Showing posts with label kenneth watt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kenneth watt. Show all posts

Friday, March 27, 2020

March, 2020, Part 2, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer in Science: "Expert" Forecasts That Failed Miserably Over Time

Every month we have enough material to return to a continuing theme in this blog, namely that “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.” This became of interest because of people like Al Gore who fanatically and verbosely claimed that you had to be an idiot to not believe in man made global warming. It has been my life belief that anyone that is that loud and that obnoxious is hiding something, that rather than argue facts and reality it is better to beat down and insult anyone who disagrees.

As we have waded through the whole issue of man made global warming, or its new rebranded title of climate change, we found that Al Gore and people like him were guilty of a number of things:
  • Ignoring science and realities that did not support their opinions and positions.
  • Rather than have an adult conversation about climate, these types of advocates like Gore sank to the level of insulting those who dared look at ALL science by calling them a variety of names including racists, homophobes, terrorists, flat earth believers, and other slanderous names.
  • Continuing to insist that politicians step up their intrusions into our lives with higher taxes, more regulations, and more control on our freedoms and standards of living based on a shaky theory at best.
To see the past posts and the multitude of evidence that we have compiled that showed it is perfectly okay to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, enter the phrase "global warming doubter” in the search box above or go through the monthly historical post listed on the right side of this page.

Thus, let’s see the latest facts and science that prove you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, regardless of what Al Gore proclaims.

Today we are going to focus on some environmental forecasts from long ago that were totally wrong, much like all of the major and minor global warming and climate change forecasts of more recent times have also been disastrously wrong. 

These failed forecasts from long ago come from the most recent issue of Reason magazine and an article written by Ronald Bailey. He talks about the first Earth Day event that was fifty years ago and the environmental disaster forecasts that were associated with that first Earth Day. 

The lesson to be learned is that blindly accepting any long term forecasts, even if done by so-called experts, should always be taken with a grain of salt. Many of these experts have books to sell, movies to promote, or egos to be stroked so saying something non controversial doesn't sell books, promote movies or stroke an ego.

Keep in mind that at this point in time fifty years ago, many, many people were just as agitated, concerned, frightened and playing Chicken Little as the latter global warming advocates are. And those advocates fifty years were as wrong as possible by abiding by and believing the forecasts of doom. Let’s see what forecasts went so wrong from five decades ago:

1) Some “experts” warned that cutting the world’s population in half and stopping all economic growth might still not be enough to avoid imminent and worldwide ecological disaster. Since this forecast, the world's population has about doubled without worldwide ecological disaster.

2) Paul Ehrlich, one of the more renowned and failed forecasters of the time predicted that there would be devastating famines around the world that would kill millions of people in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In a 1970 article he predicted that 100 to 200 million people would be dying every year within the next ten years. While there have been periodic famines since then, these mostly localized famines have come nowhere close to killing hundreds of millions of people every year as he predicted.

3) Ehrlich predicted that by the end of 1973, there would be smog crises in Los Angeles and New York that would kill 200,000 Americans. Did not happen.

4) Ehrlich also forecasted that, “Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born” and that by 1975, “some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions.” Did not happen.

5) Other leading “experts” of the time were not as pessimistic as Ehrlich, predicted that the great food shortages and famines would not occur until the 1980s. Did not happen.

6) Harrison Brown, writing for the well regarded National Academy Of Sciences, published an article for Scientific American in September, 1970 that predicted the world would run out of copper in early in the year 2000, which was an optimistic forecast for copper since he predicted we would run out of lead, zinc, tin, gold, silver before the year 1990. Did not happen.

7) In the February 2, 1070 issue of Time magazine, ecologist Kenneth Watt confidently stated that, “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate that there won’t be any more crude oil.” Did not happen.

8) In the January, 1970 issue of Life magazine, we were warned that, “In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution.” Did not happen.

So all these forecasts did not happen, whew! Otherwise we would all be sucking in poisonous air, groveling for food, and be out of most, if not all, valuable minerals. 

So what did happen and how wrong were these “expert” forecasts:

1) While the world’s population did double over the past fifty years, it did not rise as fast as the experts predicted and the fertility rate of humankind went from 4.8 children per woman in 1970 to 2.4 today. And that fertility rate continues to drop which will eventually cause the world’s population to level out naturally and without great famines.

2) Although the world’s population doubled, the world’s food production levels tripled and the average per capita calorie intake increased 25% from 2,400 calories a day to about 3,000 calories a day.

3) U.S. corn yields went from 60 bushels per acre in 1970 to 170 bushels per acre today.

4) We did not run out of crude oil with the U.S. Energy Information Administration now estimating there are about 3.4 trillion barrels of crude oil that could still be recovered, quite a difference from having no crude oil that Watt predicted.

5) Oh, by the way we did not run out of copper. In 1974 the U.S. Geological Survey predicted that there was 417 million tons of copper left in the world that Harrison Brown predicted would be gone by the year 2000. But in the year 2019, the U.S.Geological Survey now estimates there are 803 tons of copper in the world, 803 tons more than Brown predicted would be available. Estimates of zinc reserves went from 236 million in 1974 to 230 million tons in 2019, tin reserves went from 10 million to 4.7 million tons, gold reserves went from 41,000 tons to 54,000 tons and silver reserves went from 187,000 tons to 560,000 tons. Remember, all of these minerals were predicted to be used up by the 1990s.

6) Although the U.S. economy grew 275% from 1970 to 2018, the EPA estimates that the total emissions from six air pollutants dropped by 74%.

7) In 1972, the EPA reported that 30% of the tested waters in the country did not meet the “fishable standard” (i.e. provided fish that were safe to eat) while in 2014, despite population growth and economic growth, that 30% estimate fell by 50% to 15%.

You get the idea. Long term forecasting is not easy. And it is made more unreliable when those making the forecasts are selling books, making movies, stroking their ego or looking for grants and research money to continue their work. The squeaky wheel gets the grease so to speak and for a researcher or expert to stay everything is good and safe and don’t panic, well that does not get the same attention of world ending disaster forecasts.

This doesn't mean we should always reject the opinions of experts, especially when talking about shorter term, more immediate time frames and schedules. We just have to be sure to understand the underlying reasons for making such bombastic predictions, checking those predictions with other experts, and making sure to take them with a grain of salt.

Because while these predictions of disaster and the end of the world may seem real and accurate, they rarely are. And thirty years of failed global warming and climate change predictions and forecasts of doom and gloom prove this point.

Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:

It is also available online at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Please pass our message of freedom onward. Let your friends and family know about our websites and blogs, ask your library to carry the book, and respect freedom for both yourselves and others everyday.

Please visit the following sites for freedom:


http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.bankruptingamerica.org

http://www.conventionofstates.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w



Sunday, June 2, 2019

June, 2019, Part 1, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science: More Failed Doomsday Climate Predictions

On a periodic basis, we revisit a continuing theme in this blog, “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.” Several years ago we started investigating the viability of this position for a number of reasons:
  • It did not appear that global warming advocates were looking at all of the available global warming science, realities, and trends, just those select pieces of information that supported their position.
  • There seemed to be a growing sense of doubt among scientists about whether or not global warming was actually a real thing.
  • We were getting tired of Al Gore and others of his ilk who constantly were calling those that were undecided about global warming a whole litany of slurs including racists, homophobes, and other insulting terms.
After researching and writing about dozens of global warming information sources, we have proven over and over that it is perfectly logical to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science:
  • Realities show that global warming actually stopped about 18 years ago, causing global warming advocates to rebrand their position as “climate change” since “global warming” was no longer an emerging reality.
  • Turns out the major global warming forecast models all turned out to be grossly inaccurate in predicting future climate and warming trends, throwing into doubt whether any man made global warming or climate change was actually happening.
  • Major and reputable scientists and science organizations (e.g. the renowned CERN Institute) were either originally determining that man made global warming and climate control never existed or changing their position to become doubters of what they may have original believed about global warming.
  • Important and prominent scientists around the world were caught manipulating climate data to verify their false claims and forecast models or were outed for at least contemplating changing real world data to match their ill performing analyses and forecasting models.
Previous exposes’ of global warming and climate change theories by using real world numbers, scientific experiments, and the simple act of observing can be accessed in this blog by typing “I am a global warming doubter” in the search box above. At that point, you will be provided many previous posts from this blog including dozens and dozens of information sources that more and more point to a repudiation of Al Gore and others, man made global warming, and man made climate change. The latest proof that you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in sciences is discussed below:

1) Nicolas Loris, writing for the Heritage Foundation on April 22, 2019, reminded us that “On Earth Day, Gloomy Predictions Haven’t Come To Pass:”
  • Earth Day was first celebrated in April, 1970 and since then on subsequent Earth Days “experts” have scared us with their gloom and doom predictions of what mankind was doing to Mother Nature and the climate.
  • For example, note ecologist Kenneth Watt predicted that, “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate … that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, ‘Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, ‘I am very sorry, there isn’t any.'” 
  • Nineteen years later the world is awash in oil, cars that burn that oil burn it much more cleanly and efficiently, and with no end in sight of running out of oil.
  • Watt also predicted that global cooling, not global warming, and nitrogen buildup in the atmosphere would make entire planet’s land unusable.
  • Decades later most of the land on Earth is still usable and by some measures has never been more productive.
  • According to the EPA’s research the combined emissions of the six common air pollutants has decreased a whopping 73% between 1970 and 2017.
  • In fact, research by the World Bank and the United Nations show that extreme poverty and hunger has dropped considerably since that first Earth Day in 1970.
Watt is not the only expert to be so wrong so long ago even though their “expert” predictions at the time scared the life out of us. And as time has gone by, the experts in global warming have also shown to be no better than Watt and others predicting the future.

2) The same article uncovered a very interesting set of statistics, a set that should really cause liberals and global warming advocates to go crazy. Most of the most ardent global warming advocates are Democrats and socialists who see government control, higher taxes, more regulations, and the reduction in personal freedom as the only way to save the Earth. 

Consider two pieces of research:
  1. The Heritage Foundation does an annual index study which measures the relative personal freedom of every country.
  2. Yale University does an Environmental Performance Index that measures countries’ good or bad behaviors against the environment.
And guess what: if you put the two indexes together there is a very high correlation between the two indexes, namely the more freedom a country tolerates the better that country performs relative to the environment. In other words, oppressive government restrictions, taxes and regulations, three things that suppress freedom, are the exact opposite of what should be done when it comes to protecting the Earth. 

According to the article: “Freer economies have access to more products and technologies that make our lives healthier and the environment cleaner. For instance, the availability of simple products such as soaps, cleaners, and detergents makes our homes dramatically cleaner and healthier. The development of sanitation systems and availability of garbage collection greatly reduce many types of diseases and reduce toxins in the air and water. These products and services may not be what immediately comes to mind on Earth Day, but they’ve had an enormous impact on cleaning up the planet.”

So the next time a liberal or Democratic friend espouses how we need government, politicians, and bureaucrats to reduce our freedom to save the world, tell him or her that they are wrong. Freedom heals poverty and now it appears that freedom heals the world.

3) The League Of Power website on April 30, 2019, also went about “Debunking the Latest Climate Change Lies:”
  • In reality, from a global warming perspective, the Earth has not gotten warmer for almost two decades despite the dire warnings from global warming experts that failed to take into account that warming would stop.
  • In fact, in total, the Earth on average has actually cooled for the past four years or so, another reality that was never predicted by global warming advocates
  • In addition, the U.S, has led the world in reducing its greenhouse gas emissions despite pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement.
  • Even the United Nations climate organization, IPCC, has pulled back on its doomsday prediction, claiming back in an October report that “dangerous climate change is half as likely as the IPCC postulated in their 2007 assessment.”
  • According to the Federal government’s NOAA research, the Arctic is in the midst of a multi-year cooling period.
  • Also, the glacial ice in Greenland has stopped shrinking and is now in a growth mode at the fastest rate ever.
  • Carbon dioxide levels today are almost twice as high than what they were in the 1950s and yet there has been no runaway increases in global warming.
More debunking of a global warming myth that we have discussed dozens of times over the years.

4) The following video that was presented by the Liberty Video News website. It records an interview of a Princeton University physicists that shows how the whole global warming/climate change crowd is in actuality a cult:

Okay that will do it for today. Future predictions about climate disasters have not come true, the key to keeping Mother Nature healthy is personal freedom, global warming increases stopped two decades ago, we are actually seeing some global cooling going on, a major glacier is getting larger at a rapid rate, our air is considerably cleaner than it was back in the 1970s, the Arctic is cooling and the U.S. leads the world in reducing its carbon footprint. So much for the gloom and doomers like Al Gore.

Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:

It is also available online at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Please pass our message of freedom onward. Let your friends and family know about our websites and blogs, ask your library to carry the book, and respect freedom for both yourselves and others everyday.

Please visit the following sites for freedom:


http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.bankruptingamerica.org

http://www.conventionofstates.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w





Sunday, February 24, 2019

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Insanity, Part 3: Being "Morally Right" But "Factually Wrong", The Idiocy Of The New Green Deal and More

Over the past few months, New York City Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has established herself as a human gaffe machine. Her inability to do simple math, her outlandish ideas based on an alternative reality, her economic ignorance, and lack of common sense has resulted in an almost daily stream of idiocy, inane comments, and ridiculous ideas that have no basis in reality.

As a result, most of our recent political class insanity posts have almost always had an Ocasio-Cortez piece of insanity. Thus, we have decided to separately track her craziness and idiotic takes on economics, business, government, and whatever else on a regular basis under its own set of posts. She deserves to have a separate effort that captures all of the ridiculousness she espouses.

The format we will do is to start with a set of her original inane ideas and just continue to build on that initial list as time goes by. If the list gets too large, which it is likely to do, we will then find a good breaking point to start another list. We will try to source the original source of all of her gaffes, trying to use her own words that were stated either orally or via her Twitter account, a source of endless inane comments and ideas.

We have already listed out eleven major gaffes from her in the following post:


Thus, we start today’s array of missteps with misstep number 12. The original eleven are listed further down the post after the “*************” line.

12- According to Ocasio-Cortez: “I think that there's a lot of people more concerned about being precisely, factually, and semantically correct than about being morally right." So, according to her philosophy of life, it is better to ignore reality than to ignore what you think should be reality. 

I have trouble dealing with this type of illogical and inane thinking. You cannot resolve any problem in life without knowing the root cause of that problem. This another way of saying find out what the reality of the situation is and then apply the right solutions to that reality. She would rather ignore reality and live in some sort of fantasy world, a perception of life that will never allow here to resolve any of the problems facing the country and the reality we find ourselves in.

She obviously does not understand the reality of some of her proposed socialist programs: Medicare For All, New Green Deal, free college, free daycare, etc. As we have pointed out many times, the country is about to collapse under the crushing debt and unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare. The total of the debt of the Federal and state governments and the unfunded liabilities is well over $100 TRILLION. Since the TOTAL wealth of every American is well under $100 TRILLION, there is simply not enough wealth to fund the financial hole that politicians have already dug for us as a nation.

So why in her mind it might be “morally right” to fund free college, free daycare, Medicare for All etc., the simple reality that she does not understand is that factually there is not enough wealth to fund her morally right programs.

But that is the beauty of existing in a “morally right” alternative like hers. You can get to dream up all of these wonderful ideas, unburdened by reality.

13- One of the more idiotic programs she is proposing is the New Green Deal. This is an impossible program to execute (see her “morally right” obsession above) since it involves transforming the entire country’s energy infrastructure to solar and wind within ten years. She ignores the realities that it took hundreds of years to build the country’s infrastructure up to what it is today, no way that gets replaced in ten years. I say ten years because that is about when she claims the world will end because of manmade climate change unless we listen to her.

Before we conclude why this is such an ignorant statement to make, consider some climate history:
  • In 1970, high regarded biologist Paul Ehrlich predicted that "all important animal life in the sea will be extinct" in 10 years or so. 49 years later most important animal life is still with us. 
  • Also in 1970, Nobel laureate biology professor at Harvard, George Wald, forecasted that: “Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.” 49 years later we are still hanging around. 
  • Also in 1970, Paul Ehrlich, also said that the world’s population would soon outstrip food supplies. 49 years later crop yields are as high as ever and the number of humans starving around has dropped significantly over the past decades. 
  • Ehrlich followed up on this starvation prediction when he claimed that, “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next 10 years.” 49 years later people are still starving but nowhere close to the rate he predicted. 
  • In 1968 he predicted: “If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.” Good thing that he did not lay down that bet since 19 years later England is still hanging around. 
  • Noted British science writer Nigel Calder warned in a July, 1975 International Wildlife article that, “The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind.” So, as recently as about 44 years ago we were all going to die from an Ice Age, not global warming. 
  • Meteorologist C.C. Wallen claimed in 1975 in a Science News article that, “The cooling since 1940 has been large enough and consistent enough that it will not soon be reversed.” But according to other scientists it reversed a few years later when the exact opposite climate trend became popular, global warming. 
  • In 2000, British climate researcher David Viner told The Independent, a British newspaper, that in just “a few years” snow would become a “very rare and exciting event” in Britain and that “children just aren’t going to know what snow is...Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.” In the next few years, Britain experienced some of its lowest temperatures and snowfall accumulations since records started being kept in 1914. Also, given that most of the U.S. Midwest is suffering through below zero temperatures, 19 years after Viner predicted the death of snow, I do not think they would agree with Viner either. 
  • Ecologist Kenneth Watt told a college audience in 1970: “The world has been chilling sharply for about 20 years. If present trends continue, the world will be about 4 degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990 but 11 degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.” But those predictions never came true. 
  • In 1970, Senator Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin wrote in Look magazine: “Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian (Institution), believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.” Not even close 49 years later. 
  • In 2009, self proclaimed climate expert Al Gore predicted that there was an excellent chance that the North Pole would be melted within five years. Ten years later, the ice cap is still there, generating increment amounts of cold air as witnessed by the American living in the Midwest today. 
  • Scientist Harrison Brown predicted in 1970 that mankind would run out of copper shortly after the 2000 and that lead, zinc, gold and silver would be gone ten years earlier. 49 years later, these elements are still around and in good supply. 
So, famous scientists across many different fields, a Nobel laureate, the head of the Smithsonian,and Al Gore have predicted many catastrophic events related to climate. None of them, not a single one of their predictions came true. 

And yet 29 year old, former bartender, non-scientist Ocasio-Cortez wants to upset the entire country’s energy and financial conditions because she predicts the world will end in about a decade. Somehow we should believe her, someone who is not a scientist by any stretch of the imagination, someone who does not know the simple definition of unemployment despite having an economics degree, someone who does not know the three branches of government despite being a member of Congress, and someone who denies reality and lives in a fantasy world of what she considers “morally right.” Insane.

14- Some of the published details of her New Green Deal are really too insane to believe. Consider a direct quote from the proposal: “We set a goal to get to net-zero, rather than zero emissions, in 10 years because we aren’t sure that we’ll be able to fully get rid of farting cows and airplanes that fast, but we think we can ramp up renewable manufacturing and power production, retrofit every building in America, build the smart grid, overhaul transportation and agriculture, plant lots of trees and restore our ecosystem to get to net-zero."

A number of observations: 
  • She wants to get rid of cows because they fart methane and that destroys the climate. So, while we are destroying our dairy industry, China and India alone are proceeding with building about 2,400 carbon spewing coal plants that will overwhelm the reduction in cow farting that the U.S. manages to do. 
  • She wants to destroy the airline industry while the rest of the world continues to fly about using their airplanes while in the U.S. we are forced to walk, use a non-existent national train system, or just stay home. Keep in mind that California could not build a single high speed train line despite years and billions of dollars of trying so to think an inept Federal government can do it any better to replace airline travel is a “morally right” fantasy. 
  • Within ten years she wants to retrofit EVERY building in America, overhaul transportation, and overhaul agriculture. But this is a government that after hundreds of years, still cannot operate a postal system efficiently and effectively. This is a government that after decades still cannot operate a non-high speed train system (Amtrak) efficiently and effectively. To think it can do anything right of any magnitude is crazy. 
Look, let’s face a few realities: 
  • The Federal government is not capable of doing what she wants it to do, not in ten years, not in a hundred years. 
  • This plan will destroy entire industries, e.g. agriculture and airlines, and not provide a suitable replacement industries….in addition to eliminating cheese, yogurt and milk from our diets once she kills off all of the farting cows. 
  • To think the rest of the world will follow our example is a total pipe dream, the rest of the world will continue to expand and use coal, oil, airplanes, and cows to expand and improve their economies, the world’s failure to live up to the Paris Climate Agreement proves this point emphatically. 
  • The devastation caused by moving to purely renewable sources of energy will be devastating to the Earth; wind turbines kill millions of birds every year, more wind turbines will kill billions more, the mining of precious metals for solar cells is a dirty and ecologically devastating process, mining more of those metals, assuming enough of them can be found and mined, will be more devastating. 
  • The production of batteries to store the renewable energy will also be a disaster for nature and virtually impossible to implement; we have already shown that for California to get to 80% renewable energy it would have to deploy 500 million Tesla Powerwall units to store and supply constant electrical power. To do this for the entire U.S. in ten years would be impossible, would require millions of acres of land which would devastate the ecology of major parts of the country and billions of storage units, and would cost trillions of dollars to produce, deploy and operate. 
Alright, enough already. This is an Ocasio-Cortez plan that fails on so many levels in so many ways. But this is what happens when someone lives in a “morally right” fantasy world, the facts and realities listed above do not enter into their thinking. This guarantees that at some point in time reality will jump up and bite her fantasy plans where the sun does not shine, ensuring failure and devastation of our economy, our freedoms, and our safety.

And while her gaffes may make us smile, given how out of touch she is with reality, sadly remember that she helps write and vote on legislation that affects all of us.

Never forget: M.A.B.A. - Make Alexandria a Bartender Again which would allow her to screw up a drink or two but not screw up the country or our freedoms.
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8-Probably most people now know that Amazon has decided not to create a mega headquarters location in Queens, New York and has pulled out of its plans there. If the plan had been executed, 25,000 very high paying jobs would have come to the city which would have resulted in even more jobs in the construction, building materials, retail, restaurant, and other industries that would have serviced the 25,000 high paying employees.

In addition, Amazon was willing to do the following additional niceties to make the deal even better: 
  • Amazon would invest $2.5 billion in developing the location for their headquarters location. 
  • This $2.5 billion would result in a load of high paying construction jobs and ancillary jobs and economic benefit to the area, e.g. food trucks to service the construction workers. 
  • Eventually Amazon would station 25,000 employees at the location, highly paid employees that would buy and renovate housing in the area, eat in local restaurants, go to local movie theaters, buy clothes from local merchants, buy furniture to furnish their new homes, spend money on local transportation, etc. 
  • Amazon promised to provide computer science course to 130 area high schools. 
  • Amazon promised to hire at least 30 people from a nearby housing complex to work in its call center. 
  • Amazon would help fund local infrastructure improvements. 
  • Amazon would help fund a new 600 seat public school 
  • Amazon would create a 3.5 acre waterfront park open to the public. 
  • Amazon would set aside 25,000 square feet for a “community facility use/artist workspace.” 
  • Amazon would set aside 10,000 square feet for an art and tech accelerator. 
  • Amazon would set aside 263,000 square feet for light manufacturing space. 
  • Amazon would set aside 10,000 square feet for workforce development and training space. 
  • Amazon would set up internships for high school students. 
  • Amazon, starting in 2020, would host semi-annual job fairs and resume workshops at the local housing complex for at least three years. 
In return, local New York government entities promised Amazon a $3 billion tax break down the road. We estimated that the local government entities would have reached a breakeven on that $3 billion incentive in less than 8 years and after that, the increased taxes from the Amazon effort would have all been incremental tax revenue.

But leave it to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and several of her other socialist friends, to screw up a great deal for the citizens of New York City. Their constant complaining about the $3 billion finally caused Amazon management to say this effort is not worth hassles.

Even worse, Ocasio-Cortez showed her total ignorance when she said that the $3 billion could be better spent on local infrastructure needs, better schools, better subways, etc. What she failed to understand is that there is no $3 billion pot of money sitting around that was going to be given to Amazon. Amazon would have paid less in taxes to the tune of $3 billion over time. Local city government entities would have gotten a little less in tax money from Amazon initially, the $3 billion does not exist as of today.

Even MSNBC, a news outlet that hates everything Trump and freedom and loves everything Democrat and socialism stepped up to show how ignorant she was: “What’s shocking to me is once again she shows how little she understands not just economics but even unemployment. She’s the one who said the reason unemployment is so low is because a lot of people have two jobs. She needs to learn basic things about what it is to be a representative … Just because she has a progressive agenda, which some people like, does not mean she has the city’s best interest. She showed me she only cares about herself and not about her colleagues ... and not about the people she represents because those people would be getting jobs themselves.”

If MSNBC thinks a Democrat show little understanding about basic concepts and cares only about herself, you know that it is that bad.

9- But being ignorant about the $3 billion, thinking that it is a pot of money that was just going to be handed over to Amazon, was not her only gaffe in this area. Consider this piece of insanity from her: “So I firmly believe that if we want to take that $3 billion dollars that we were willing to give to Amazon and invest it in our local community, we can do that. We can make those jobs. We can make 25,000 jobs. But we don’t have to give away and allow our subway system to crumble so that Amazon essentially owns a part of New York City. We can create 25,000 jobs with Mom-and-Pops.”

So much wrong with this ignorance:
  • There is no $3 billion that can be invested in the local community. 
  • Why would you want to make jobs, when Amazon as willing to hand you 25,000 high paying jobs without any effort on your part? 
  • I can almost guarantee that the 25,000 jobs that you might be able to make with “Mom and Pops’ would on average pay nowhere near $150,000 a year. 
  • And again, there is no $3 billion pot of money that she could use to fix a crumbling subway system. 
As a result of her stupidity on the subject, her constituents will not see the incredible opportunity that Ocasio-Cortez helped scare away because of her idiocy when it comes to the incentive program, a simple concept that most people would understand with little trouble….except her.

10- Recently, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) recently arrested a very dangerous MS-13 gang member Ramiro Gutierrez, 26 who allegedly murdered someone in Ocasio-Cortez’s Congressional district. According to the Daily Wire: “Gutierrez was arrested by authorities on Monday and charged on Tuesday with second-degree murder, gang assault, and criminal possession of a weapon. The victim has been identified as Abel Mosso, a 20-year-old reported member of the 18th Street Gang, a rival gang of MS-13. The brutal video shows a group of men wrestling on the ground. The shooter, allegedly Gutierrez, then unloads six shots, reportedly at the victim’s face. As chaos ensues from horrified passersby, the suspect flees the scene, leaving his victim’s lifeless body.”

Gutierrez had been arrested 12 prior times and was free on bail on an attempted murder charge. Nice guy. One would have thought that the Congressional member representing that district would have had some sympathy for someone murdered in her district. Instead, she showed her lack of caring by not attacking the murderer but by attacking the government’s immigration officers: “This is one of the most urgent moral issues and crises that we have in America right now. This is not a political issue. Children dying in detention centers should not be a partisan concern. It should be a universal concern for every American in the United States. ICE operates with virtually no accountability, ripping apart families and holding our friends and neighbors indefinitely in inhumane detention centers scattered across the United States. We’re here to say that an agency like ICE, which repeatedly and systematically violates human rights, does not deserve a dime.”

So many issues with this stupidity:
  • ICE is accountable to the laws of the country, it is not operating like some sort of Gestapo agency. 
  • My “friends and neighbors” are law abiding U.S. citizens, not illegal immigrants, a group that includes violent MS-13 gang members, violent drug cartel agents, human traffickers, and ordinary criminals. 
  • Obviously, Ocasio-Cortez thinks that this latter group of people are her friends and neighbors, people who came here illegally, many of whom intend to do some nasty things to Americans once here. 
  • And “children dying in detention centers” is a incredibly inflammatory and wrong-headed thing to say; to my knowledge no child has died when in ICE custody and shame on her for implying that many illegal immigrant kids have died. 
  • Much like she does not care who gets murdered in her district by illegal criminal elements, she obviously does not care about the thousands of U.S. kids that are killed, abused, and attacked every year in this country. 
She is just another one of the new brand of Democrats in this country that care more about foreigners than U.S. citizens, espousing lies to make that point.

11- And finally for today, it looks like it not take her long to get into the swing of unethical behavior in Washington: 
  • She could be in violation of the House ethics rules. 
  • Ocasio-Cortez received campaign served and support from a millionaire donor. 
  • But the campaign could not afford his services and rather than having the campaign take out a loan, she likely paid the donor directly out of her pocket. 
  • In turn, the donor then hired Ocasio-Cortez’s boyfriend which means that the donor was getting paid directly by the Congresswoman while at the same time paying her boyfriend, a little nepotism. 
  • This could be interpreted as donating indirectly to her campaign. 
  • Ocasio-Cortez subsequently hired the donor to be her chief of staff, possibly rewarding him for hiring her boyfriend. 
  • When it then became apparent that she had hired her boyfriend to be on her staff, she tried to deny that reality out of existence. 
  • All of this from a Congressional candidate that raged against this type of nepotism and cronyism. 
More insanity from Ocasio-Cortez: too ignorant to understand tax incentives and rebates which has cost her Congressional district billions and billions of dollars in benefits, turning her back on 25,000 highly paid taxpayers, lying about our brave immigration officers, caring more about illegal immigrants than U.S. citizens, and hypocritically raging against nepotism while wasting no time to be what she claimed to despise.

And while her gaffes may make us smile, given how out of touch she is with reality, sadly remember that she helps write and vote on legislation that affects all of us.

Never forget: M.A.B.A. - Make Alexandria a Bartender Again which would allow her to screw up a drink or two but not screw up the country or our freedoms.

1- Despite supposedly having an economics degree, she made an initial fool of herself when she claimed that the reason the unemployment rate was so low was because so many Americans had to work more than one job to get by. Any halfway smart high school economics class student could probably tell her that the unemployment rate calculation does not care how many jobs a person is working, just whether or not they are working. And yet this college graduate had no idea.

2- She compounded this lack of knowledge on the unemployment rate by claiming that the number of people in this country holding multiple jobs was large and growing. However, a simple check of government statistics would show her that the number of people holding multiple jobs is actually quite small and shrinking, the exact opposite of what she claimed. Thus, she was either lying or making up a reality not based on actual data.

3- Despite being an elected member of Congress, she erroneously claimed that the structure of our government process included three branches: the Presidency, the Senate and the House of Representatives. Pretty sure that the Supreme Court justices were surprised to find out that they were no longer a branch of the government.

4- A financial audit of the Pentagon found that over a twenty year period, about $21 TRILLION in budget dollars was mishandled, misclassified, or not accounted for properly. Rather than understand the audit, she immediately and incorrectly assumed that the Pentagon had misspent and wastefully spent $21 TRILLION.

However, if she had done a simple math and logic calculation based on history and actual data, she would have found out that the ENTIRE Pentagon budget over that twenty year period was only about $12 TRILLION, making it impossible to waste $21 TRILLION when the budget was about 40% less than that. This idiocy earned the highest level of lying from the Washington Post, the dreaded four Pinocchios: ”Ocasio-Cortez is not the first Twitter user to mangle information from a news report. But it’s unconvincing to try to pass this off as a rhetorical point being misread. She cited the $21 trillion figure and said ‘66% of Medicare for All could have been funded already by the Pentagon.’ That’s a direct comparison. It’s badly flawed. The same article she referenced on Twitter would have set her straight. The tweet is still up, probably causing confusion. So we will award Four Pinocchios to Ocasio-Cortez.”

5- As a socialist and/or communist, Ocasio-Cortez wants to impose massive socialism/communism programs on the country. One of her favorite pipe dreams is the so-called “Medicare For All” program that would put people like her and the Federal government in charge of every aspect of every American’s health care. A generally accepted cost estimate for this disaster is $32 TRILLION over the first ten years or about $3.2 TRILLION a year. She proposed funding this program by raising the marginal tax rate to a whopping 70% on every dollar over $10 million that any American earned. 

However, a simple calculation using public IRS data easily shows that such a plan would raise only about $50 billion a year at most, or about only 1.5% of the amount needed for the Medicare for All program. Thus, she has really, really bad math skills (highly likely given the gaffes we discussed above), she is lazy and did not do this simple calculation, or she is a liar, claiming that the rich would fund the entire program.

6- Prior to being sworn in to Congress but after being elected, she railed against Congressional members for still drawing a salary even though 800,000 Federal employees were not being paid during the government shutdown. However, once elected, she refused to not draw a salary, ducking press questions about her massive hypocrisy on the matter of berating those that took a salary in December but refusing to not draw a salary after she was sworn in in late January.

7- In a Twitter spat she had with a healthcare expert, she put forth the following tweet: ““Actually, we have for-profit “death panels” now: they are companies + boards saying you’re on your own bc they won’t cover a critical procedure or medicine.” 

As always, she is talking about a subject she knows nothing about and has not done the research for. For starters, anyone with an ObamaCare insurance policy has to have critical procedures and medicine covered. Second, According to the National Conference of State Legislatures: “There are more than 1,900 such statutes [statutes that guarantee medical coverage/treatment] among all 50 states; another analysis tallies more than 2,200 individual statute provisions, adopted over a 30+ year period.”

Do we have a health care issue and overall health insurance issue in this country? We certainly do, for a minority of citizens, but there is nothing close to being a set of death panels in this country being operated by greedy corporations, there are loads of safeguards to prevent death panels, safeguards that obviously do not exist in her world or mind.

Okay seven major faux pas and she has only be in office for about a month. Unfortunately, we have a whole folder of other bouts of idiocy and bad math that we will present over the coming weeks and months.

And while her gaffes may make us smile, given how out of touch she is with reality, sadly remember that she helps write and vote on legislation that affects all of us.

Never forget: M.A.B.A. - Make Alexandria a Bartender Again which would allow her to screw up a drink or two but not screw up the country or our freedoms.


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It is also available online at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Please pass our message of freedom onward. Let your friends and family know about our websites and blogs, ask your library to carry the book, and respect freedom for both yourselves and others everyday.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w



Tuesday, May 31, 2016

May,2016, Part 3, I Am A Global Warming Dubter and A Believer In Science: Past Forecasts Go Down In Flames, Ice Build Up At The South Pole and More

Every month we have enough material to return to a continuing theme in this blog, namely that “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.”This became of interest because of people like Al Gore who fanatically and verbosely claimed that you had to be an idiot to not believe in manmade global warming. It has been my life belief that anyone that is that loud and that obnoxious is hiding something, that rather than argue facts and reality it is better to beat down and insult anyone who disagrees.

As we have dove into the whole issue of manmade global warming, or its new rebranded title of climate change, we found that Al Gore and people like him were guilty of a number of things:

  • Ignoring science and realities that did not support their opinions and positions.
  • Rather than have an adult conversation about climate, these types of advocates like Gore sank to the level of insulting those who dared look at ALL science by calling them a variety of names including racists, homophobes, terrorists, flat earth believers, and other slanderous names.
  • Continuing to insist that politicians step up their intrusions into our lives with higher taxes, more regulations, and more control of our freedoms and standards of living based on a shaky theory at best.
To see the past posts and the multitude of evidence that we have compiled that showed it is perfectly okay to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, enter the phrase "global warming doubter” in the search box above or go through the monthly historical posts listed on the right side of this page.

Thus, let’s see the latest facts and science that prove you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, regardless of what Al Gore proclaims:

1) Yesterday, we discussed the reality that despite Al Gore predicting that the North Pole could be ice free by 2013, his forecast could not be any further from the truth. Others of his ilk have also forecasted a similar disaster for the South Pole. However, according to NASA researchers back in 2014, on September 19, 2014, the five day average of Antarctic sea ice area exceeded 20 million square kilometers for the first time since 1979. This data finding came from NASA’s National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Now, some NASA scientists involved with the work said that this is now perfectly normal from a global warming theory perspective. That global warming is changing weather patterns which is causing the South Pole to get colder and expand its ice pack. Yes, global warming is causing more iced to form in the South Pole. Think about that for a minute, warming = more ice. 

For all I know or do not know, they could be right: global warming is causing more ice at the South Pole. What I do have a problem with, though, from a scientific perspective, is that none of the historical forecasts of global warming predicted this situation, warming = more ice. Thus, it brings into doubt their theory since they obviously missed this phenomenon when they put their climate models together, which implies that they really do not understand what is going on. They provide many theories of why the South Pole is getting colder but that is all they have is theories. 

Again, they may be right. But they have no idea why this is happening which implies that they do not understand the whole climate picture which means, contrary to what Al Gore says, the “science is NOT settled.”

2) Continuing with the South Pole ice pack expanding story, maybe what we are seeing is just the long term cyclical changes to the climate, that we are in a period of time when the planet is a little warmer while at the same time the South Pole is getting bigger with humanity’s use of carbon fuel having no or little impact on the long term cycle. 

Consider a simple historical chart that was recently published on the Federalist Papers website:



Thus, if you believe the work done by these scientists, Cliff Harris and Randy Mann, the world and its climate has been much warmer in the past, long before mankind was using a lot of carbon based fuel sources. Their data shows that climate is a long term cycle with warming periods interspersed with cooling periods regardless of what species is dominant on Earth. 
In fact, based on their data and analysis, whenever solar radiation has decreased and volcanic activity has increased, global temperatures suddenly drop, often within weeks or months. Over time, this has caused 75 major climate swings throughout the Earth’s history.
Their findings are consistent with the work of CERN scientists several years ago where in laboratory conditions they showed that solar activity has a much bigger effect on climate than anything mankind does. That research was summarized at:http://loathemygovernment.blogspot.com/2012/02/i-am-global-warming-doubter-and.htmlLook at ALL of the data, not just the data that proves a pre-determined conclusion, that is all global warming doubters are looking for.3) Let’s finish up today with a brief look back at the major climate forecast screw ups over time. We have previously discussed many of these so we know the sources are good but I recently came across this brief history of climate mania proven wrong:
  1. -Biologist Paul Ehrlich predicted in the 1970s that: “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” and that “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.” Comments: While far too many people die from starvation every year, that is mostly caused by wars and bad politicians, not the climate devastation that Ehrlich predicted.
  2. -In January 1970, Life magazine reported, “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….” Comment: While true in many Chinese cities because of fast economic growth, that is certainly not the case in just about every other city around the world and certainly not the case in this country.
  3. -In January 2006 Al Gore predicted that we had ten years left before the planet turned into a "total frying pan." Comment: Wrong again, Al.
  4. -In 2008, a segment aired on ABC News predicted that NYC would be under water by June 2015. Comment: Not even close.
  5. -In 1970, ecologist Kenneth E.F. Watt predicted that “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but 11 degrees colder by the year 2000, This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age.” Comment: Even the global cooling scientists got it wrong.
  6. - In 2008, Al Gore predicted that there is a 75% chance that the entire north polar ice cap would be completely melted within 5-7 years. He at least hedged that prediction by giving himself “75%” certainty. Comment: Wrong again, Al.
  7. -On May 13th 2014 France’s foreign minister said that we only have 500 days to stop “climate chaos.” The recent Paris climate summit met 565 days after his remark. Comment: No chaos.
  8. -In 2009, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center head James Wassen warned that Obama only had four years left to save the earth. Comment: Obama could not even save his Presidency from incompetence never mind saving the world.
  9. -On the first Earth Day, its sponsor warned that “in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.” Comment: Not quite.
  10. -And another Earth Day prediction from Kenneth Watt: “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.” Comment: So at one point in this scientific mess nitrogen was the problem, not carbon. My, how times have changed.
That will do it for today, more proof that being a global warming doubter and a believer in science is a sane thing to be. Us doubters are all for analyzing a potential problem and taking the right steps to fix the situation if it is a problem. Al Gore types have already pre-determined what the problem is and how to fix it, which always involves us giving up our freedom and wealth and giving it to powerful interests that people like Al Gore represent. In some situations this is caused a shake down, in the global warming world it is called saving the planet from what could very well be a myth.

More global warming insanity tomorrow.