Friday, May 29, 2015

May, 2015, Part 2, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and a Believer in Science: Forecast Model Fails

Every month we revisit the theme, “I am a global warming doubter and a believer in science.” The theme started when I got tired of people like Al Gore and others yelling and slandering anyone who dared to disagree with their view of global warming, since then rebranded as “climate change.” Yelling and demeaning people is no way to win them over to your view, which is what the Al Gores of the world are still doing.

Thus, we set off to explore ALL science, research, and realities relative to global warming, not just the handpicked science that global warming advocates cherry pick. What we have found through the years is that it is very realistic and in tune with the real world to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science.

Much science and research has been shown to debunk Al Gore’s way of thinking and slandering. And we have brought counter evidence to his view of the world every month for years. To access those previous posts, just enter the search term "I am a global warming doubter”in the search box above. 

Our intention is to start an adult, mature, science based conversation based on all available information. That has certainly not been the intention of Al Gore types. They have wanted to browbeat their views into disbelievers heads. And even if they are right about global warming, which we have proven they are quite possibly wrong about, they come up with no plans that would reunite the world around a solution. 

They only want the United States to curtail their carbon footprint, a reduction that would be dwarfed by the increasing carbon footprint of the rest of the world, especially China and India. All they would end up doing is briefly forestalling their end result while crippling the economic growth and vitality of the United States.

With that background, let’s look at what the global warming/climate change hysteria has brought us in the past month or so. Our first post this month can be accessed at:

Since then, the following global warming myths have come to light:

1) Al Gore, Barack Obama, and other global warming alarmists are always telling us that almost all scientists agree that man made global warming is growing in intensity, that the “science is settled.” Many times in this blog we have shown that to be an outright lie and now we have another example of a scientist disagreeing with their assertion.

Dr. Phillip Lloyd is a South African based physicist and climate researcher. He conducted a study where he examined so-called ice core-based temperature data going back 8,000 years in an attempt to understand global temperature changes in the past century or so. His finding: global temperature changes over the past hundred years fall well within the natural variability of the past 8,000 years.

Dr. Lloyd does have some serious credibility going for him since he is a former member of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC), the main international body that has been pushing the man made global warming position for the past few decades. His findings are obviously a direct contradiction of that IPCC effort.

His findings include the calculation that the statistical standard deviation of Earth's temperatures over the past 8,000 years was about .98 degrees Celsius.That is higher than the lower .85 degrees that some climate scientists have estimated the world has warmed in the past hundred years: “This suggests that while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major portion was due to natural variations,” Lloyd wrote in his study.

“Natural variations.” Not humanity’s burning of fossil fuels, not the use of coal, natural variations. Seems that Al Gore and others have either overlooked or decided to ignore this little piece of statistical reality. Natural variations. According to Dr. Judith Curry, a climate scientist and expert at Georgia Tech: “The magnitude of natural climate variability over the past 1000 years and even the past 100 years is hotly debated,” Curry added. “Personally, I think the role of natural climate variability has been substantially underestimated in our interpretation of recent climate change.”

This is not to say that man is not contributing to climate change, It does say that 1) the science is not settled, 2) global warming advocates continue to ignore science that is not compatible with their views, and 3) we are not going to have an adult conversation until ALL scientific data and realities are factored into to any future actions.

2) Let’s look at some more science and research that Al Gore types probably do not want us to see. A recent research paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that climate change models hyped by global warming/climate change advocates are infested with “flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis.” Furthermore, these assessment models: “can be misleading and are inappropriate as guides for policy,” argued economist Robert Pindyck. Nonetheless, the government has continued to use them to impose burdensome regulations that negatively affect the economy. 

These models forecast global weather patterns will become more extreme over time with global warming causing more hurricanes and droughts. But this analysis shows that extreme weather is not going to get worse because of global warming, meaning the move to curb global warming by punishing power plants is not going to solve a fictitious problem but severely increase energy costs and hurt economic growth.

These findings were summarized by economist Robert Murphy in an interview with the Daily Caller: “The estimates [from the climate models] keep bouncing around all over the place, and the estimates are driven by very controversial parameter choices, not objective assessments given by physicists and climatologists. In any event, the public should realize just how ‘unsettled’ the economic side of the carbon debate is.”

Now an economist is not trained to do climate science. But an economist is trained to build, use, and assess statistical models and this economic entity found those climate models, the models that global warming advocates base their hysteria on, to be faulty and near useless.

3) One big component of global warming advocates view of the world is that the ice caps are melting because of man made global warming and that eventually, if enough of the ice caps melt, there will be devastating flooding of coastal regions around the world. In fact, Al Gore predicted that there was a reasonably good chance that the entire North Pole ice cap could melt by the year 2014, another forecast that failed miserably.

Additionally, the UK’s Guardian newspaper recently reported that fifty scientists held a meeting in Tasmania to brainstorm ideas on how to better predict the size of the Antarctic ice cap. They held the meeting since there has been such a build up in the size of the ice cap, researchers cannot get close to the South Pole to do their own direct measurements. The Guardian reported that in 2014 ships “couldn’t get anywhere near” the Australian Antarctic Division’s research site on Antarctica. 

In addition, the Russian research vessel Akademik Shokalskiy got stuck in ice on Christmas Eve, 2013 on its way to show how global warming was impacting Antarctica. After being stuck on the ice for a week , an Australian icebreaker was sent to rescue them….and then it became temporarily stuck itself in the expanding Antarctic ice pack.

This past April, the Antarctic sea ice reached record levels for the month, 116,000 square miles higher than the previous record set in 2014.

So in summary, the one thing we definitely learned to today is the “science is NOT settled.” Whether it is a past member of the global warming center at the U.N. speaking out against the U.N.’s flawed position or economists debunking forecast models or the reality of growing ice caps that are at odds with the forecast models predictions, the science is not settled. And it is okay and actually quite prudent to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science….despite what Al Gore says.

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