Wednesday, February 18, 2015

February, 2015, Part 1, The Unfolding Disaster That Is Obama Care: Higher Costs, Lower Enrollments, A Supreme Court Death Blow and More

Every month for the past two years or so we have had to dedicate numerous posts each month to cover the many, many unfolding disasters that have been spawned by the Obama Care legislation. This is easily the worst piece of legislation ever enacted by the Washington political class for so many reasons:
  • First of all, it will never work in reining in the high cost of health care in this country since it never addressed the underlying root causes of our high costs, mistakenly implementing a Rube Goldberg like health insurance solution for what is mostly a public health problem.
  • It will add over a trillion dollars to the national debt even though Obama promised it would not add “a single dime” to the debt.
  • It has stifled economic growth and job creation.
  • It has increased taxes on every American, either directly or indirectly, despite Obama’s promise that it would not.
  • It has forced upwards of seven million Americans to lose access to their preferred health insurance policies.
  • It has caused millions of Americans to lose access to their preferred doctors, hospitals, and current medical treatments.
  • Nationally, it has increased the cost of health care premiums and deductibles as compared to before the legislation was passed.
  • It has opened up millions of Americans to the real threat of identity theft since Obama Care’s data systems security protocols are woefully inadequate.
  • Even those that have obtained health care insurance under Obama Care policies are finding that their choice of doctors and hospitals are extremely narrow and more narrow than before the legislation was passed, resulting in many policy holders not getting access to the premier doctors and hospitals in this country.
  • The legislation has made a shortage of primary care physicians even worse since it is forcing primary care physicians to either retire earlier or move on to other career options.
  • Ten years from now the Congressional Budget Office predicts that tens of millions of Americans will still be without health care insurance coverage, the primary reason for the legislation in the first place.
  • It has burdened the failing Medicaid system with millions of more applicants without fixing the massive problems with the system, causing more and more doctors to discontinue taking Medicaid and in some cases, Obama Care patients, resulting in the cruel irony that “you finally have health insurance but you do not have health care.”
  • It failed to deliver on the Obama promise that the average American family would see a $2,500 annual reduction in their health insurance costs.
  • While the legislation was supposed to reduce the number of emergency room visits, it has actually increased the number of emergency room visits.
  • While it was supposed to make people healthier, the legislation’s resultant high co-pay levels and high deductible levels has forced many Obama Care policy holders to defer medical treatment because of the higher costs.
We could go on but you get the idea. This is a disastrous piece of legislation across multiple parameters. To get more details on each of the above disasters and explore other disasters of the legislation, just enter the phrase, “the unfolding disaster that is Obama Care” in the search box above.

So, let’s take a few days and take a look at the latest Obama Care disasters and fiascoes:

1) The wonderful website, "Bankrupting America,” has done a great job tracking the failures of Obama Care over the years. They recently published their view of the latest five disasters:

- So far, according to the Obama administration, 9.9 million people have signed up for insurance through the Federal and state operated Obama Care exchanges. 7.5 million were on the Federal exchange and 2.4 were on the state exchanges. This is considerably short of the original second year estimate of over 13 million, the estimate that was used to sell in the program, with the shortage being about a somewhat embarrassing 24%. That original estimate was reduced to 9.1 million in late 2014.

And although 9.9 million have signed up, that does not mean those people will follow through, actually pay for a real policy and thus, activate a real policy. If history is any indication, about 20% of the 9.9 million will not pay and activate, reducing the 9.9 million to about 8.0 million, missing even the administration’s revised estimate for second year signups, 9.1 million, by over one million.

- According to The New York Times, “The Affordable Care Act has ushered in an era of complex new health insurance products featuring legions of out-of-pocket coinsurance fees, high deductibles and narrow provider networks. Though commercial insurers had already begun to shift toward such policies, the health care law gave them added legitimacy and has vastly accelerated the trend, experts say. The theory behind the policies is that patients should bear more financial risk so they will be more conscious and cautious about health care spending. But some experts say the new policies have also left many Americans scrambling to track expenses from a multitude of sources — such as separate deductibles for network and non-network care, or payments for drugs on an insurer’s ever-changing list of drugs that require high co-pays or are not covered at all.”

In other words, higher premiums, higher deductibles, more narrow networks, and tremendously more hassle, the exact opposite of what was promised.

- According to The Shreveport Times, “It’s a deep and common concern across the United States, where employer plans cover 60 percent of working-age Americans, or about 150 million people. Coverage long considered the gold standard of health insurance now often requires workers to pay so much out-of-pocket that many feel they must skip doctor visits, put off medical procedures, avoid filling prescriptions and ration pills — much as the uninsured have done. In recent Commonwealth Fund survey found that four in 10 working-age adults skipped some kind of care because of the cost, and other surveys have found much the same. The portion of workers with annual deductibles — what consumers must pay before insurance kicks in — rose from 55 percent eight years ago to 80 percent today, according to research by the Kaiser Family Foundation. And a Mercer study showed that 2014 saw the largest one-year increase in enrollment in ‘high-deductible plans’ — from 18 percent to 23 percent of all covered employees.”

Higher deductibles and people forgoing care because of the higher costs, the exact opposite of what was promised from Obama relative to Obama Care.

- According to the San Jose Mercury News: “One year on the explosive, health law-induced growth of Medi-Cal, it appears one of the most alarming predictions of critics is coming true: The supply of doctors hasn’t kept up with demand. One recent study suggests the number of primary care doctors in California per Medi-Cal patient is woefully below federal guidelines. ‘If you’re pregnant, you get help,’ Moreno said. ‘But if you’re 49 and not pregnant, you have to wait for everything.’ In fact, seven months after Moreno’s surgery, her original surgeon’s office called just to say they still couldn’t fit her in. At least 1.2 million Californians have signed up for a private insurance plan since enrollment began in October 2013 under the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare. But it’s Medi-Cal that has witnessed the largest growth — 2.7 million since the controversial law opened the program up to many more recipients in January 2014. By mid-2016, more than 12.2 million people — nearly a third of all Californians — will be on Medi-Cal, state health officials say.”

This is what happens when you do not address the underlying causes of a problem, you get more problems. As we have said many times in these posts and the San Jose Mercury News is confirming, the good news is that you now have health insurance, the bad news is that you cannot get health care or a access to a doctor

- According to CNBC, “A number of Staples store managers are now threatening to discipline part-time workers—”up to and including termination”—if they clock in for more than 25 hours on the job per week, a new report reveals. Those draconian threats at the office-supply store giant coincide with the start in January of Obamacare regulations that require large employers to offer affordable health insurance coverage to employees who work 30 hours or more per week, or pay a fine of up to $3,000 per worker. Staples denies the new threats that could send workers dusting off their resumes have any connection with the Affordable Care Act, employees who spoke with BuzzFeed News suggested there was a clear link. ‘Before January, it was a smack on the wrist if anyone went over 25 hours—they got an email scolding them saying, ‘You went over 25, try not to do that,’ a Staples employee told BuzzFeed News, which first reported the threats of termination. ‘But now it’s become really serious…they’ve threatened to write up managers and every person that goes over 25 hours.’”

As predicted many times, the 30 hour work week minimum, arbitrarily imposed by Obama Care, a stupid definition from day one as far as defining full time work, is resulting in full time employees being turned into part time workers, both at Staples and thousands of other companies across the country. Thus, these people still do not have health care coverage and now have less hours and less income to pay for health care insurance on their own. Stupid.

None of these realities are new, they have been predicted for the past several years by people way smarter than me. And our President refuses to acknowledge that maybe mistakes were made and need to be corrected in order to preserve his vanity and ego despite the suffering of millions of Americans across the country.

2) Let’s follow up on two key points made above:
  • First, let’s assume that the 9.9 million estimate is a gross estimate and that eventually the real number of people that actually pay for Obama Care policies is around 8.0 million based on past purchasing behavior. If independent sources are correct in their estimates, that between 6 and 7 million people lost insurance coverage because of Obama Care, the net result of this massive and massively expensive piece of legislation relative to the incremental people that now have health care insurance is only between one million and two million. This is a pathetic result of such a hyped and expensive government effort. 
  • Second, if we are to believe the Obama administration and their estimates from above, about 76% of those who signed up for an Obama Care policy did so through the Federal exchange. If the Supreme Court rules this June that those policy holders are NOT entitled to a Federal subsidy, as clearly stated and legislated in the law’s wording, then millions and millions of people will lose access to subsidies. This loss will probably lead millions of them to drop their expensive Obama Care policies and we will be right back where we started five years ago relative to reining in the high cost of healthcare. The only difference will be is that we as a nation would have spent untold billions of dollars for nothing and health care costs will continue to grow unabated, all due to the incompetence of the Obama administration and the Washington political class.
3) As tax season gets serious, it is worthwhile to revisit a 2013 University of California, Berkeley study on what could happen the year after Obama Care hits from a tax perspective:
  • The study predicted that a family of four could be hit with an incremental tax bill because of Obama Care from a few hundred dollars up to a whopping $11,200.
  • This is due to the so-called “clawback”provision of the legislation that requires Americans to pay back via their tax returns any Obama Care subsidies they received beyond that they were due.
  • The study estimated that four in ten low income families will be faced with this clawback charge on April 15.
  • Authors of the Berkeley study, actually written by supporters of the health-care law, warned the repayment feature could kill future support for Obama Care: “Repayment requirements could lead to public dissatisfaction with the exchanges. And if there is much media attention to the need for repayments, some people could be dissuaded from participating in the exchanges,” they cautioned. [W]orkers who receive income that’s 100 percent to 400 percent of the federal poverty line could face difficult repayments ranging from $600 to $2,500. A repayment requirement of $2,500 could be a financial shock to a family of two earning $50,000 a year.” 
When your supporters are worried about the negative ramifications of the law, such as the Berkeley researchers were supposed were, then you know that the legislation is on shaky ground.

That will do it for today, new news but nothing we did not already know about this law:
  • It is not reducing healthcare costs.
  • It is making a doctor shortage worse.
  • It is causing people to not get the healthcare they may need, either because of high deductibles or a shortage of doctors.
  • Millions of people are about to get slammed on their taxes because of Obama Care.
  • The number of people signing up for Obama Care is below both the original projection and the more recent downward prediction.
More disasters tomorrow, with a detailed look at how low the INCREMENTAL impact of the law has really been.

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