Previous analyses of “by the numbers” can be accessed by entering the phrase in the search box above. This is the third and final post this month where we look at the numbers to truly find out how good, not likely, or bad, most likely, the American political class is doing in managing our tax dollars, protecting our freedoms, and resolving major issues that affect all of us.
1) In a recent post we discussed the very likelihood/reality that many U.S. cities and states are likely to go bankrupt in the coming years, given the sad state of their financial numbers. Our number analysis predicted that Chicago, New York City, San Francisco, and a few other cities were the most likely to go bankrupt first. We also predicted that Illinois, New York state, New Jersey, and California were the states mostly likely to go bankrupt first. Those analysis and numbers can be reviewed at:
Given a recent article, we stand by our number analysis:
- A lot of people and businesses are moving out of New York state for any number of reasons but especially because of the ever rising tax burden.
- The article pointed out that New York state government is facing about a $15 billion budget deficit in the current fiscal year.
- Given that there are about 19.5 million residents in the state, to close that budget deficit every man, woman and child would have to be assessed a tax burden of about $770 each to close the gap.
- Thus, a family of four would have to cough up about $3,100 a year to close the annual gap.
- This is $3,100 that families could not spend on building up the state economy, creating jobs, making better lives for themselves and their families, etc.
2) We have done a lot of sad posts over the years about the terrible and ongoing violence that constantly infests the city of Chicago. And through those years, no city or county or state politician has found a way to stem the tide of murders, violent crime and death that Chicago residents are subject to every day.
The latest numbers from the city are not good:
- 29 Chicago residents were shot over a recent weekend.
- Of those 29, 7 died from their gunshot wounds.
- A five year old was seriously wounded in the violence.
- This is not a good start to the new year since last year there were 769 murders in the city, the first time the murder total had exceeded 700 in over twenty years.
- Last year, 4,033 Chicago residents in total got shot, up about 40% from the year before.
- Manhattan Institute senior fellow, Heather MacDonald, writing for the Wall Street Journal recently, did not have any kind words for the political leadership and it's ineptness regarding the carnage: “Mainstream media and many politicians claim the pandemic caused this bloodbath, but the chronology doesn’t support that assertion. And now the criminal-justice policies supported by President Biden promise to exacerbate the current crime wave, while ignoring its actual causes.”
3) That Wall Street Journal article by Ms. MacDonald had some other distressing violence numbers that were not restricted to Chicago:
- Murders were up a whopping 57% in a sample of 57 metro U.S. cities in 2020.
- At least 2,000 more Americans were murdered in these cities than the previous year with most of the increase being composed of African-American citizens.
- Murders were up an amazing 95% in Milwaukee, 78% in Louisville, 74% in Seattle, 72% in Minneapolis, 62% in New Orleans,and 58% in Atlanta as reported by crime analyst, Jeff Asher.
- 55 kids were killed by violence in Chicago, 17 kids were killed in St. Louis, 11 were killed in Philadelphia.
- 40 kids were shot in total in Los Angeles.
- 18 people in Chicago were shot in ONE DAY on May 31 last year, the most violent day in over 60 years in the city.
4) Oh so many times we have pointed out how politicians in general have no common sense when it comes to economic theory, principles, and practice. It is no secret that the covid pandemic has wreaked havoc on the restaurant industry. Restaurants were forced to shut down early in the crisis to try and stem the rising number of covid cases. We have cited data that shows how about 50% of the pre-covid restaurants have not reopened yet and that about 20% of them may never reopen.
But according to the Wall Street Journal’s analysis of the numbers that exist today and which are likely to happen because of Biden’s idiotic economic policies when it comes to restaurants, things are likely to get worse the more government interferes in the industry:
- There are 2.5 million fewer restaurant jobs today than before the pandemic.
- Biden wants to fix that by getting $15 billion in funding to help the industry.
- Which on the surface sounds good until you find out he also wants to mandate a $15 minimum wage which would hit many, many restaurant workers in not a good way.
- We already know that when the minimum wage was raised anywhere in the country, jobs were slashed, hours were cut, and restaurant workers ended up earning less money than before the mandate minimum wage increase as restaurant owners slashed staff, cut hours, automated operations, or went out of business because of the extra business cost of wages.
- Biden’s minimum age idea would double the current minimum wage and increase the current restaurant server minimum wage by over 600%, taking it from $2.13 an hour to $15 an hour.
- This is a cost increase that restaurant owners would have to pay out.
- The article goes through a hypothetical case of a West Virginia restaurant with five servers: these servers would see their minimum wage go from $2.13 an hour to $15 an hour, an annual increase of $19,313 per server, making the overall wage line of the restaurant go up about $100,000 which would be offset by about a $15,000 covid stimulus payment.
- Thus, the restaurant owner would see his operating expenses as a result of this single act go up by about $85,000, hardly a cause for joy.
- This in turn would likely lead to a staff reduction as that restaurant owner seeks to reduce his increased costs, an action that studies from Miami University and Trinity University estimate would ripple through the economy at a cost of about 1,000,000 lost restaurant jobs.
- 700,000 of these lost jobs would be waiters and waitresses who almost all make over $15 an hour when you consider the $2.13 minimum wage AND tips that come with the job.
- Thus, people would lose jobs and those that keep their jobs would likely earn less.
- History shows that this will happen since when NYC and San Francisco raised the minimum wage to $15 an hour, the city saw year over year declines in restaurant employment in both 2018 and 2019, the first time that happened in many years.
- The University of Washington estimates that when Seattle did the same thing, there was a 13% increase in businesses going out of business or leaving town.
The article goes on to cite decades of research done by the Congressional Budget Office that proves all those things happen but Biden is too ignorant to even try to understand this basic economic premise: raising the cost of doing business puts additional stress on running that business and bad things usually happen.
For other examples of how raising the minimum wage causes more agony for workers than ecstasy:
5) One final set of numbers. Democrats and liberals continue to demonize Trump and his Presidency and how evil they say he was. But numbers from a recent Rasmussen poll, one of the few unbiased polling organizations that still exist, found that Trump’s approval tasting after the storming of the Capitol building actually went up over 50% (51%) immediately after the event. It then came down slightly to about 48%, his final number as President. [Note: in fact, his approval rating was actually trending upwards at the end.
But what liberals and Democrats still do not understand is that there is a strong undercurrent of disgust with the current set of politicians running this country. And that disgust is being shown by strong approval numbers for Trump's last days in office.
So the numbers show us that Trump got a last laugh, Biden has no economic sense, New York mismanagement has big budget dangers, and politicians across the country cannot fulfill a very basic responsibility of government, protecting citizens’ lives. The numbers do not lie.
Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:
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1 comment:
Great post, much appreciate the time you took to write this.
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