Showing posts with label mortgage. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mortgage. Show all posts

Monday, June 24, 2024

June, 2024, Part 2, By The Numbers: Horrible Housing Numbers, Horrible City Government Numbers, and Horrible Fentanyl Numbers

On a periodic basis we do some posts that fall under the theme of “by the numbers.” Rather than trust what the American politician tells us about reality, we like to examine the real numbers and the real reality in the world to understand what is actually going on. Relying on politicians, and their cohorts in the media, to tell us what is reality is always a sucker bet. They have their own agendas and goals, usually centering around their needs and self-enrichment. So we need to look at the reality of the numbers to determine what is really going on.


Previous analyses of “by the numbers” can be accessed by entering the phrase in the search box above. We look at the numbers to truly find out how good, not likely, or bad, most likely, the American political class is doing in managing our tax dollars, protecting our freedoms, and resolving major issues that affect all of us.


1)The housing industry has been a mess since Biden became President. His failed economic policies have caused mortgage rates to skyrocket, pricing many people out of  the market. The latest housing results verify these failed economic policies:


  • Sales of previously owned  homes fell in May for the 3rd straight month.

  • Sales fell in May by 0.7% from the previous month.

  • Sales are down 2.8% from May, 2023.

  • And yet, home prices continue to climb from the same time last year, up 5.8% from last year, an all time high median cost of $419,300.

  • The median  price is up 51% in the past five years.

  • Current average mortgage rates are about 7%, almost three times higher than  when Biden was installed as President.

  • There were 1.3 million unsold homes last month, up 6.7% from April and up a whopping 18.5% from a year ago.


What a mess: home sales are down, mortgage rates are up, home prices are up, home inventories are up, the numbers do not lie. Seems Biden could not have screwed things any worse in this part of the economy if he tried.


2)And the housing numbers in California are even worse:


  • Traditionally, a family earning the median income usually were able to  afford a median priced house by putting down 20% of the purchase price, a tried and true adage for many, many decades.

  • But now, under Biden’s economic policy, that number is probably closer to 35% than the long running 20% rule of thumb, i.e. under Biden’s economic policies, housing prices are going up quicker than household income, meaning a larger down payment is needed to reduce the  monthly mortgage payments.

  • Unless you live in Los Angeles where, according to analysis by the Zillow real estate website, a median income family in that city would have to put down a whopping 81.1% down payment to fund an affordable median priced home there.

  • The  median price of an  LA home is currently around $962,000 according to Zillow.

  • Thus, a median income family in that city in order to afford this median priced, $962,000 home would have to put down a down payment of $780,000.

  • While LA has the highest down payment scenario, other areas of California are also very bad housing price wise since  buyers would need 61.4% or a $358,900 down payment to purchase an average priced house in Riverside and 75.5% or $723,500 down payment in San Diego.

  • In fact, according to Zillow, the old 20% down payment rule now only applies to 10 out of the top 50 housing markets.


Biden and the Washington nitwits are making the classic American dream  of owning a home more and more impossible.


3)We have a continuing discussion that wonders if, or more likely when, a major city or even a whole state will go bankrupt in the near future, given the fiscal mismanagement of city and state politicians. Our top candidates to go bankrupt city-wise include:


  1. New York City

  2. Chicago

  3. Los Angeles

  4. San Francisco

  5. Portland


Our top state governments likely to go bankrupt include:


  1. New York

  2. California

  3. Illinois

  4. New Jersey


And apparently these bankrupt candidates are still the most likely to go belly up fiscally, given a recent analysis by the WalletHub website:


  • WalletHub compared the operating efficiency of 148 of the largest U.S. cities to try and measure what are the best and worst managed city governments.

  • They concluded that, “The best-run cities in America use their budgets most 

effectively to provide high-quality financial security, education, health, safety and transportation to their residents. Many of the top cities also have a very low amount of outstanding government debt per capita, which can prevent financial troubles in the future.”

  • And the cities we feel are likely to go bankrupt pretty soon did not disappoint: San Francisco was rate the most inefficient city (148th out of 148), New York was rated the fourth most inefficient city (145th out of 148), Los Angeles was rated the 9th worth (139th out of 148), and Chicago was rated the 11th most inefficient (137th out of 148).

  • The analysis also looked at the long term city debt by city per person living in each city and again, our bankruptcy candidates did not disappoint: San Francisco had the highest long term debt out of the 148 cities studied, New York had the 4th highest debt load, and Chicago had the 5th highest debt load.

  • The debt load per person of San Francisco was a whopping 52 times greater than the debt load per person than the most efficiently run city.


Thus, our city candidates most likely to go bankrupt are unchanged, Wallethub’s numbers do not lie.


4)Not only has Biden’s economic  policies been a disaster,  his illegal  immigration policies have  also been a  major disaster along several different dimensions.  Consider the illegal drug dimension:


  • According to Newsweek, Texas law enforcement authorities have seized an unbelievable 504 MILLION lethal  doses of fentanyl in the past three years, about the same  amount of  time that Biden has been President.

  • The 504 million doses is enough to kill every citizen of the United States and Mexico.

  • These law enforcement officers have also intercepted 514,500 illegal immigrants and executed 44,300 criminal arrests which involved 38,700 felony charges.

  • According to Texas governor, Greg Abbott: "More than five Texans die every day from deadly Fentanyl, and Texas continues to ramp up our efforts to combat the growing Fentanyl crisis plaguing our state and the nation."

People die from bad political decisions and Biden has certainly made any number of fatal decisions.

Enough numbers for today: bad housing numbers, bad government mismanagement numbers, and bad illegal immigration numbers, destroying the American dream, destroying government functions, and destroying American lives.

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If you agree that we need to deseat every member of Congress for their lack of success and accomplishment, then please consider going to the following petition link to help the cause:


https://www.change.org/p/deseat-congress-reset-freedom



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Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:


Monday, April 8, 2024

April, 2024, By The Numbers: Taxing The Rich Is Still Stupid, High Taxes Mean Higher Unemployment, and Biden Kills The American Dream of Home Ownership

 On a periodic basis we do some posts that fall under the theme of “by the numbers.” Rather than trust what the American politician tells us about reality, we like to examine the real numbers and the real reality in the world to understand what is actually going on. Relying on politicians, and their cohorts in the media, to tell us what is reality is always a sucker bet. They have their own agendas and goals, usually centering around their needs and self-enrichment. So we need to look at the reality of the numbers to determine what is really going on.


Previous analyses of “by the numbers” can be accessed by entering the phrase in the search box above. This is the third and final post this month where we look at the numbers to truly find out how good, not likely, or bad, most likely, the American political class is doing in managing our tax dollars, protecting our freedoms, and resolving major issues that affect all of us. 


1)While  our country may be able to survive bad Presidents, bad Congress people, and a biased and corrupted free press, one thing that it may not survive is the mountains of debt that American politicians have piled up at all levels of government. At some point, the $34,000,000,000,000 worth of Federal government  national debt, a number that grows every second of every day, will crash our economy and our freedoms.


But those in Washington only occasionally pay attention to this ticking time bomb number and never do anything about it. Consider a set of numbers that shows how out of control the debt burden is and how stupid ideas like “taxing the rich” are just that, stupid ideas:


  • According to the latest analysis by Forbes, the combined wealth of every billionaire in the world is about $14.2 trillion.

  • To show you how out of control our national debt is, if we could somehow liquidate every asset of every billionaire in the world and magically apply the proceeds to our national debt, we would only be able to pay off about 41% of the Federal government’s debt.

  • But they would not give up their wealth freely so let’s say we only took 10% a year as a tax on wealth.

  • Then we would only pay off about 4% of our national debt.

  • But that number includes every billionaire and I doubt that billionaires in China and  England and elsewhere would hand over their billions of dollars in wealth to help pay down our national debt so that 41% number is way too high.

  • About 40% of the world’s billionaires, according to Forbes, live in this country so that 41% number would really be about 16% of the national  debt if all of America’s billionaires had all of their assets confiscated and applied to Washington's debt.

  • And we only took 10% then you are looking at paying down only about 1.6% of the  national debt.

  • In fact the  richest billionaire in the world is not an American, but Frenchman, Bernard Arnault, whose family conglomerate is worth $233 billion, or about .7% of our national debt.

  • Elon Musk is worth about $193 billion so confiscating his entire fortune would pay off less than the .7% that Arnault and his family would pay off.

  • Amazon founder, Jeff Bezos is worth about the same as Musk so taking all of his wealth would also pay off less than 1% of the national debt.


You get the idea: Washington politicians have  piled up so  much debt that even if you confiscated every asset of the billionaires living in the world, or in this country, you would not come close to paying off the debt. And thus, the reason why taxing the rich continues to be a stupid saying and strategy. 


The reality is that Americans are not taxed too lightly: politicians simply spend and waste too much.


2)Speaking of high taxes, it has always been our position that the higher the tax burden any government places on their citizens, the worse off the economy is of that government entity. Politicians and government bureaucrats never spend wealth more efficiently or more effectively than private citizens and companies.


Consider more proof our theory:


  • The latest state level unemployment rates are out.

  • We have often pointed out that some of the highest taxed states include California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey, states that we believe are likely to be the most likely states to declare bankruptcy in the relatively near future.

  • And it turns out that these states have some of the highest state unemployment rates in the country with California (50th ranked worst unemployment rate), New Jersey (48th), Illinois (47th), and New York (43rd) following close behind with unemployment rates at their state level  being 4.4% or higher.

  • These are the same states that continue to lose population year over year as their citizens flee to other areas and states where the tax burden is not so onerous.


Bottom line: have high taxes, have high unemployment, have high taxes, lose citizens.


3)It is a fact that the cost of living has skyrocketed under the Biden Presidency. His economic policies have allowed inflation to run rampant, causing prices to rise on  just about everything we buy for our lives including eggs, gasoline, clothing, etc. And somehow his economic policies have been so bad that the following numbers are just mind blowing that he could screw up an aspect of our economy this badly  in such a short time:


  • When Biden took office in 2021, in six states a family needed over $100,000  a year in income to afford a middle class, median priced home.

  •  Just three years later, Biden’s failed economic policies have driven that number up to 22 states where a family needs an annual of over $100,000 to afford a middle class home.

  • This is an almost four fold increase in just over three years.

  • This analysis by Bankrate starts in January 2020, and takes it to January 2024.

  • And while their analysis time frame covers the last year of the Trump administration, most of the increase is no doubt occurring as a result of the Biden administration.

  • Their analysis estimated that a family needed to earn an annual  income of $110,871 to afford that median priced house today, up a whopping 46% since 2020.

  • When Biden took office in January, 2021, the average interest rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage was 2.5%.

  • As of March, 2024, Bankrate estimates that the average interest for that same type of mortgages was 7.07%, an almost threefold increase.


Biden has proposed some window dressing programs to address this situation but providing a two year, $5,000 tax credit to home buyers and other such token moves will do nothing when the mortgage rate has increased almost threefold under his Presidency.  His proposed tax credit programs show, again, that he and Washington have no idea on how to fix what they broke in three short years.


That will do it for today’s Numbers: Biden broke the home ownership dreams of millions and millions of Americans, have high taxes get high unemployment, and taxing the rich still makes no sense as long as Washington politicians have no  restraint when it comes to overspending their tax revenue stream.


**********************

If you agree that we need to deseat every member of Congress for their lack of success and accomplishment, then please consider going to the following petition link to help the cause:


https://www.change.org/p/deseat-congress-reset-freedom



**********************


Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at: