Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Fighting Islamic Terrorism In the Wake Of Orlando, Part 3 - The Diplomatic, Humanitarian Solution

A few days ago we took some time to discuss the terrorist attack at a nightclub in Orlando a few weekends ago. We listed out a number of steps that needed to be taken in the short term, and extending into the long term, that would help prevent similar attacks in the future. These steps required extensive effort on behalf of the government and the Washington political class, something that neither has had the will or ability to do in the past. 

Instead, we get people like Obama and other liberals inside and outside of government that, as always, go to the knee jerk reaction of limiting Americans access to guns. As we pointed out yesterday, the 9-11 attackers did not storm the Twin Towers with AR 15 rifles, they used airplanes to carry their terror plans. The Boston Marathon bombers did not jump into a crowd in Boston and start shooting up the place, they used homemade bombs. Other terrorists here and around the world have used simple knives to kill in the name of radical Islamic terror.

We also pointed out that if a person wanted to carry out a terror attack, any new gun control laws passed by Washington would be nothing more than an inconvenience, if anyone wants a gun in this country, the drug cartels or other organized, and unorganized, criminal entity would be more than willing to make a few bucks by providing such weapons and guns. That is why the many suggestions we provided yesterday to attack the root causes of terrorism are far more important and more likely to be effective than window dressing gun control restrictions.

However, there has to be an overarching strategy to eliminate the terror threat from ISIS long term. While our suggestions from a few days ago would go a long way to help protecting us, a long term strategy to settle down the violence and hatred in the Middle East is required at the highest levels of diplomacy. That is where Obama needs to be concentrating as his Presidency winds down, putting together a long term plan, strategy, and way of life that brings all of the diplomatic players together in a grand coalition and effort that finally eliminates the root cause of the ISIS terror reign.

However, since he seems more interested in changing national bathroom policies, hosting Super Bowl teams at the White House, and hiking around a national park out west, two days ago we started the discussion on what the grand plan might look like, why it would work and how each interested party would have to give a little to get a lot, i.e. the end of the ISIS threat. To that end, we laid out the situational analysis on the ground in the Middle East, focusing on Syria, and what assumptions would go into formulating this overarching strategy.

In proposing this solution and plan, we realize that we are not trained diplomats. We have never held elected office. But we do realize that to have a final plan in any facet of life, you have to have at least a preliminary plan that is tweaked, negotiated, adjusted over time, etc. And since Obama, John Kerry, et al do not appear to have the will or have the ability to develop a plan, they are more than free to start with ours, as laid out below.

As we see it, and as we laid it out two days ago, there are nine major players involved in the mess in Syria with ISIS:

  1. ISIS - the most ruthless, heartless, and well financed Islamic terror group ever, currently dominating large parts of Syria and Iraq, composed mostly of Sunni Muslims.
  2. The United States - because we stick our noses into everything and the rise of ISIS was facilitated by the Obama administration.
  3. Syria - or what is left of it, headed up by Assad, a Shiite Muslim.
  4. Russia - an ally of Assad.
  5. Iran - a Shiite dominated country and ally of Assad.
  6. Iraq - a Shiite dominated country and an ally of Assad and Iran.
  7. Turkey - bordering Syria, anti-Assad, and an ISIS sympathizer.
  8. Saudi Arabia - and other Sunni Muslim Gulf states who are at least ISIS sympathizers.
  9. Kurds - Anti-ISIS fighters with the majority of Kurds living in northern Iraq and who want their own country.

Each of these nine players have to be an important piece of the final solution, a solution that gives everyone of them something but gives none of them everything.

The overarching strategy and sequence of events goes as follows:

  • A multi-national coalition of military forces is created with the sole purpose of defeating and dismantling ISIS, similar to what the first Bush presidency put together to free Kuwait from Iraq 25 years ago.
  • Part of this military effort involves creating a safe zone for refugees in northern Iraq and eastern Syria, currently occupied by ISIS.
  • This safe zone would expand as ISIS is pushed back from its current borders.
  • As the safe zone is expanding, the United Nations steps in, with financing from every other country, to provide shelter and food and to start the reconstruction process. 
  • Once ISIS is defeated militarily, a new country is created out of the northern part of Iraq and eastern part of Syria and run by Sunni Muslims.
  • Assad is allowed to stay in power in Syria but with a greatly reduced country that is Shiite dominated.
  • Russia would still have access to the Syrian ports that they crave.
  • Iran, Russia, and Iraq are allowed to build a Shiite pipeline for their oil and natural gas through whatever part of what used to be Syria they want.
  • The Saudis and other Sunni Gulf nations are also allowed to build a Sunni pipeline for their oil and natural gas through whatever part of what used to be Syria they want.
  • A to-be-determined tariff would be placed on any oil and natural gas that flows through either pipeline and be used to help rebuild the cities and infrastructure in both the new Sunni nation and parts of old Iraq that were destroyed by the ISIS fight.
  • As reward for helping to fight ISIS, the Kurds would have their own country carved out of territory in northern Iraq.
  • As all of this is going on, the new Sunni nation would be a United Nations protectorate as it regains its ability to be a functioning government and society.
  • Free passage back to the area would be provided for all refugees that fled the civil war and the ISIS terrorist group.
Okay, who wins and who loses under a diplomatic coup like this:

- ISIS is a big loser since it no longer exists with most, if not all, of its fighters and leaders killed or put on trial for crimes against humanity.

- The United States reengages militarily in the Middle East, historically not a good thing, costing America more money and lives. But its military mission would be focused solely on the defeat of ISIS and the short term protection of this new Sunni nation until a United Nations military force takes over permanently. In return, the U.S. lessens its refugee problem and associated costs, freeing up these costs to boost our homeland security, and reducing the threat of domestic and foreign terrorism on our shores. In addition, it helps destroy the ISIS terrorist organization that it had helped create.

- Assad gets to stay alive and in power but with a greatly reduced nation, territory, and power but the threat of ISIS on his remaining power and territory eliminated.

- Russia still has an ally, Assad in power even if the size of his country is greatly reduced, and still has access to the Syrian ports, but would have to face the reality that the Saudis and other Gulf Sunni nations do get their own pipeline for their oil and natural gas resources.

- Iran gets to keep their Shiite ally, Assad, in power, they get their Shiite pipeline through Syria but their pipeline has to pay a tariff to help finance the reconstruction of the devastated areas in the new Sunni nation and Iraq and they also have to compete with the Sunni pipeline.

- Iraq gets to keep their Shiite ally, Assad in power, they get rid of ISIS which has been terrorizing the country for years, they get a Shiite pipeline through Syria but their pipeline has to pay a tariff to help finance the reconstruction of the devastated areas in the new Sunni nation and Iraq and they also have to compete with the Sunni pipeline.

- Turkey gets to help create a Sunni friendly nation on its borders vs. having Assad’s Syria on its border but has to contend with a new nation on its other border that was created for the hated Kurds. Obviously, something else on the positive side of the ledger would have to be thrown in to get their support.

- The Saudis and other Sunni Gulf nations get to see the power of their arch enemy Assad greatly reduced and get to build their Sunni pipeline through Syria but but their pipeline has to pay a tariff to help finance the reconstruction of the devastated areas in the new Sunni nation and Iraq and they also have to compete with the Shiite pipeline.

- The Kurds get their own country but lose any oil industry subsidies they were receiving by being a part of Iraq, they would have to accept Kurd immigrants from any other country, and would have stringent conditions imposed on them to discourage any Kurd terrorists attacks within Turkey as what has happened in the past.

As you can see, in our proposed solution, every player gets something they want but also gets things they do not want or things that they cannot have. That is the art of negotiation and diplomacy. You get your own pipeline but your enemy/competitor also gets a pipeline. You get to stay in power but in power over a greatly reduced territory. As you can see above, everyone of the players gets something positive but we have highlighted the BUT in all of their arrangements, meaning they did not get everything. But everyone gets the elimination of ISIS which makes the world a much safer place to be.

This solution also provides a wonderful opportunity for the United Nations to prove that it is a viable and positive organization for humanity. I do not think I can remember anytime in my life when the United Nations was so impotent and so unnecessary in the face of a dangerous world. 

If it could become the force that unites the world and starts the rebuilding of societies in war torn Syria and Iraq, providing humanitarian aid, providing safe zones, helping to rebuild whole cities, stationing military forces to help implement the diplomatic solution, it would regain some of its credibility and show it continues to deserve our tax dollars. If it fails, then I really do not see a use for it going forward since I would dare anyone to show me how it justifies its huge budget year in and year out without providing any tangible results.

That’s our proposed plan. You may not like it but at least it’s a plan, which puts us eons ahead of Obama and John Kerry. Our plan can be adjusted, tweaked, implemented in stages and then adjusted some more, it is tangible. Obama and Kerry have nothing that can be started, adjusted, tweaked, or what is tangible. 

But at least we are having public bathroom discussions as a result of the Obama administration. At least the Super Bowl champs, the Denver Broncos, got to visit Obama at the White House. At least the President got to visit our natural parks out west. 

Obama is all about building his narcissistic legacy. What better legacy opportunity than this, to bring peace and harmony to a major cesspool of terror and destruction? Even Jimmy Carter pulled something off like this decades ago when he got Israel and Egypt to play nice together, that effort still lives on today. Succeeding in this effort, with or without our plan, would dwarf this Carter success. 

That is what the President should be working on, not the trivial stuff that gives him photo opportunities at every turn. Give us a plan, Mr. President, any plan is better than no plan.

George S. Patton - "A good solution applied with vigor now is better than a perfect solution applied ten minutes later."

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