Friday, July 15, 2016

July, 2016, Part 1, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science: El Nino, A New Theory, and a List Of Global Warming Myths

Every month we have enough material to return to a continuing theme in this blog, namely that “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.” This became of interest because of people like Al Gore who fanatically and verbosely claimed that you had to be an idiot to not believe in manmade global warming. It has been my life belief that anyone that is that loud and that obnoxious is hiding something, that rather than argue facts and reality it is better to beat down and insult anyone who disagrees.

As we have dove into the whole issue of manmade global warming, or its new rebranded title of climate change, we found that Al Gore and people like him were guilty of a number of things:

Ignoring science and realities that did not support their opinions and positions.
  • Rather than have an adult conversation about climate, these types of advocates like Gore sank to the level of insulting those who dared look at ALL science by calling them a variety of names including racists, homophobes, terrorists, flat earth believers, and other slanderous names.
  • Continuing to insist that politicians step up their intrusions into our lives with higher taxes, more regulations, and more control of our freedoms and standards of living based on a shaky theory at best.
To see the past posts and the multitude of evidence that we have compiled that showed it is perfectly okay to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, enter the phrase "global warming doubter” in the search box above or go through the monthly historical posts listed on the right side of this page.

Thus, let’s see the latest facts and science that prove you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, regardless of what Al Gore proclaims:

1) Patrick J, Michaels, writing for the Cato Institute on July 1, 2016, reviewed the latest scientific data as it regards actual air temperatures as actually measured by satellites. His insights are important because a lot of global warming advocates were pointing to the recent hot weather as evidence that global warming was real. Global warming doubters were pointing to historical temperature trends which showed that higher temperatures should be expected since an El Nino weather pattern had formed in the Pacific and that historically, that raises temperatures in the U.S.

The satellites’ recordings include the following highlights:
  • Mr. Michaels sets up the science with the following El Nino summary: “For months we have been saying that, once they started dropping, the satellite temperatures—our only truly global measure—were going to go down with a vengeance, which is what usually happens after a strong El Niño event spikes a fever. El Niño is a dramatic slowdown (or even a reversal) in the trade winds that diverge surface water away from the South American coast, “upwelling” much colder subsurface waters. When that stops, global temperatures rocket upwards, but that also builds up more and more cold water to be unleashed when the trade winds resume.”
  • The satellite based temperature readings in the lower atmosphere are already showing a dramatic drop in the past four months as the El Nino starts to break up.
  • In fact, according to Roy Spencer of University of Alabama-Huntsville, who publishes the satellite data, the drop in temperatures the past in the last two months was the second-largest drop ever.
  • It missing being the biggest drop the record by only 0.01⁰C. 
  • The existing record was set, wait for it, after the slightly bigger 1997-8 El Niño. 
  • In the tropics, where El Niño is the strongest, the drop was the largest in the entire 37-year record of keeping track of temps by satellite.
  • Despite the current strong El Nino, the overall change in temps has been basically flat, subject to random error variation, over the past 20 years.
It is so much easier to be a global warming doubter when we have actual, government data to prove our point and so much harder to be a global warming advocate when data destroys pre-conceived notions of what they believe. We will keep an eye on this data over the next six months or so when we expect the fading of El Nino will further reduce overall air temperatures as measured by the satellites.

2) The website,, probably does not have the reporting heft or reputation of say the New York Times and the Washington Post. So, it would be easy for global warming advocates to look at this tiny website and pooh pooh anything it says that would contradict what Al Gore told the advocates for global warming. In fact, they would probably ignore the following assertions by this website that was recently published on their site:
  • The global “truth” that people like Al Gore and Barack Obama like to spout is that 97% of climate scientists say the science is settled and that humanity is the prime suspect in driving up Earth’s temperatures. However, the article points out, correctly, given that we have already reported on this in previous posts, that this number was passed on a too small of a sample size of only 77 people, that was selectively and biasedly drawn from a much larger sample size who responded to a survey. You cannot base government policy and laws on such a small, skewed sample.
  • There are 35 “lies” in Al Gore’s global warming movie, “An Inconvenient Truth.”
  • Only 32% of the country is really worried about global warming which is about the same percentage of people that were worried about global cooling back in the 1980s.
  • If global warming is so bad and that it will eventually wipe out shore communities, why did Al Gore buy a California beach mansion a number of years ago?
  • Al Gore predicted back in 2008 that the entire North Pole could be melted by 2013 but it is still there and has been growing in ice size over the past few years.
The article goes through many more “facts” about global warming. What gives this obscure website credibility is that it sources every assertion it makes which allows the reader to easily go to the link that is the basis for the assertion, links that take you to far more famous websites and research sources. To check out the above, alleged global warming fallacies and others to judge for yourself, click on the following link:

I think you will be surprised how much information that Al Gore types are not telling you but are suppressing to keep their myths alive.

3) It is no secret that just about every global warming forecast over the past two decades has been a prediction disaster. These models have not come close to even remotely predicting what the Earth’s temperatures would be in the future. 

They are so bad that anyone who thinks that today’s global warming forecast models will do any better has just not been paying attention to the disaster that is climate forecasting. All of which raises a very valid question: if you have had grossly incorrect forecasts since day one, why should we believe your forecasts today will do any better job of predicting the future?

But there is a new scientific study and theory out that explains global warming and global cooling in one grand theory. To me, a non-climate scientist, the new theory seems logical and and helps explain why the Earth’s temperatures have been going up (global warming) and then followed by those temperatures going down (global cooling) over the history of the entire Earth. Rather than me trying to explain the theory, let me quote a description of it from a recent article that was on the Daily Caller website: “Now comes a new study which challenges the role that CO2 plays in our planet’s average temperature. The paper, “Modulation of ice ages via precession and dust-albedo feedbacks” by Ralph Ellis, asserts that carbon dioxide’s main mode of operation on planetary climate has to do with its interaction with terrestrial plant life: as CO2 levels decline after an extended ice-age, plants die off in areas such as the high steppes of Mongolia, causing a big upsurge in dust storms which coat the Northern Hemisphere’s ice fields, lowering their reflectiveness (albedo) resulting in the Earth coming out of an ice-age. After about 5,000 years, the planet, now with high CO2 concentrations, goes back into an ice-age as the Earth’s 23,000-year precession cycle swings the Northern Hemisphere away from the Sun.

Ellis’ paper provides an explanation for what the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) called, “one of the major unsolved questions in climate research” — that is, what caused the large CO2 variations in the past and how they were linked to climate. Of course, one would think that such a large unanswered question might be resolved before creating dozens of climate models that all assume a dominant role for CO2 as a direct agent in making the planet warmer or cooler depending on how much of it is present in the atmosphere.”

Here you have a comprehensive, logical, and testable theory about CO2 and how it affects both global warming AND global cooling. It is so much more viable and robust than just taking a few decades of temperature data and trying to extrapolate it out for several more decades. As a trained, degreed statistician, it is my view that the proposal by Mr. Ellis has likely far more statistical validity than the failed, simplistic historic global warming forecast models. And if he is right, than Al Gore et al are wrong and it becomes more realistic to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, the type of scientific thinking espoused by Mr. Ellis.

More discussion tomorrow on why it is perfectly rational and sane to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science.

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