Wednesday, May 6, 2015

May, 2015, Part 2, By The Numbers: Baltimore

On a semi-regular basis we revisit the theme "by the numbers" just to check in on the state of the country and political class using actual realities and their underlying numbers, not the spin or lies from our politicians. You see, politicians usually have nothing to gain by looking at reality and the numbers since they are more than likely to have screwed up reality and our lives in the first place.

That is why they would rather lie and deceive than tell the truth. But that approach can be destroyed by looking at the hard numbers behind the mess they have created. I once worked for a boss whose favorite saying was: "There is nothing more devastating to an opinion than the right number.” And that is what we try to do with this theme, devastate politicians’ opinions by looking at the right numbers.

So let’s take a look at the numbers that have recently cropped up and again prove that the political class in America continues to be one of the worst set of people to ever hold office, given the state of the country, the many ways they screw up our wealth and government functions, and their inability or non-desire to step up and tell the truth.

1) As most informed people know, there have been riots going on in Baltimore, theoretically because of outrage in the death of a young African-American while in police custody, Freddie Gray. This post is not intended to fix blame on anyone, it is solely meant to lay out the numbers as they apply to this situation. Politicians have a field day in situations like this, playing off emotions and passions rather than understanding root causes and the basic reality of the numbers.

The following numbers come from a number of sources including a USA Today article, a National Review Article. the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund and FBI crime statistics: 
  • Over the past five years, on average 136 police officers are killed in any one year.
  • The majority of those officers are killed by black men.
  • On average, 96 black males are killed by white police officers in a year.
  • On average, 300 white males are killed by by white police officers in a year, three times the rate of blacks killed by white officers.
  • A white homicide victim is over twice as likely to be killed by a black than a black homicide victim is to be killed by a white.
  • Sixteen percent of “white” victims in homicide incidents involving a single victim and single offender were killed by blacks, compared with only 7% of black victims who are killed by “whites.” Given the fact that blacks are less than 13% of the national population, their homicide rate against whites and Hispanics combined is vastly disproportionate to their share of the population. 
Again, I am not making an conclusions or accusations about the Baltimore situation. But let’s keep the numbers in the forefront before making any accusations and proposing any solutions.

2) Any premature death is a tragedy, whether it is a car accident or a death while in police custody. But do we really need to Federalize the nation’s local police forces as Al Sharpton wants to do? There are three big problems with this idiotic suggestion. First, given that the Federal government is mostly incapable of doing anything effectively and efficiently, what makes us think that Federalization of local police forces would be a good thing along any dimension?

Second, having anything that resembles a national police force immediately brings to mind the SS of Nazi Germany. The SS were a vicious and cold blooded instrument of Hitler’s dictatorship, not a trend we would ever went to start in a democracy such as our nation.

And finally, are we overacting with a solution to a very minor problem? Consider some government statistics and numbers:
  • Local police forces have 53 million citizen contacts of all types in an average year.
  • Of those 53 million annual contacts, there are about 26,000 annual complaints of excessive police violence.
  • This is .049% of all police contacts.
  • Of those 26,000 complaints, a small minority of them (8%) turn out to be legitimate complaints of police violence.
  • Thus, the the percentage of legitimate police excessive police violence incidents is .0039% of total annual police and citizens interactions.
  • You are 7 times more likely to to be murdered, 15 times more likely to die in a car accident, and 42 times more likely to be raped than have a police officer interaction that results in excessive violence.
Again, any unnecessary death is a tragedy. But do we really want to upset the entire police structure in this country for .0039% and possibly mimic 1930s Nazi Germany? Insanity.

Please go to the following link for more details in this area:


3) But we should not be too surprised by what is going on in Baltimore, given the environment. According to the numbers in a recent NewsMax article:
  • In a city with a population of 645,000 people, there are an estimated 60,000 drug addicts, almost 10% of everyone Baltimore citizen including kids.
  • About 80% of those addicts are hooked on heroin.
  • The city’s murder rate is fifth in the nation at 37.4 murders per 100,000 people.
4) About 200 minority owned businesses in Baltimore have been burned, destroyed, or pillaged as a result of the riots, making one wonder how much the rioters were worried about racism if so many black business owners are now non-business owners. This does not help the cause of legitimate concerns over racism.

5) Taking the hurting their cause two numbers further, a recent Rasmussen poll found that only 25% of U.S. adults in the poll consider the riots to be an expression of legitimate outrage while 63% think it is mostly criminals taking advantage of the situation.

That is enough numbers for today. In an emotional situation like Baltimore we must stick to the numbers and realities as we search for solutions. Do not build solutions on opinions, build it on the numbers.


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Please visit the following sites for freedom:

Term Limits Now: http://www.howmuchworsecoulditget.com
http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.bankruptingamerica.org

http://www.conventionofstates.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w





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