Sunday, March 1, 2015

February, 2015, Part 3, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science: Skeptics are Smarter Than Believers, The Science Is NOT Settled and More

On a periodic basis we take a look at the topic of global warming under the theme of “ I am a global warming doubter and a believer in science.” We started this series because we wanted to look at ALL of the available science, ALL of the available data and ALL of the scientific opinions on the topic to reach a science and reality based conclusion on what was likely really going on.

Which is not what people like Al Gore do. Gore and other zealots call those that dare to disagree with him any number of slurs including racists, homophobes, etc. Rather than engage in a science-based, adult conversation, his types would rather browbeat global warming doubters into submission by selectively looking at only a small amount of science and facts that support their premise.
Now, the fact that global warming stopped almost twenty years ago, forecasts and predictions of global warming alarmists have never come true or been close to accurate accurate, and the Gore-types have had to rebrand “global warming” to “climate change” are all strong indications that these folks have been wrong all along.

Additionally, we have shown dozens of times in dozens of posts that there may actually be more science that rebuts global warming and climate change than support it. To review these past posts and our proof that one can be a believer in science and a global warming doubter, enter the phrase,”I am a global warming doubter” or “I am a believer in science” in the search box above. 

Then take a look at the latest information and realities that continue to show that man made global warming and climate change may not be real at all.

1) People like Al Gore like to belittle and rant at people like myself who have serious doubts about man made global warming and climate change even after we look at ALL of the available data, studies, and realities. This is what I call the bullying approach to arguments and debate, if you cannot beat them with reason and logic than belittle them with bullying.

But it seems like those that are global warming doubters might actually have more of a sense and knowledge of science than Gore is ever willing to admit to.

Recent research by Yale Professor Dan Kahanto, published in Advances in Political Psychology, found that global warming skeptics actually score slightly better in a quiz about climate science than believers. 2,000 people were asked nine science questions resulting in the following results:
  • On average, global warming skeptics got about 4.5 questions correct, whereas man made global warming believers got about 4 questions right.
  • One question asked if scientists believe that warming would “increase the risk of skin cancer.” Skeptics were more likely than believers to know that is false.
  • Skeptics were also more likely to correctly know that if the North Pole icecap melted, global sea levels would not rise. One can test this with a glass of water and an ice cube – the water level will not change after the ice melts. Antarctic ice melting, however, would increase sea levels because much of it rests on land. But as an aside, Antarctic ice should not be a near term problem. Research published in January 2015 found that the South Pole's sea ice extent has been growing since 1979. Additionally, other research says Antarctic temperatures have not increased during the same period.
  • Believers are more likely to correctly answer questions like: “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures to rise?” The correct answer is carbon dioxide. As another aside however, 12,750 years ago, the Earth's average temperature was about the same as it is today but, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere at the time was higher than current  levels. They are also ignoring the fact that, during some of the Earth's ice ages, the CO2 levels were 5-10X higher than today.
  • A similar type of study published in 2012 in the journal Nature Climate Change found that global warming skeptics know just as much about science. 
As a nice summary to the above findings, consider the words of Roy Spencer, a scientist and climatologist at the University Of Alabama in Huntsville: “It's easy to believe in the religion of global warming. It takes critical thinking skills to question it.” 

A religion vs. a science, what side do the skeptics fall on? According to research global warming doubters might actually be bigger science advocates and smarter than global warming believers.

2) I love it when politicians talk about something they really do not know anything about or do not do the research, or put forth an outright lie. Many of these factors were involved when both Secretary of State John Kerry and President Obama at separate times called global warming skeptics members of the flat earth society, i.e. skeptics are so stupid that they still think that the earth is flat.

Again, when you do not have facts , reality, and science on your side, hurl insults to cover up your deficiencies. However, in this case, the insults backfired on both of these guys. Salon tracked down the president of the "Flat Earth Society," yes, it really does exist, to find out the group’s official position on global warming and climate change. 

And surprise, surprise, the group's president, Daniel Shenton is a global warming believer: “I accept that climate change is a process which has been ongoing since beginning of detectable history, but there seems to be a definite correlation between the recent increase in world-wide temperatures and man’s entry into the industrial age. If it’s a coincidence, it’s quite a remarkable one. We may have experienced a temperature increase even without our use of fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution, but I doubt it would be as dramatic as what we’re seeing now.”

Two things here. How ironic that Obama and Kerry have more in common with the Flat Earth Society even though they try to besmirch global warming doubters with the labels. Second, Mr. Shenton makes some gross and incorrect assumptions in reaching his conclusions. 

First, he assumes there is a definite correlation between temperatures and the industrial age. But as I know from my training as a statistician, CORRELATION, no matter how strong, does not necessarily mean CAUSATION. Just because two trends are highly correlated does not mean that one caused another. The price of bread has gone up steadily over the past fifty years as has temperatures up until about twenty years ago. Under Mr. Shenton’s definition, the cost of bread must have caused the earth’s temperatures to rise.

Second, even if his correlation assumption is correct, how does he explain the fact that the temperatures stopped rising twenty years ago while the Industrial Age has marched on? Doesn’t that cause the correlation to plummet? Not science, just someone misusing statistics again.

3) The Newsbusters website recently ran an article by Sean Long on a recent Purdue University study. That research study found that only about 50% of climate scientists believe mankind is to blame for climate changes around the world.

Now, you may say, how can that be? Didn’t the New York Times, NBC, and other mainstream media outlets prove that 97% of scientists believe that mankind activities are causing global warming and/or climate change? Didn’t they quote another research paper that derived the 97%? 

Well, yes they did quote a research paper that claimed 97%. But that research has been proven incorrect and intentionally misleading by any number of sources, rendering its validity completely destroyed and irrelevant. This latest research is based on a Purdue University research survey of six thousand farmers and scientists. Linda Prokopy, a professor of Natural resources Social Science at Purdue and found the following results:
  • 90% of the scientists and climatologists in the survey believed the Earth’s climate was changing.
  • However, barely half of them, 50.4%, thought mankind was the primary factor in the changes.
  • Which means almost half of them felt that mankind had no impact on climate change.
  • This is not quite what Al Gore and Barack Obama have been telling us, trying to pass the notion that the “science is settled.” It is not settled when half of the relevant scientists disagree with their positions on the matter.

The results do not change significantly when the study looks only at climatologists.

That will do it for today for global warming doubting. I thought we could wrap up this update series today but we will need two more days to finish it up. What did we learn today:
  1. Global warming skeptics are at least, if not better, in science than global warming believers.
  2. The Flat Earth Society’s position on global warming aligns with the views of Gore and Obama even though they use the flat earth society analogy to belittle anyone who dares to disagree with them.
  3. The science is not settled, at least according to a large research project recently completed by Purdue University.

More doubting and real science tomorrow.

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