Monday, July 30, 2018

July, 2018, Part 1, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In A Science: Forecasts That Went Horribly Wrong and The Massive Failure Of Paris

Every month we have enough material to return to a continuing theme in this blog, namely that “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.” This became of interest because of people like Al Gore who fanatically and verbosely claimed that you had to be an idiot to not believe in manmade global warming. It has been my life belief that anyone that is that loud and that obnoxious is hiding something, that rather than argue facts and reality it is better to beat down and insult anyone who disagrees.

As we have dove into the whole issue of manmade global warming, or its new rebranded title of climate change, we found that Al Gore and people like him were guilty of a number of things:
  • Ignoring science and realities that did not support their opinions and positions.
  • Rather than have an adult conversation about climate, these types of advocates like Gore sank to the level of insulting those who dared look at ALL science by calling them a variety of names including racists, homophobes, terrorists, flat earth believers, and other slanderous names.
  • Continuing to insist that politicians step up their intrusions into our lives with higher taxes, more regulations, and more control on our freedoms and standards of living based on a shaky theory at best.
To see the past posts and the multitude of evidence that we have compiled that showed it is perfectly okay to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, enter the phrase "global warming doubter” in the search box above or go through the monthly historical post listed on the right side of this page.

Thus, let’s see the latest facts and science that prove you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, regardless of what Al Gore proclaims.

1) As a trained professional statistician, it comes natural to me to go back in time to see how well a forecast predicted reality. Given how good, or badly, your forecasts performed allows you to improve your forecasting skills and accuracy. According to a June 23, 2018 article by Shawn on the Fix This Nation website, that is exactly what some folks have been doing for the major climate forecasts of the past thirty years:
  • The Wall Street Journal had climatologists Patrick Michaels and Ryan Maue compare climate forecasts from thirty years ago to today’s actual results.
  • James Hansen of NASA back in 1988 started a lot of this climate change/global warming nonsense when he declared he found a “high degree of confidence” in the relationship between human-produced CO2 and the “greenhouse effect and observed warming” of the atmosphere.” 
  • Most of Hansen’s predictions said that the Earth’s temperatures would increase steadily over the next thirty years as humans threw more and more CO2 into the atmosphere. 
  • However, only his Scenario C was close to being true and that forecast said that the Earth’s temps would NOT increase substantially in the coming decades.
  • Forecast models developed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on average forecasted twice as much warming than what actually happened as did other major “expert” forecasts.
  • Hansen also did forecasts that also lamely predicted that the number of hurricanes and tornadoes would increase as a result of CO2 that was going to be produced by mankind.
  • Of course, those forecasts were also epic failures with Michaels and Maue concluding that not only were Hansen’s forecasts wrong the reality was “the opposite may be true.”
  • Michaels and Maue also concluded that, “The list of what didn’t happen is long and tedious.
The forecast failures were “long and tedious,” the predictions never came close to being accurate over the test of time. And yet, many liberals like Al Gore and Obama still insist that man made global warming and climate change is reality. When everything you claimed would happen did not happen when do you let go of the fantasy?

2) We have often discussed the reality that the infamous Paris Climate Agreement was a disaster and that, fortunately, Trump pulled the U.S. out of the agreement. The only people that were going to have to make sacrifices were Americans, that the big and growing polluters (e.g., China, India) and others had no fat in the climate fire. Obama sold the U.S. down the road to satisfy his own ego.

Trump took some serious heat from both inside and outside of the country for correctly pulling us out of the agreement but Nicolas Loris and Bryan Cosby, writing for the Western Journalism website on June 2, 2018, updated everyone on how well, really how badly, other countries were doing relative to their meager commitments within the agreement, one year after Trump’s withdrawal:
  • Despite the claim of climate alarmists that coal is bad for the environment and climate change, worldwide coal usage actually went UP 1% in 2017 despite the effort of the Climate Agreement signees to reduce coal usage.
  • A lot of this coal usage increase was because Asian countries’ increase in coal fired electricity.
  • World wide there are 1,600 coal fired electricity generating plants under construction, plants that will burn enough coal to produce 840,000 megawatts of electricity.
  • If the Paris agreement was any good I doubt that it would allow for the use of 1,600 NEW coal fired power plants.
  • And it is not just China and India increasing their usage of coal, smaller countries like Turkey and Indonesia have also struggled to meet their Paris goals since they need the cheap and quick use of coal to meet their growing economy needs.
  • Pakistan signed onto the Paris agreement but that agreement is quite useless: “Given the future economic growth and associated growth in the energy sector, the peaking of emissions in Pakistan is expected to take place much beyond the year 2030. An exponential increase of (greenhouse gas) emissions for many decades is likely to occur before any decrease in emissions can be expected.”
  • But it is not just Pakistan who is contributing nothing to the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement: “Germany, a world leader on climate action, has failed to cut emissions and has actually seen emissions rise during the past two years. Germany may even have to buy its way out of a binding European Union agreement to lower emissions in the coming years.”
  • Brazil expects its emission to continue rising until at least 2030, Japan will continue increasing its use of coal since nuclear in that country has a bad rep, and Poland and South Korea also plan on using more coal going forward.
But all of this proves how bad the whole agreement process was from the beginning: although many countries are falling short of the commitments they made just a few short years ago there are no ramifications or penalties. Even infamous NASA scientist James Hansen, see above discussion, called the whole process “a fraud” in 2015, claiming that, “There is no action, just promises.”

Commitments already being missed, the widespread and increasing use of coal across the world, and no penalties for failure. Trump got this one right.

Still a good thing to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science. More to follow.

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