As we have waded through the whole issue of man made global warming, or its new rebranded title of climate change, we found that Al Gore and people like him were guilty of a number of things:
- Ignoring science and realities that did not support their opinions and positions.
- Rather than have an adult conversation about climate, these types of advocates like Gore sank to the level of insulting those who dared look at ALL science by calling them a variety of names including racists, homophobes, terrorists, flat earth believers, and other slanderous names.
- Continuing to insist that politicians step up their intrusions into our lives with higher taxes, more regulations, and more control on our freedoms and standards of living based on a shaky theory at best.
Thus, let’s see the latest facts and science that prove you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, regardless of what Al Gore proclaims.
Today we are going to focus on some environmental forecasts from long ago that were totally wrong, much like all of the major and minor global warming and climate change forecasts of more recent times have also been disastrously wrong.
These failed forecasts from long ago come from the most recent issue of Reason magazine and an article written by Ronald Bailey. He talks about the first Earth Day event that was fifty years ago and the environmental disaster forecasts that were associated with that first Earth Day.
The lesson to be learned is that blindly accepting any long term forecasts, even if done by so-called experts, should always be taken with a grain of salt. Many of these experts have books to sell, movies to promote, or egos to be stroked so saying something non controversial doesn't sell books, promote movies or stroke an ego.
Keep in mind that at this point in time fifty years ago, many, many people were just as agitated, concerned, frightened and playing Chicken Little as the latter global warming advocates are. And those advocates fifty years were as wrong as possible by abiding by and believing the forecasts of doom. Let’s see what forecasts went so wrong from five decades ago:
1) Some “experts” warned that cutting the world’s population in half and stopping all economic growth might still not be enough to avoid imminent and worldwide ecological disaster. Since this forecast, the world's population has about doubled without worldwide ecological disaster.
2) Paul Ehrlich, one of the more renowned and failed forecasters of the time predicted that there would be devastating famines around the world that would kill millions of people in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In a 1970 article he predicted that 100 to 200 million people would be dying every year within the next ten years. While there have been periodic famines since then, these mostly localized famines have come nowhere close to killing hundreds of millions of people every year as he predicted.
3) Ehrlich predicted that by the end of 1973, there would be smog crises in Los Angeles and New York that would kill 200,000 Americans. Did not happen.
4) Ehrlich also forecasted that, “Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born” and that by 1975, “some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions.” Did not happen.
5) Other leading “experts” of the time were not as pessimistic as Ehrlich, predicted that the great food shortages and famines would not occur until the 1980s. Did not happen.
6) Harrison Brown, writing for the well regarded National Academy Of Sciences, published an article for Scientific American in September, 1970 that predicted the world would run out of copper in early in the year 2000, which was an optimistic forecast for copper since he predicted we would run out of lead, zinc, tin, gold, silver before the year 1990. Did not happen.
7) In the February 2, 1070 issue of Time magazine, ecologist Kenneth Watt confidently stated that, “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate that there won’t be any more crude oil.” Did not happen.
8) In the January, 1970 issue of Life magazine, we were warned that, “In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution.” Did not happen.
So all these forecasts did not happen, whew! Otherwise we would all be sucking in poisonous air, groveling for food, and be out of most, if not all, valuable minerals.
So what did happen and how wrong were these “expert” forecasts:
1) While the world’s population did double over the past fifty years, it did not rise as fast as the experts predicted and the fertility rate of humankind went from 4.8 children per woman in 1970 to 2.4 today. And that fertility rate continues to drop which will eventually cause the world’s population to level out naturally and without great famines.
2) Although the world’s population doubled, the world’s food production levels tripled and the average per capita calorie intake increased 25% from 2,400 calories a day to about 3,000 calories a day.
3) U.S. corn yields went from 60 bushels per acre in 1970 to 170 bushels per acre today.
4) We did not run out of crude oil with the U.S. Energy Information Administration now estimating there are about 3.4 trillion barrels of crude oil that could still be recovered, quite a difference from having no crude oil that Watt predicted.
5) Oh, by the way we did not run out of copper. In 1974 the U.S. Geological Survey predicted that there was 417 million tons of copper left in the world that Harrison Brown predicted would be gone by the year 2000. But in the year 2019, the U.S.Geological Survey now estimates there are 803 tons of copper in the world, 803 tons more than Brown predicted would be available. Estimates of zinc reserves went from 236 million in 1974 to 230 million tons in 2019, tin reserves went from 10 million to 4.7 million tons, gold reserves went from 41,000 tons to 54,000 tons and silver reserves went from 187,000 tons to 560,000 tons. Remember, all of these minerals were predicted to be used up by the 1990s.
6) Although the U.S. economy grew 275% from 1970 to 2018, the EPA estimates that the total emissions from six air pollutants dropped by 74%.
7) In 1972, the EPA reported that 30% of the tested waters in the country did not meet the “fishable standard” (i.e. provided fish that were safe to eat) while in 2014, despite population growth and economic growth, that 30% estimate fell by 50% to 15%.
You get the idea. Long term forecasting is not easy. And it is made more unreliable when those making the forecasts are selling books, making movies, stroking their ego or looking for grants and research money to continue their work. The squeaky wheel gets the grease so to speak and for a researcher or expert to stay everything is good and safe and don’t panic, well that does not get the same attention of world ending disaster forecasts.
This doesn't mean we should always reject the opinions of experts, especially when talking about shorter term, more immediate time frames and schedules. We just have to be sure to understand the underlying reasons for making such bombastic predictions, checking those predictions with other experts, and making sure to take them with a grain of salt.
Because while these predictions of disaster and the end of the world may seem real and accurate, they rarely are. And thirty years of failed global warming and climate change predictions and forecasts of doom and gloom prove this point.
It is also available online at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Please pass our message of freedom onward. Let your friends and family know about our websites and blogs, ask your library to carry the book, and respect freedom for both yourselves and others everyday.
Please visit the following sites for freedom:
http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.bankruptingamerica.org
http://www.conventionofstates.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w
Because while these predictions of disaster and the end of the world may seem real and accurate, they rarely are. And thirty years of failed global warming and climate change predictions and forecasts of doom and gloom prove this point.
Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:
It is also available online at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Please pass our message of freedom onward. Let your friends and family know about our websites and blogs, ask your library to carry the book, and respect freedom for both yourselves and others everyday.
Please visit the following sites for freedom:
http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.bankruptingamerica.org
http://www.conventionofstates.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w
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