December, 2018,Part 3, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science: Taking Apart the Latest Global Warming Gloom and Doom Forecast

Every month we have enough material to return to a continuing theme in this blog, namely that “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.” This became of interest because of people like Al Gore who fanatically and verbosely claimed that you had to be an idiot to not believe in manmade global warming. It has been my life belief that anyone that is that loud and that obnoxious is hiding something, that rather than argue facts and reality it is better to beat down and insult anyone who disagrees.

As we have dove into the whole issue of man made global warming, or its new rebranded title of climate change, we found that Al Gore and people like him were guilty of a number of things:

• Ignoring science and realities that did not support their opinions and positions.
• Rather than have an adult conversation about climate, these types of advocates like Gore sank to the level of insulting those who dared look at ALL science by calling them a variety of names including racists, homophobes, terrorists, flat earth believers, and other slanderous names.
• Continuing to insist that politicians step up their intrusions into our lives with higher taxes, more regulations, and more control on our freedoms and standards of living based on a shaky theory at best.

To see the past posts and the multitude of evidence that we have compiled that showed it is perfectly okay to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, enter the phrase "global warming doubter” in the search box above or go through the monthly historical post listed on the right side of this page.

Thus, let’s see the latest facts and science that prove you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, regardless of what Al Gore proclaim.

1) Our last post focused on how every global warming forecast over the decades has usually been proven to be an utter failure. Yesterday our focus was on failed Al Gore forecasts and the failed predictions from his global warming alarmist movie, “An Inconvenient Truth.” From melting ice caps to rising seas to more and more intense storms, all his forecasts were dead wrong.

However, despite this dismal record of forecasting the future disasters as a result of manmade global warming, the Federal government recently came out with yet another dire, depressing forecast of what mankind is doing to the environment and how it will be a disaster for us all. Never mind that these forecasts of gloom and doom have been flying out of people for decades and they have all been wrong. Somehow we are again supposed to believe this latest one is right, despite the dismal climate forecasting history, and start preparing for a disaster that is likely to never come, based on the history of global warming alarmism.

So today, let’s take a detailed look at exactly what this latest government forecast is and the details underneath the headlines, headlines that the mainstream liberal media is more than willing to trumpet without understanding the underlying assumptions and possible weaknesses of this latest forecast:

• Kelly, writing for the Self Reliance Central Website, did not mince words on how this latest forecast may be just as wrong and shoddy of the previous ones with her article, “Don’t Believe the Scary Predictions From the National Climate Assessment.”
• This put her in direct conflict with the Washington Post and their assessment of the “National Climate Assessment” report: “The weather of Washington’s future: Hellish heat and high water.”
• Or NPR’s reporting: “New U.S. climate assessment forecasts dire effects on economy, health.” 
• Or CBS News’ reporting: “Mass deaths and mayhem: National Climate Assessment’s most shocking warnings.”
• What did the actual report say relative to deaths: “In 49 large cities in the United States, changes in extreme hot and extreme cold temperatures are projected to result in more than 9,000 additional premature deaths per year under a higher scenario by the end of the century, although this number would be lower if considering acclimatization or other adaptations (for example, increased use of air conditioning).”
• Two things to notice about this assertion, things not covered by the mainstream media reports. First, note the use of the words “higher scenario,” so this 9,000 estimate is probably a worst case scenario, something not captured by the headlines above.
• Second, the report itself says that this outlier, high number could be even lower if use more air conditioning.
• This estimate is based on a 2016 study that applied mortality data to climate models that predicted more and more intense heat waves, something that has failed to materialize over the past decades despite the warnings of global warming advocates.
• But analysis by the American Geophysical Union cast even more doubt on these estimates and their methodology: “These probabilities are typically computed using ensembles of climate simulations whose simulated probabilities are known to be imperfect..… Climate model ensembles tend to be overconfident in their representation of the climate variability which leads to systematic increase in the attributable risk to an extreme event.”
• Use of phrases like “simulate probabilities,” “imperfect,” and “tend to be overconfident” kind of put that 9,000 number even more in doubt.

So how did the report get to the 9,000 incremental death number? They used a worst case scenario, they admitted they did not account for adaption, they used climate simulations (not real data and experience), their numbers in this area could be imperfect, and they have been wrong/over confident in the past. Hardly gives one a warm, fuzzy feeling that this is actually what is going to happen, the shallow yet sensationalistic headlines notwithstanding.

2) The report also does some very shaky math calculations based on this worst case scenario. It claims that these 9,000 premature, global warming caused deaths will result in an annual loss to the economy of $140 billion. But if we divide that $140 billion by the 9,000 premature deaths we see that each death is worth about $15 million to the economy.

This simple ratio casts further doubt on these estimates: no matter how valuable an asset any one person is, I cannot imagine anyone costing the economy $15 million. Nonsense.

3) The article went on to explain that what people like Al Gore and global warming advocates want to do could actually make the situation worse and their solution could result in MORE deaths, not fewer:

• If global warming advocates actually get governments to place so-called carbon taxes on existing carbon based fuels, driving up the cost of such fuels, many in the lower income levels in the world would be less able to afford heat and air conditioning because of the higher costs and suffer even more.
• This is called “energy poverty,” the inability to pay for the increased energy costs.
• This situation is already a problem in the European Union as the article points out: “More than 50 million households in the European Union are struggling to attain adequate warmth, pay their utility bills on time, and live in homes free of damp and mold. Awareness of energy poverty is rising in Europe and has been identified as a policy priority by a number of EU institutions, most notably in the European Commission’s ‘Clean Energy for All Europeans’ legislative package.”

So we have a real potential here, as we often do when politicians act on the wrong problems with the wrong solutions, that trying to reduce global warming could actually cause more people to die beyond even what the global warming advocates claim will die, an estimate that is shoddy to begin with.

Okay, this is one person’s take on how stupid, unlikely, and dangerous this report is and how shallowly the mainstream media reported on it, going the hysterical route rather than the logical, non-biased route. But this is only the start, more discussions in the coming posts that further take apart yet another global warming gloom and doom forecast, one that I have little doubt will be as wrong and inaccurate as all of the previous ones once we look underneath the hood of global warming hysteria.

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