November, 2013 I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science Update, Part 4: Where Are We Today?

We have spent the past few days discussing how it is perfectly logical and reasonable to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science. We have shown numerous examples of scientific research, analysis, and findings that show the potential for a high likelihood that global warming, or the rebranded “climate change“ concept, effort is either a hoax, a mistake, or non-existent.

Now, we have made the statement throughout our exploration of those scientific efforts refuting global warming that maybe there actually is global warming or climate change occurring as a result of humanity’s actions. There is so much analysis and research supporting both sides of the equation that if you take a step back, it is difficult to truly believe what is going on. 

We did vehemently and often object to the Al Gores of the world who rant at and insult those of us who are global warming doubters but believers in science. Calling people ignorant, environmental Nazis, homophobes, racists, and a whole slew of other insults does nothing to get folks to come together for an adult conversation on the potential issue. 

These people have slung around the insults without considering facts and realities. First, the vast, vast majority of global warming forecast models over the years have grossly overestimated the likely impact of global warming. Thus, if your models are wrong, then the underlining assumptions supporting those models must be wrong. And if those assumptions are based on the thesis that global warming truly exists, then your thesis is wrong.

Second, the earth’s overall temperature has stopped warming and has been remarkably stable and unchanged over the past 15 years or so. Global warming advocates and models would have not believed this reality 15 years ago. In fact, as we have reported, ice expanses at both poles have started expanding again, hardly compatible with a warming earth.

Third, respected scientists, including many at the top research center in the world, the CERN Institute, have proven via their methods that global warming, if it is occurring, is part of natural cycle and mankind’s activities have nothing to do with. 

But rather than considering ALL aspects of global warming science, all that the name calling from the advocates of global warming has accomplished is to harden each side’s positions and opinions of the other side, leaving no room for discussion and compromise to mutual understanding. And without mutual understanding, no action is taken and the potential for problems gets larger and larger. 

But let the name calling stop today, Today and tomorrow we will set up a process to address both sides and come out for the better regardless of whether global warming is a reality or not. Today, we will look at the energy landscape and the reality of energy and carbon footprints going forward in time. Unless we understand the reality of where we are, we cannot develop a plan of where we want to go.

Tomorrow, we will lay out specific steps, processes, and challenges that need to be overcome on the scientific, research, and political fronts, starting with the reality of where we end up today. If those steps are successfully implemented, we will clean up our air and environment, reduce energy costs, and reduce our carbon footprint independent of whether global warming is fact or fiction. 

We would want to these things even if global warming was never dreamed up. If global warming is indeed a reality, than our plan would be the proper way to attack it.

So, let’s start with the reality of today when it comes to fossil fuels and carbon footprints, things that a global warming advocate hates:

1) The fastest growing economy in the world over the past decade has probably been China’s. It’s economy has grown at some of the highest year over year rates in the history of the world. It has helped create a growing Chinese middle class and upper class who want the latest in technology whether it be in electricity using home products, automobiles, and other energy hungry endeavors.

As a result, China has needed to greatly increase its ability to produce energy for its growing consumer and business demand. And the quickest and easiest way to do that was to start burning a lot more coal and a lot more petroleum products. 

It has started to develop massive coal fields in its western regions to feed the growing demand for electricity in its large eastern cities. It is cutting deals with countries all over the world to get access to local fossil fuel natural resources. It now burns about the 60% of all coal in the world (source: Business Week).

Thus, any global warming plan has to include China’s cooperation. Without it, anything any other nation does, including the United States, will be overwhelmed by the growing carbon footprint of the Chinese economy.

2) I am sure Al Gore and his ilk would love to have every human getting their energy needs fulfilled by clean, renewable energy sources, particularly those new technologies that he has invested in. But according to an article in the November, 2013 issue of Reason magazine, that is not going to happen anytime soon:

• The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its analysis and forecast on what the global energy footprint is likely to look like in the future. 
• Their forecast predicts that by 2041, mankind will be using 56% more energy annually than it does today. 
• A whopping 80% of it will come from burning fossil fuels. Yes, almost three decades from now, oil, coal, etc. will still be the dominate fuel sources for humanity, a global warming advocate’s worst nightmare. 
• The use of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase 32%. 
• The use of natural gas will increase 64%. 
• The use of coal will increase 44%. 
• Total energy use from renewables will increase from 11% to 15%. 
• Energy created carbon dioxide emissions will rise 46%. 

Thus, there is probably no end in sight for the use of high carbon laden fuels. This is the likely reality based on expert opinions.

3) This future reality does not mean we should give up trying to reduce our carbon footprint and cleaning up the air. We have reported in the past few posts how the U.S. has greatly reduced its carbon footprint over the past few years, attaining double digit reductions in carbon emission. A more recent update of this success comes from a September 6, 2013 Business Week article that reported the U.S. has reduced its annual carbon dioxide emissions by 12% in just the past five years.

4) The Week magazine’s November 14, 2013 issue ran an article that showed the horrible levels of urban air pollution in large Chinese cities and the fact that seven out of the top ten most polluted cities in the world are in China. These pollution conditions are obviously harmful and often fatal for the citizens of those cities. How bad is it, according to the article:

• China depends on high carbon footprint coal for 70% of its power needs. 
• Chinese government decrees to reduce pollution call for only a 2% reduction in coal usage. 
• While very few Chinese citizens owned a motorized vehicle twenty years ago, today there are 120 million cars and 120 million other motor vehicles on the road. 
• Air pollution contributed to 1.2 million premature Chinese citizen deaths in 2010. 
• Chinese lung cancer rates are up 465% in the past thirty years. 
• In some cities, Chinese scientists estimate that the average citizen will see their life span reduced by 5.5 years on average. 

Regardless of whether or not global warming exists, people should not have to live like this. Taking action to reduce carbon pollution makes for a healthier humanity and if global warming is a true issue, these actions will also be address global warming by cleaning up the air.

5) But consider the potential positive economic upside for the U.S. from a carbon perspective, from an analysis in the September 6, 2013 issue of The Week magazine, keeping in mind that our domestic economy has stunk for at least the past six years and shows no sign of getting better:

• New technology has allowed the United States to greatly increase the amount of crude oil that can be obtained within our own borders. 
• This technology usage has resulted in high paying new jobs, substantially reducing the unemployment rate in several now oil rich states, e.g. 3% in North Dakota and 5% in Oklahoma. 
• While the U.S. imported upwards of 60% of its oil in 2005, it now only imports 40% of its needs. 
• It is estimated that at the current rate, by 2035, the U.S. might be energy independent of the rest of the world. 
• This would greatly reduce the need for us to butt into the affairs of other countries, militarily and diplomatically, particularly those in the Middle East. 
• The energy technology boom as it relates to natural gas and oil could result in one million new manufacturing jobs in the next ten years. 

Okay, before getting to a solution tomorrow, what do we know about today in the world:

• China’s economy is growing rapidly and will require larger and larger amounts of energy sources, amounts that will require the use of carbon intensive energy sources, including coal, for years to come. 
• China is choking on the pollution that its economic growth and energy usage growth has caused. 
• The U.S. has already substantially reduced its carbon footprint over the past five years without government mandates or bureaucracies. 
• Energy industry experts predict that carbon based energy sources will still constitute the majority of raw material used to generate energy in the next several decades, renewables not withstanding. 
• New energy technology usage in the U.S. is one of the very few industries segments that have shown positive economic and employment growth over the past few years. 

From these five realities, we will propose a simple yet elegant solution to the energy, pollution, and…global warming issue regardless of whether or not global warming is fact or fiction.

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