On a periodic basis we do some posts that fall under the theme of “by the numbers.” Rather than trust what the American political class tells us about reality, we like to examine the real numbers and the real reality in the world to understand what is actually going on. Relying on politicians, and their cohorts in the media, to tell us what is reality is always a sucker bet. They have their own agendas and goals, usually centering around their needs and self-enrichment. So we need to look at the reality of the numbers to determine what is really going on.
Previous analyses of “by the numbers” can be accessed by entering the phrase in the search box above. This is the third and final post this month where we look at the numbers to truly find out how good, not likely, or bad, most likely, the American political class is doing in managing our tax dollars, protecting our freedoms, and resolving major issues that affect all of us.
1)We all too often discussed the reality that residents and businesses are fleeing certain states and moving to other states for a better quality of life. Reasons for leaving their old states behind include:
Very heavy tax burdens.
Very high business regulation burdens.
High crime rates.
Failing schools.
Failing infrastructure.
Things have gotten so bad that have predicted that relatively soon a state government will go bankrupt, given the financial death spiral that some may have already entered:
High taxes, high crime, etc. drive residents and businesses out of a state.
This results in lower tax revenue to the state government which raises taxes on the remaining businesses and residents to make up the shortfall.
This drives even more residents and businesses out of the state, further reducing the tax stream.
The state government now has to raise taxes on the remaining residents and business and start cutting budgets for government services which drives more residents and businesses out of the state and the financial death spiral is up and running.
States that we feel are likely to go bankrupt include California, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois. They already share the profile of a financial death spiral with New York facing the following problematic numbers:
Bloomberg estimates that $2 TRILLION in assets have left New York and California for other states with better tax and business climates.
From 2020 through 2023, 370 major investment companies with $2.7 TRILLION in managed assets have moved their headquarters to a new state with most of the $2.7 TRILLION having left New York.
This represents a whopping 2.5% of total investments in the country.
These assets have been moved to Texas, Florida, and other, business friendly southern states.
For example, two companies, AllianceBernstein (New York) and Allspring Global Investments (California), have helped move $600 billion in managed assets to North Carolina.
In 1990, 33% of all financial industry jobs were located in New York but as of 2023 only 17% of those jobs were in New York, an amazing 50% dropoff.
The numbers are staggering, high powered financial firms and jobs leaving New York for better conditions and quality of life elsewhere. As quoted by one investment executive in a New York Post article: “It’s embarrassing what you have to put up with to do business here (New York). We look like idiots staying here.”
If people look like idiots for doing something, they are unlikely to continue to do that something. I think it is a very good bet that high powered and lucrative jobs will continue to leave New York, heightening the chance of a financial death spiral and the bankruptcy of the state and probably the city of New York.
2)We have talked often about how Biden’s economic policies have been a total disaster for regular, working Americans. The current issue of Reason magazine had a nice summary of how bad his economic policies have been:
Overall inflation, the cost of living, is up 18.9% since 2020. most of which was when Biden was President.
In the past year, inflation is up 3.1%, 50% higher than what is deemed comfortable and bearable according to the Federal Reserve.
Cable, satellite, and streaming service costs are up 16.2% since 2020 and are up 4.2% in the past year.
While medical drugs are up only 6.2% since 2020, they jumped 5% in the past year.
Sugar and sweets are up 25.6% since 2020 and are up 5.4% in the past year,
Meats are up 26.8% since 2020 and are still increasing, up 3.6% in the past year.
The price of a gallon of gas is up about 35% since 2020.
Now, while the time frame covers all of the Biden Presidency and the last year of the Trump Presidency, most of the increased cost of living has occurred as a result of Biden's failed economic policies. For example, while gas prices are up 25.5% since 2020, they actually went down during Trump’s last year in office, going from $2.636 a gallon in January 2020 to $2.338 a gallon in January 2021. This means that gas has increased about 35% since Biden took office.
These numbers are crushing household budgets across the country as the cost of food, gas, sweets, drugs, and other vital life products and services have spiked. The numbers do not lie, Biden’s economy stinks for the vast majority of Americans.
3)In 1990, the Federal government’s national debt was about $4,000,000,000,000. As of February 16, 2023, the national debt was $34,269,060,493,915. Some interesting numbers of of these devastating numbers:
Every man,woman, and child in the country would have to EACH pay over $100,000 to pay off the current national debt, a number that increases every second.
The national debt has grown eight fold in just 33 years as a result of out of control and wasteful government spending.
The Congressional Budget Office calls the current fiscal path “unsustainable,” i.e. unless spending is gotten under control some very bad things are going to happen very soon.
But the amount of debt being incurred by Washington seems to be increasing not decreasing as is so urgently needed since in fiscal year 2023, Washington spend $6.13 TRILLION but only had $4.440 TRILLION in revenue for a one year budget deficit of about $1.69 TRILLION.
In other words, Washington and the Biden administration spent 38% more in costs and expenses than it collected in revenue, hardly a sane, long term fiscal policy.
And the year before was not much better since the deficit was still a whopping $1.37 TRILLION.
Let’s try to put this in more meaningful terms:
Let’s say you made $44,400 (analogous to the Federal tax revenue stream) last year.
But you maxed out your credit cards and lines of credit and spent $61,300 (analogous to the amount the Federal government spent) which put you $16,900 (analogous to the Federal deficit) in debt for the year.
But you already had about $320,000 in debt (analogous to the national debt) coming into the year.
So you made $44,400, you spent $61,300, you incurred debt of $16,900 which added to the $320,000 you already had in debt.
I am pretty sure that some time very soon, banks, credit card companies, stores, etc. are no longer going to lend you money given your dire financial straits and debt levels.
Which means you are going to have to default on all of your obligations, lose your house and car to creditors, have a horrendous credit rating which means no one is ever going to lend you money, and rather than live on $61,900 you are going to have to cut back and live on a $44,400 lifestyle or less if part of your wages are garnished to pay off your debts.
That is where the Federal government is heading, a heading that will result in higher taxes, fewer services, reduced Social Security and Medicare coverage, and rampant inflation as the cost of servicing a $34 trillion debt load gets more and more expensive.
Really bad numbers: heading for bankruptcy at the state government level, heading for bankruptcy at the Federal government levels, and paying more for living in the meantime. Way to go Washington and state capital people, your numbers are pathetic and dangerous.
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If you agree that we need to deseat every member of Congress for their lack of success and accomplishment, then please consider going to the following petition link to help the cause:
https://www.change.org/p/deseat-congress-reset-freedom
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