May, 2015, Part 4,By The Numbers: The Next Recession is A Knocking and Libya is Rocking

On a semi-regular basis we revisit the theme "by the numbers" just to check in on the state of the country and political class using actual realities and their underlying numbers, not the spin or lies from our politicians. You see, politicians usually have nothing to gain by looking at reality and the numbers since they are more than likely to have screwed up reality and our lives in the first place.

That is why they would rather lie and deceive than tell the truth. But that approach can be destroyed by looking at the hard numbers behind the mess they have created. I once worked for a boss whose favorite saying was: "There is nothing more devastating to an opinion than the right number.” And that is what we try to do with this theme, devastate politicians’ opinions by looking at the right numbers.

So let’s take a look at the numbers that have recently cropped up and again prove that the political class in America continues to be one of the worst set of people to ever hold office, given the state of the country, the many ways they screw up our wealth and government functions, and their inability or non-desire to step up and tell the truth. This should be the last segment to this update on “by the numbers” so we will have a hodge podge of different numbers and situations.

1) Five years after the recession ended, the economy is still trying to recover, given the following lackluster numbers:

• The economy grew by only .2% on an annual basis in the first quarter of this year, well below the long term average of about 3% annually.
• Exports dropped over 7% based on a west coast dock strike and a very strong dollar.
• Consumer spending was down to 1.9% compared to 4.4% in the previous quarter.
• Business investment was down 3.4%. 

Whether this was just a bad burp in the economy or the sign that a new recession,one that is overdue,is upon us before we ever recovered from the last one, not good numbers at all.

2) Staying with the theme of whether another recession is about to be dropped on us, consider the reality that across the country about 6,000 retail outlets are scheduled to be closed this year and next, according to the website www.about.com:

• 180 stores Abercrombie & Fitch (by 2015)
• 75 stores Aeropostale (through January 2015)
• 150 stores American Eagle Outfitters (through 2017)
• 223 stores Barnes & Noble (through 2023)
• 265 stores Body Central / Body Shop
• 66 stores Bottom Dollar Food
• 25 stores Build-A-Bear (through 2015)
• 32 stores C. Wonder
• 21 stores Cache
• 120 stores Chico’s (through 2017)
• 200 stores Children’s Place (through 2017)
• 17 stores Christopher & Banks
• 70 stores Coach (fiscal 2015)
• 70 stores Coco’s /Carrows
• 300 stores Deb Shops
• 92 stores Delia’s
• 340 stores Dollar Tree/Family Dollar
• 39 stores Einstein Bros. Bagels
• 50 stores Express (through 2015)
• 31 stores Frederick’s of Hollywood
• 50 stores Fresh & Easy Grocery Stores
• 14 stores Friendly’s
• 65 Future Shop (Best Buy Canada)
• 54 stores Golf Galaxy (by 2016)
• 50 stores Guess (through 2015)
• 26 stores Gymboree
• 40 stores JCPenney
• 127 stores Jones New York Outlet
• 10 stores Just Baked
• 28 stores Kate Spade Saturday & Jack Spade
• 14 stores Macy’s
• 400 stores Office Depot/Office Max (by 2016)
• 63 stores Pep Boys (“in the coming years”)
• 100 stores Pier One (by 2017)
• 20 stores Pick ’n Save (by 2017)
• 1,784 stores Radio Shack
• 13 stores Ruby Tuesday
• 77 stores Sears
• 10 stores SpartanNash Grocery Stores
• 55 stores Staples (2015)
• 133 stores Target, Canada (bankruptcy)
• 31 stores Tiger Direct
• 200 stores Walgreens (by 2017)
• 10 stores West Marine
• 338 stores Wet Seal
• 80 stores Wolverine World Wide (2015 – Stride Rite & Keds)

Now it could be that people are finding it easier to shop online and that the closing of these many stores is just a change in shopping preferences and not a downturn in the economy. Maybe some of these closing have to do with bad management of improving competitors.

But given the diversity of the product categories being shrunk (food to auto parts to office products, etc.) and that the closings range from low cost categories (e.g. Dollar Store) to high end/high cost categories (e.g. Coach), and the sheer number of closing in a short amount of time, one could also make the case that the numbers are indicating we are heading into another recession before we fully recovered from the last one.

3) After the United States illegally and un-Constitutionally entered the Libyan civil war, along with a bunch of other Western countries to toppled that country’s dictator, the end product was not the establishment of democracy but the unending and unrelenting civil war as factions within Libya fight for political and financial control, resulting in the country being torn apart. 

In addition, millions of people are displace and in danger in the civil and terrorist war in Syria. This is resulting in hundreds of thousands of people trying to flee northern Africa for the underside of the European continent for a better life for themselves and their families. Often they are fleeing on cramped, inadequate boats as they try to cross the Mediterranean Sea.

The numbers being created by this mass movement of humanity include, according to an article in the May 8, 2015 issue of The Week magazine:

• In 2014, 215,000 people made the dangerous and successful trip across the Mediterranean with most of them ending up in Italy.
• Only 5,000 were sent home, leaving Italy with a humanity crisis dealing with over 200,000 illegal immigrants.
• Italy is also dealing with the financial cost of at sea rescues, a figure that is approaching $10 million a month.
• It is unknown how many died trying to make the crossing but authorities do know that about 900 died in one tragedy alone.
• Those 900 people were stuffed onto a boat that was only 64 feet long.
• It is estimated that Italian crime syndicates make about $170 million a year from the crossings.

Much of these unnecessary death and danger numbers are a result of the U.S. and its allies needlessly entering a foreign civil war that unleashed such a humanitarian crisis. Insane.

That will do it for this week’s look at the numbers to see where we really are and not where the political class would like us to believe where we are, two different perceptions altogether most of the time. Today the numbers show we are likely on the brink of another recession and we are already knee deep in a humanity crisis, a crisis we had a lot to do with. This week we also saw a lot of numbers pointing to the total ineptness of the IRS, the struggles of small business, the reality of Baltimore from a numbers perspective, and more. 

If we have learned anything by looking at the numbers is that we now need to assume most politicians are lying when they tell us something and not to be believed until we go “by the numbers.”

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Please visit the following sites for freedom:

Term Limits Now: http://www.howmuchworsecoulditget.com
http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.bankruptingamerica.org
http://www.conventionofstates.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w