the  state government which means  that taxpayers will have no say in whether  or not this new tax  gets implemented, Democrats in the legislature can do it without permission of those that will be impacted.


The impact of this  fiasco  is not  just that drivers will pay more. The visiting nurse  that visits sick and shut-in customers will see  her costs go up over $1,000  a year, an increased  cost she will likely pass  onto her customers.  The Door Dash and Uber Eats drivers will see their operating costs go up and will pass those increased costs  on  to their customers. The ripple effect will affect everyone  that is still in  the state, 

whether  they drive a car or not.


So, folks are fleeing California because  of high  costs of living and taxation  and what do California politicians do: they layer on three new  taxation  schemes, more expensive tires, diverting  motor vehicle  registration  fees to protect bygone politicians, and taxing every driver in the  state on mileage. 


Hey, state politicians,  listen up: “when you are in a hole stop digging.” When excessive taxation  is drying  up your tax revenue  steam, at least stop  with the new taxes. 


All  of which confirms that the state government of California hasn't learned any lessons and will continue  to be a  strong  contender  for the first state government to go bankrupt.


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Vote Now!!!! Go to to the following link and vote  on which state  or city government you think  will go bankrupt first:


https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61592458935721


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If you agree that we need to deseat every member of Congress for their lack of success and accomplishment, then please consider going to the following petition link to help the cause:


https://www.change.org/p/deseat-congress-reset-freedom



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Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

The Race To Bankruptcy Court - New York City Tax Stream and Population Continue To Get Hollowed Out and Chicago Has Yet Another Financial Liability

It seems we are in a little bit of a rut in that we seem to be getting overwhelmed with news about our choice for states and major cities that are likely to go bankrupt relatively soon. As always, our top state governments that we think are nearing bankruptcy include New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California. Our top major cities we think are rapidly approaching bankruptcy include New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.

Before reviewing the latest news and seeing which state or city is making the best progress towards government bankruptcy, let’s review how these cities and states got themselves into this financial death spiral position to begin with:

  • A government entity keeps expanding its budget, eventually putting pressure on the tax revenue stream it receives.
  • At some point, rather than cut government spending or make its programs more efficient financially, the politicians in charge raise taxes to meet the ever growing government expenditures.
  • The raising of taxes causes some residents and businesses to leave the city or state for less tax burdensome areas, reducing the tax base and reducing the revenue stream.
  • Rather than cut expenses and become more efficient to match the reduced tax revenue stream, politicians in the above cities or states raise the tax burden even more.
  • This causes more residents and businesses to flee the city or state, further reducing the tax base and tax revenue stream.
  • At some point politicians panic and raise taxes more and start cutting vital government services (e.g. police, fire, education) in order to try and balance government spending against the shrinking tax base and revenue stream.
  • The reduction in quality of government services in particular and quality of life in general drives more residents and businesses out of the area.
  • Eventually, the expenses, costs and financial liabilities outstrip the reduced tax stream and bankruptcy occurs.
Okay that’s the process, now lets check the progress some of the above listed government entities are making to achieve this bankruptcy goal:

1)One of the major indicators that a city is heading towards bankruptcy, as listed above, is that residents and businesses leave that teetering state or city for other areas. The New York Post recently ran an article that highlighted how this is happening in New York state and its cities including New York City:
  • More than 125,000 New York residents have left the state and resettled in Florida over the past five years.
  • Those folks have taken about $14 billion worth of income with them that can no longer be taxed in the state of New York.
  • Over 41,000 of those migrating out of New York ended up in the greater Miami metro area, an area that has seen tremendous growth from out of state people moving in.
  • These numbers come from an analysis done by the Citizens Budget Commission (CBC).
  • Of the $14 billion that left the state, a whopping $10 billion is estimated to come from New York City residents hitting the road.
  • A CBC spokesperson cited affordability, quality of life, and safety from crime as primary drivers for those leaving for Florida.
  • The CBC also noted that the percentage of New York City residents who said life in the city was “good or excellent” dropped from 50% prior to the pandemic to 30% in 2025.
  • Not only does New York state and New York City lose the tax revenue stream from those leaving but overall economic growth is stunted as these mostly higher income folks that are leaving spend their wealth on restaurants, clothes, and other needs outside of the state and city.
  • About 26,000 of those people that left New York for Florida had incomes roughly three times the national average.
  • Since the top 1% of earners in New York City pay 40% of the state’s income tax, the loss of higher earning and higher taxed residents is particularly harmful to the tax base.
  • But those leaving New York City for Florida are not the only ones leaving the city and taking their tax dollars with them since 138,000 city residents have left the city for Long Island, taking over $11 billion in income from the city according to the CBC.
  • Another 120,000 former city residents of the city have moved to Westchester County, NY, Fairfield County in Connecticut, and Bergen County in New Jersey, taking another $11.7 billion in income with them.
  • The average income for these migrants was over $100,000.
  • In 2010, New York City was home to almost 13% of the country’s millionaires but by 2022 that percentage had dropped to under 9%.
Keep in mind that much of this migration of wealthier residents from the city and the state happened before the current administration of Mamdani took over city hall in New York City. And if the state legislature does not raise the income tax rate on wealthy city and state residents, Mamdani has threatened to raise the city tax burden even more across the city by raising the property taxes by over 9%.

Which, if that happens, the increased tax burden will drive more New Yorkers out of the city and further accelerate the city’s financial death spiral into bankruptcy. In our last post we came across a detailed analysis that forecasted Chicago will go bankrupt in 7-12 years. Given the out-migration of wealth and residents from New York City, it is still our contention that New York City will get to bankruptcy court faster than Chicago, given the above wealth migration trends.

2)Let’s take a look at another recent New York Post article that further reinforces the trend of city residents actually leaving the city or thinking about leaving, given the cost and quality of life issues in the city today:

  • According to a recent Marist opinion poll, one in three New York City residents plan on leaving the city and state within the next five years.
  • Reasons cited most often of those desiring to leave include the cost of living and declining quality of life.
  • 86% of those polled said the state is no longer affordable for the average family, up from 82% in 2025.
  • This desire of 33% of those polled planning on leaving the state is up from 27% that planned to leave 15 years ago.
  • According to the United Van Lines 2025 Movers study, more people moved out of New York and New Jersey than any other state.
  • 56% of those polled said they think New York is heading in the wrong direction.
More bad news for the city and state: not only are people already gone or are leaving, many claim that they also will be leaving shortly, hollowing out the tax base and the tax revenue stream, an omen of an impending financial death spiral.

3)Our strong candidate for going bankrupt is the city of Chicago. Our previous post explored that real possibility in depth, including an analysis that forecasted the city would go bankrupt within seven to twelve years, given the shrinking tax revenue base and the unfunded liabilities the city is committed to paying.

While the following financial it is pretty small int he big picture, it certainly does not impede the city’s drive to bankruptcy:
  • A city judge recently ruled that the revenue-strapped city of Chicago will have to refund $163 million to residents due to the fact the city had overcharged them on parking fines.
  • Another $94 million in uncollected fees and fines was also wiped out.
  • According to state law, there is a $250 cap that can be charged for illegally parked vehicles.
  • For years, the city of Chicago violated that state statute.
Again, these millions of dollars are relatively small compared to the billions and billions of dollars of future and current costs and liabilities the city will have to pay for. But this is just another example of bad financial mismanagement by the city’s political class, that is symptomatic of their larger financial incompetence that they have shown over the decades.

That will do it for today: lots of people and tax dollars have already left New York City, a lot of New York state and New York City residents say they are going to leave and take more tax dollars with them, and Chicago finds itself with even more liabilities that have to be paid.


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If you agree that we need to deseat every member of Congress for their lack of success and accomplishment, then please consider going to the following petition link to help the cause:


https://www.change.org/p/deseat-congress-reset-freedom



**********************


Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at: