Daniel Moynihan's Welfare Prediction Accuracy From 1965

I have never been a fan of the great majority of politicians. I find them shallow, selfish, and incapable of resolving even the smallest of problems and issues facing the country. However, there are a small handful that were willing to be honest and tried to fix what was broken, putting the country ahead of their self enrichment and ego. One of them was Daniel Moynihan, a U.S. Senator from New York and U.S. ambassador to the U.N.

Three things impressed me about Moynihan. First, he was just plain smarter than most of his peers in his day and today’s politicians. Second, although he was a Democrat, he never hesitated to criticize Democrats or liberals when they deserved to be criticized. And finally, he is one of the few politicians who accurately predicted anything correctly.

Back in the mid-1960s, he predicted that the growth of the welfare state in this country would result in the breakdown of the black family structure in our cities and lead to “crime, violence, unrest, disorder.” The following are excerpts from a paper he wrote 50 years ago:

From the wild Irish slums  of the 19th century Eastern seaboard, to the riot-torn suburbs of Los Ageles , there is one unmistakable lesson in American history; a community that allows a large number of men to grow up in broken families, dominated by women, never acquiring any stable relationship to male authority, never acquiring any set of rational expectations about the future -- that community asks for and gets chaos. Crime, violence, unrest, disorder -- most particularly the furious, unrestrained lashing out at the whole social structure -- that is not only to be expected; it is very near to inevitable. And it is richly deserved.

...

The majority of Negro children receive public assistance under the AFDC program at one point or another in their childhood. At present, 14 percent of Negro children are receiving AFDC assistance, as against 2 percent of white children. Eight percent of white children receive such assistance at some time, as against 56 percent of nonwhites, according to an extrapolation based on NEW data. …

...

Again, the situation may be said to be worsening. The AFDC program, deriving from the long established Mothers' Aid programs, was established in 1935 principally to care for widows and orphans, although the legislation covered all children in homes deprived of parental support because one or both of their parents are absent or incapacitated. 

…

The steady expansion of this welfare program, as of public assistance programs in general, can be taken as a measure of the steady disintegration of the Negro family structure over the past generation in the United States.

Daniel Patrick Moynihan - The Negro Family: The Case For National Action

Office of Policy Planning and Research, United States Department of Labor, March 1965

What has happened in the African American community since he wrote that paper 50 years ago? Let’s see:

• 71% of African American children are born into a single parent household, up from about 25% when he wrote this paper.
• This compares to 53% of Hispanic children and 36% of white children.
• Kids from homes with single and unmarried moms are five times more likely to live in poverty and 40% less likely to graduate from high school.

But it gets worse, according to a May 15, 2015 NewsMax article written by Ed Moy:

• Since Obama became President, African American unemployment has increased 60%.
• In that same time period, the Black/White wealth gap has grown to a 24-year high.
• African Americans who live in poverty have increased to 27%.
• Only 1.7% of Federal Small Business Administration loans went to Black businesses, compared to 8% under the administration of President George W. Bush.

So it appears that Moynihan was right. Unbridled growth in the welfare state has not lifted a whole lot of African Americans out of poverty. In fact, according to a Washington Post article and its graphs from a few years ago, seen below, it has not lifted a whole lot of anybody out of poverty,  the poverty rate in this country has remained about constant since the mid-1960s despite spending upwards of $20 TRILLION to reduce it (double click on the graph to enlarge)



What is also very interesting this graph is that the poverty rate was falling dramatically from the late 1950s into the mid 1960s. At that point, the Federal government and LBJ’s “War On Poverty” kicked in and the downward trend in reducing the poverty percentage stopped declining almost overnight. Which raises the obvious question: did the Federal government growth in welfare programs actually STOP the decline in the poverty rate?

But even as the poverty level percentage remained unchanged over a fifty year period, the government and taxpayer spending to try and reduce it grew at an almost exponential rate with no corresponding effect on poverty:



And while the percentage of African Americans living in poverty has shrunk over the past fifty years, it is still more than double the poverty rate of white and Asian Americans and the African American poverty rate is now growing significantly faster than the poverty rate of other races:

So, maybe it is time to revisit the insights Moynihan published fifty years ago since:

• The African-American family breakdown he predicted has occurred as the Federal government and Washington political class spent more and more on welfare programs which made it easier for single parents to have and support children without a family infrastructure to make it happen.
• African American kids’ futures are not much better than they were fifty years ago, and possibly quite worse, given crime levels, low high school graduation levels, etc.
• Despite spending upwards of $20 TRILLION since the LBJ administration, African American poverty levels and employment levels and opportunities have not improved much at all.

Another political class effort that has failed miserably, expensively, and which may have made the original perceived problem even worse. And Moynihan saw it all coming decades ago.

But his insights should not surprise us since even though he was a member of that same political class, he also had two insightful observations about it:

The single most exciting thing you encounter in government is competence, because it is so rare.

Somehow liberals have been unable to acquire from life what conservatives seem to be endowed with at birth: namely, a healthy skepticism of the powers of government agencies to do good.

Great insights but let me add another from another brilliant man, Albert Einstein: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”

Maybe it is time to stop the insanity of the past fifty years and find a way to compassionately transition from the destructive Federal government welfare programs that Moynihan warned us about in 1965 into a new paradigm, where government programs actually do what they are supposed to do at a lower cost without ripping the concept of family apart. That would certainly make Moynihan excited and happy and a lot of Americans better off than they are today.Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:

www.loathemygovernment.com

It is also available online at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Please pass our message of freedom onward. Let your friends and family know about our websites and blogs, ask your library to carry the book, and respect freedom for both yourselves and others everyday.

Please visit the following sites for freedom:

Term Limits Now: http://www.howmuchworsecoulditget.com
http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.bankruptingamerica.org
http://www.conventionofstates.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w

December, 2014, Part 2, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science: Climate Predictions That Went Oh So Wrong

Several years ago we decided to look into the popular craze at that time that the world was warming and global warming was going to wipe out humanity. Rather than just assume that global warming advocates like Al Gore were correct, we wanted to look at ALL of the science, ALL of the climate data, and All of the realities of global warming.

And to be perfectly honest, we were tired of Al Gore, Barack Obama and other global warming advocates yelling at global warming doubters like myself, calling us racists, homophobes, flat earth believers, etc. In order to have a mature, adult conversation about global warming, we felt it was necessary to treat those with a different opinion with respect not derision and that to get to an adult solution, all of the science should be included in the debate.

Over the years, however, we have put together a very strong case that man made global warming and its rebranded marketing theme, climate change, were indeed mostly a false position, a travesty of science. Those who believed in global warming ignored or failed to consider scientific findings and research that was contrary to their views.

They were found to have suppressed or changed raw data and findings that did not support their global warming positions. In short, they were the ones that had shortchanged the scientific method, not the doubters.

To review our past reviews of the global warming fallacy, type in the phrase, “I am a global warming doubter” in the search box above. Over the next few days we will continue to look at the latest climate data and realities and again prove that being a global warming doubter is a position that is strongly supported by science and not Al Gore hysterics.

Yesterday’s post ended with the review of three dire climate forecasts from decades ago that turned out to be incredibly wrong. At the time those forecasts were made, they were done with the same veracity and emotion as Al Gore types make climate predictions today.

Since these historic predictions turned out to be so horribly wrong, their fallacy casts some doubts whether those same types of forecasts being made today of dire consequences due to man made global warming and climate change are also bound to go horribly wrong. We went over them not to mock them but to point out if this country is ever going to have a serious discussion about climate change, all history, all science, all reality needs to be taken into account in that discussion, even the views of doubters like myself.

Today we are going to look at even more global warming and climate change forecasts, views, and predictions that have gone horribly wrong even though those making those predictions claimed to have science on their side. The source of this erroneous predictions comes from the website:

\

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/05/friday-funny-over-a-centurys-worth-of-failed-eco-climate-quotes-and-disinformation/

They were posted on the site on December 4. 2014  by Tom Scott:

- “Scientist says Arctic ice will wipe out Canada, Professor Gregory of Yale University stated that ‘another world ice-epoch is due.’ He was the American representative to the Pan-Pacific Science Congress and warned that North America would disappear as far south as the Great Lakes, and huge parts of Asia and Europe would be wiped out.” Chicago Tribune August 9, 1923. Comment: a guess in the 1920s global cooling was the latest rage among climate scientists, a reality that never materialized.

- “The discoveries of changes in the sun’s heat and southward advance of glaciers in recent years have given rise to the conjectures of the possible advent of a new ice age.”  Time Magazine, September 10, 1923. Comment: More global cooling advocates.

- “America [is] in longest warm spell since 1776; temperature line records a 25 year rise." New York Times 3/27/1933. Comment: by the 1930s it appears that global cooling had reversed itself into global warming, a mere ten years after Time magazine predicted global cooling.

- “After a week of discussions on the causes of climate change, an assembly of specialists from several continents seems to have reached unanimous agreement on only one point: it is getting colder.“ New York Times, January 30, 1961. Comment: Whoops, back to global cooling.

- “Like an outrigger canoe riding before a huge comber, the earth with its inhabitants is caught on the downslope of an immense climatic wave that is plunging us toward another Ice Age.“ Los Angeles Times, December 23, 1962.

- “It is now pretty clearly agreed that the CO2 content [in the atmosphere] will rise 25% by 2000. This could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter.“ Presidential adviser Daniel Moynihan, 1969 (later U.S. Senator  from New York 1976-2000). Comment: At last look, New York and Washington D.C. were still above water and dry.

- “If present trends continue, the world will be … eleven degrees colder by the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age.” Kenneth E.F. Watt in “Earth Day,” 1970. Comment: Wow, within one year of Moynihan’s prediction we went from global warming to Watt’s global cooling world.

- “Because of increased dust, cloud cover and water vapor “…the planet will cool, the water vapor will fall and freeze, and a new Ice Age will be born.” Newsweek magazine, January 26, 1970.  Comment: support for a new Ice Age continues to build.

- “New Ice Age Coming—It’s Already Getting Colder. Some midsummer day, perhaps not too far in the future, a hard, killing frost will sweep down on the wheat fields of Saskatchewan, the Dakotas and the Russian steppes." Los Angles Times Oct 24, 1971

- “Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000.” Los Angles Times, May 16, 1972. Comment: at last look, the Arctic ice cap was growing significantly and was nowhere close to being ice-free.

- “New York will probably be like Florida 15 years from now.” St. Louis Post-Dispatch Sept. 17, 1989. Comment: Pendulum swings back to global warming in less than twenty years but New York is nothing like Florida twenty five years later.

- “By 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots… “(By 1996) The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers… “The Mexican police will round up illegal American migrants surging into Mexico seeking work as field hands.”’ Michael Oppenheimer, “Dead Heat” 1990. Comment: wrong on every single prediction.

- “At present rates of exploitation there may be no rainforest left in 10 years. If measures are not taken immediately, the greenhouse effect may be unstoppable in 12 to 15 years.“ Edward Goldsmith, 5000 Days to Save the Planet, 1991. Comment: 23 years later the rain forest is still large and in existence and the warming due to the so-called greenhouse effect stopped about 18 years ago.

- “Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event. Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” Dr David Viner, Senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, March 20, 2000. Comment: I am pretty sure that all kids that lived through the polar vortex this past winter would disagree with Mr. Viner.

- “Environmental refugees to top 50 million in 5 years –‘There are well-founded fears that the number of people fleeing untenable environmental conditions may grow exponentially as the world experiences the effects of climate change and other phenomena.” UNU-EHS Director Janos Bogardi – United Nations University news release, October 11, 2005. Comment: while there have been millions of refugees over the past decade, the vast majority of them, if not all, have not been caused changing climate or environmental conditions.

- “Arctic warming has become so dramatic that the North Pole may melt this summer (2008), report scientists studying the effects of climate change in the field. ‘We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history].’” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker, National Geographic News, June 20, 2008. Comment: six short years after this dire prediction, the polar ice cap is growing in size, not going away.

- “Mike [Mann], can you delete any e-mails you may have had with Keith [Trenberth] re AR4? Keith will do likewise…Can you also e-mail Gene and get him to do the same? I don’t have his e-mail address…We will be getting Caspar to do likewise.” Dr. Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit, Climategate e-mail, May 29, 2008 (AR4 was the 4^th Climate Assessment report released by the IPCC in 2007). Comment: these are the scientists that Al Gore types rely on, scientists that try to cover up and destroy evidence that their predictions have been wrong all along.

Hopefully you get the idea. Throughout the past hundred years, scientists have swung wildly in their predictions of climate change from the birth of new ice ages to the death of humanity due to global warming. In all cases, their drastic predictions have not come true even though they were probably viewed as the leading scientists and experts of their time.

More recently we have pointed out that so-called “sophisticated climate forecasting models have almost always been way off in predicting global warming trends:

Given this history of poor and poorer prediction of climate change, do we really want to not question Al Gore, Barack Obama,  and others like them and blindly accept their predictions when history predicts they will be grossly wrong?

Are we really willing to sacrifice our economic growth and well being based on this history of incorrect forecasting and the reality that no matter what the U.S. does relative to carbon output those actions will be overwhelmed by the growth in the carbon output by countries like China and India?

These are the questions that need to be addressed in a mature and adult manner as opposed to the slur-infested dialog that global warming advocate sling at doubters in climate discussions. But that discussion is unlikely to ever happen, given the lack of leadership and maturity in the Washington political class, both current members and former members of that class.

More science and realities tomorrow where we continue to show that it is more correct to be a global warming doubter than a global warming advocate.

Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:

www.loathemygovernment.com

It is also available online at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Please pass our message of freedom onward. Let your friends and family know about our websites and blogs, ask your library to carry the book, and respect freedom for both yourselves and others everyday.

Please visit the following sites for freedom:

Term Limits Now: http://www.howmuchworsecoulditget.com
http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.bankruptingamerica.org
http://www.conventionofstates.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w