November, 2013, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and a Believer In Science, Part 3: Ice Packs Expanding, Temperatures Not Expanding, Climate Models Implding

We have spent the past few days going over scientific reports, studies, and findings that hotly dispute the global warming hysteria of people like Al Gore, or as the rebranded effort is called, “climate change.” We laid out a series of 18 scientific efforts that disprove Al Gore’s reckless accusations that those of us that fail to believe what he believes must be scientific idiots. 

Of course, he goes much beyond that stance of calling those with opposing views as scientific ignoramuses. He has also compared us to racists, homophobes, and a whole lot of other equally disgusting and incorrect slurs. It becomes very difficult to have an adult conversation with people like Gore who would rather get up in your face with insults than to have a mature discussion of science from all angles, not just the angle that proves his points. 

Those 18 points of review have already been discussed numerous times in this blog under the them of “I believe in science and I am a global warming doubter.” These past two days of review were used to set up the next two days of reviews where we will lay out the most recent climate findings from a variety of solid, scientific sources that prove that one can believe in science and scientific methods and still come out as a global warming doubter, Al Gore not withstanding.

1) The Washington Post reported on September 23, 2013 that the Antarctic Ice expanse has hit a 35 year high in coverage. Since records of such expanse measure began 35 years ago in 1978, the ice expanse at the south pole is now larger than it has ever been in the history of the measurement. 

In fact, the expanse is now so large that the article shows how it is now above two standard deviations above the average, indicating that from a statistical point of view it is now significantly beyond what should be expected based on historical measures. In other words, this is not a random event from a statistical forecasting perspective. 

Antarctic sea ice has grown to a record large extent for a second straight year, stumping scientists seeking to understand why this ice is expanding rather than shrinking in a possibly warming world. On the third Saturday in September, the ice expanse reached 19.5 million square kilometers, according to data posted on the National Snow and Ice Data website. That number bested record high levels set earlier this month and in 2012 (of 19.48 million square kilometers). Wow, does not seem Al Gore told the south pole that global warming was supposed to melt that ice expanse.

The article goes on to quote a number of climate experts and their confusion of what is actually going on:

• “The overwhelming evidence is that the Southern Ocean is warming. Why would sea ice be increasing? Although the rate of increase is small, it is a puzzle to scientists,” said Jinlun Zhang, a University of Washington scientist, studying Antarctic ice. 
• “This modeled Antarctic sea ice decrease in the last three decades is at odds with observations, which show a small yet statistically significant increase in sea ice extent,” says the study, led by Colorado State University atmospheric scientist Elizabeth Barnes. 
• “Some point to stratospheric ozone depletion, but a new study published in the Journal of Climate notes that computer models simulate declining – not increasing – Antarctic sea ice in recent decades due to this phenomenon (aka the ozone “hole”).” Quote from the Post article. 
• But some climate scientists cling to the belief that they are still right in the face of an increasing ice expanse: “If the warming continues, at some point the trend will reverse,” according to Jinlun Zhang. In other words, trust us and not your eyes, our models will eventually be right. 

Look, I do not know what the right answer is. Maybe there is global warming, but I am tired of people like Al Gore yelling at me and calling me and others idiots for not seeing his biased viewpoint and for his assertion that ALL climate scientists and ALL the data confirm global warming. 

That is just a false and self serving deception. There is a lot of doubt. And that is where we should start having an adult, intelligent conversation and not a typical Al Gore shouting match.

2) We have previously reported on how official government climate and temperature tracking results have shown that since 1997, the earth’s average temperature has not changed. Now, a new scientific study forecasts we will could have 17 more years of similar stable temperatures and weather:

• Research published in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics was recently completed by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt. 
• Their findings and conclusions are in direct odds with people like Al Gore and other global warming supporters. 
• They concluded that the 17 year pause in global warming is likely to continue into the 2030s. 
• Their findings correctly forecast the recent expansion of the Arctic Sea ice expanse. 
• In addition, their findings suggest that those whose support the global warming theory and organizations such as the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have severely underestimated the role of natural cycles and overestimated the impact of greenhouse gases. 

• This graph (click on graph for a larger view), based on a version published by Dr Ed Hawkins of Reading University, shows that actual earth temperatures are now below the predictions made by almost all the 138 models on which the IPCC relies. 
• The lack of temperature rise means there has been no statistically significant increase in world average surface temperatures since the beginning of 1997, despite the models’ forecast of temps trending upwards dramatically. 
• According to Dr Hawkins, the divergence is now so great that the world’s climate is cooler than what the models collectively predicted with ‘five to 95 percent certainty.’ 
• Curry and Wyatt say they have identified what they call a climatic ‘stadium wave’ – the phenomenon known in Britain as a Mexican wave, in which the crowd at a stadium stand and sit so that a wave seems to circle the audience. 
• They concluded that earth’s climate acts in a similar way, a number of cycles in the temperature of air and oceans, and the level of Arctic ice, take place across the Northern hemisphere over decades, a warming wave followed by a cooling wave and the cycle then repeats itself. 
• Global warming advocates starting measuring temperatures during a climaxing warming phase, leading them and their models to conclude that the warming was trending upwards when, according to this latest theory, it was just naturally cycling upwards, to be followed by a cycling downwards, as measure by the 17 years of steady temperatures. 

Curry and Wyatt say there is evidence of this going back at least 300 years. Again, I do not know if their theory is right. But it makes sense from a scientific perspective which allows me to be a believer in science and a global warming doubter, with scientific theories, findings, and results to back up my view, a view that should not be belittled by Al Gore or anyone else.

3) Enough with Al Gore. Let’s move on to some more science. The absence of global warming was also found in the work done by the Cato Institute. They looked at the forecasts done by 108 different climate forecasting models under the auspices of the United Nations global warming syndicate. Their detailed analysis can be found and digested at the following link:

http://www.cato.org/blog/current-wisdom-observations-now-inconsistent-climate-model-predictions-25-going-35-years?utm_content=buffer748ea&utm_source=buffer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer

Rather than try to explain their very detailed analysis, suffice it to say that:

• In general, just about every single climate forecasting model vastly overestimated the global warming temperatures of reality. 
• The further out in time the models went, the worst they became in predicting how warm the earth would be. 
• The actual temperatures observed often fall below the lowest statistical band of standard deviation, indicating that the models are REALLY off in predicting what will happen. 

So while the Cato research is not pure new science, it is an effective way to check on scientific assumptions: did what the global warming scientists predict years ago, actually come true? And Cato emphatically found that they were not correct in their predictions, casting doubt on their whole theory. There’s that word again, doubt.

That’s enough for today. Three scientific approaches to the same problem, all consist with themselves and totally inconsistent with global warming theorists and global warming models. More love of science tomorrow and more doubt of global warming also tomorrow.

Again, a quick note. I do not know the right answer but through these serious of posts, it is obvious that nobody else really knows either. We need to start with doubters and believers and come to a strategic plan of action that makes sense from a science, economic, and reality perspective, not a shouting match and belittlement perspective. 

Before we are done with this series, we will provide a framework to resolve the global warming issue, whatever it is.

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