June, 2017, Part 3, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science: Believing Bogus Data But Ignoring Reality

Every month we have enough material to return to a continuing theme in this blog, namely that “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.” This became of interest because of people like Al Gore who fanatically and verbosely claimed that you had to be an idiot to not believe in manmade global warming. It has been my life belief that anyone that is that loud and that obnoxious is hiding something, that rather than argue facts and reality it is better to beat down and insult anyone who disagrees

As we have dove into the whole issue of manmade global warming, or its new rebranded title of climate change, we found that Al Gore and people like him were guilty of a number of things:

• Ignoring science and realities that did not support their opinions and positions.
• Rather than have an adult conversation about climate, these types of advocates like Gore sank to the level of insulting those who dared look at ALL science by calling them a variety of names including racists, homophobes, terrorists, flat earth believers, and other slanderous names.
• Continuing to insist that politicians step up their intrusions into our lives with higher taxes, more regulations, and more control of our freedoms and standards of living based on a shaky theory at best.

To see the past posts and the multitude of evidence that we have compiled that showed it is perfectly okay to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, enter the phrase "global warming doubter” in the search box above or go through the monthly historical posts listed on the right side of this page.

Thus, let’s see the latest facts and science that prove you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, regardless of what Al Gore proclaims.

1) We have often talked about the myths of “the science is settled” and “97% of climate scientists” claim mankind is causing massive global warming and climate change. Despite the idiocy of these claims, climate change advocates keep throwing them out without knowing how wrong they are.

Thus, as a community service, let’s start off today’s discussion with a review of how stupid that 97% number is. Kay Francis, writing for the IHave The Truth website on May 29, 2017 did a nice review of how the bogus 97% number was arrived at:

• The basis of the 97% was a calculation based on a tiny sample of 77n climate scientists.
• Of all the scientists and climate scientists in the world, this wide misused statistic is based on the opinions of only 77 people.
• This tiny sample is actually a tiny subsample of a survey that was done back in 2009 by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) that was actually only a brief two question online a survey sent to 10,257 earth scientists by two researchers from the University of Illinois.
• As a side note not mentioned in the article, it is my recollection that one of the researchers was a masters candidate, i.e. she did not even have a masters degree in the field yet never mind being an experienced Phd scientist.
• The 3,146 people responded to the survey and then the data was manipulated and cut and hacked down to only 77 respondents, out of which 75 said that mankind was causing significant global warming and climate change.
• Thus, out of the 10,257 surveys sent out, the conclusion is based on less than .8% of the population mailed and less than 2.6% of the respondents.
• Larry Bell of Forbes sums up the results nicely: “Then of those [3,146 that actually took the survey], only a small subset, just 77 who had been successful in getting more than half of their papers recently accepted by peer-reviewed climate science journals, were considered in their survey statistic. That “98% all scientists” referred to a laughably puny number of 75 of those 77 who answered “yes.”

Now, do you want to believe 75 people or do you want to believe the 31,000 scientists that have signed on to a resolution since 1998 which stipulates that: “…there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate.”

As a trained statistician, I kinda freak out when non-statisticians use numbers carelessly like this. We have no idea if the original sample was balanced and representative of the reality of the world and we have no idea if the respondent pool was skewed and whether or not the respondent poll was correctly adjusted, or adjusted at all, to represent the population. But we do know that certain publication criteria was used to get to the tine sample size of 77 and thus, guarantee the answer the researchers wanted.

There is an old statistician saying that goes as follows: “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.” This is a classic example of data torture, you start with 10,000 people, you get responses from 3,000 people, you then put specific and biased restrictions on who you want to count and you then assume that a tiny, tiny subset of respondents, that you artificially created represents the world. Bad research with bad results, all done under the guise of data torture.

2) For almost twenty years, the Earth’s overall temperature stood still. This long, flat trend created a serious problem for global warming advocates whose dire predictions needed the Earth’s temps to continue to rise steadily over the years in order for their theories and views to be valid. 

In desperation, global warming advocates went into overdrive to save their precious theory. They started coming up with hypotheses that all of a sudden the extra heat was being stored deep in the ocean depths or that global warming had simply “paused,” as if it was a marathon runner who stopped to catch his breath. Or more conveniently, they simply ignored the pause in rising temperatures and pretended it did not exist.

But then 2016 came along and it was a very hot year. All of a sudden, global warming advocates were back in full throat and yelling that global warming was back, based on one data point! They were mostly silent when almost twenty years of data points showed a trend of flat temperatures but then burst out when one data point, 2016, experiences hot temperatures.

But as a statistician will tell you, one data point is not a trend. According to an article published in the journal, Science of the Total Environment, in February:

• Despite the findings in 2016 that the temperatures at the South Pole were warmer than usual, sending global warming advocates into a frenzy, this recent study indicates that the Antarctic Peninsula has actually been cooling over the past three decades.
• The study also concluded that there has been a “slow-down of glacier recession, a shift to surface mass gains of the peripheral glacier and a thinning of the active layer of permafrost in northern AP islands.” In other words, it is still  cold down south

One data point does not make a trend, around the world or at the south pole. We already know that the higher than usual temps in 2016 were caused by a massive El Nino weather effect in 2016, an effect that been dissipating and with it, the return to cooler temperatures. One data point does not make a trend, despite what Al Gore types and their resultant hysteria claim.

3) One last point for today. In recent Senate hearings, Senator Bernie Sanders showed his ignorance when it comes to misusing statistics when he claimed that: “97 percent of scientists who have written articles for peer-reviewed journals have concluded that climate change is real, it is caused by human activity, and it is already causing devastating problems in our country and around the world.” 

Of course, he was referring to the stupid, invalid and bogus survey dissected above where 77 people are considered to be 97% of ALL scientists. Still no cure for stupid...or ignorance.

That will do it for today: basing conclusions on bad data and bad research and ignoring real data from the real world. Sounds about right for your typical global warming/climate change advocate, even those sitting in Congress. More to follow.

Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:

www.loathemygovernment.com

It is also available online at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Please pass our message of freedom onward. Let your friends and family know about our websites and blogs, ask your library to carry the book, and respect freedom for both yourselves and others everyday.

Please visit the following sites for freedom:


http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.bankruptingamerica.org
http://www.conventionofstates.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w

August, 2016, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science: Growing Ice Caps, Losing the First Amendment, and More Failed Global Warming Forecasts

Every month we have enough material to return to a continuing theme in this blog, namely that “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.”This became of interest because of people like Al Gore who fanatically and verbosely claimed that you had to be an idiot to not believe in manmade global warming. It has been my life belief that anyone that is that loud and that obnoxious is hiding something, that rather than argue facts and reality it is better to beat down and insult anyone who disagrees.

As we have dove into the whole issue of manmade global warming, or its new rebranded title of climate change, we found that Al Gore and people like him were guilty of a number of things:

• Ignoring science and realities that did not support their opinions and positions.
• Rather than have an adult conversation about climate, these types of advocates like Gore sank to the level of insulting those who dared look at ALL science by calling them a variety of names including racists, homophobes, terrorists, flat earth believers, and other slanderous names.
• Continuing to insist that politicians step up their intrusions into our lives with higher taxes, more regulations, and more control of our freedoms and standards of living based on a shaky theory at best.

To see the past posts and the multitude of evidence that we have compiled that showed it is perfectly okay to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, enter the phrase "global warming doubter” in the search box above or go through the monthly historical posts listed on the right side of this page.

Thus, let’s see the latest facts and science that prove you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, regardless of what Al Gore proclaims:

1) If manmade global warming was a reality then one would not expect the ice sheets at the North and South poles to be expanding. In fact, Al Gore predicted about a decade ago that there was a more than even chance that by 2015 the Arctic ice sheet would be completely melted due to manmade global warming. Scary stuff.

But in reality, the poles’ ice has not completely melted. It has actually been growing despite mankind pumping more and more carbon into the atmosphere over time:

• Earlier this year, real scientists reported that the Arctic ice cap was actually expanding by one million square miles of ice.
• Now NASA has reported that the Antarctic ice sheet is also getting larger and larger over time.
• More snow and ice is being added than the amount of volume being lost by the Antarctic glaciers.
• The NASA satellite data showed that the Antarctic ice sheet has grown by more than 112 billion tons of ice a YEAR from 1992 to 2001 when the annual net gain slowed to only 82 billion tons of ice every year from 2003 to 2008. 
• At this rate of slowing, ice would continue to be added to the South Pole ice sheet for another thirty years or so.

Thus, another example where global warming advocates’ forecast models prove to be totally ineffective and inacccurate. No notable global warming model predicted that the amount of snow and ice at the poles would be INCREASING over time which is what actually happened. Thus, maybe we should all take a deep breath and now have an adult conversation on the climate? Because continuing to yell that the “science is settled” is no longer a valid claim.

2) We have previously reported that many state attorney generals, all Democrats, are actually pressing to prosecute any American citizen who dares to be a global warming doubter. Given that we have proven dozens and dozens of times that there are significant and valid reasons to be a global warming doubter using ALL of the available science, research, and statistics available, this overstepping of by these attorney generals is nothing more than the destruction of the First Amendment.

And most Americans agree with this position that prosecuting anyone who has a different opinion than a politician is not a good thing. According to a recent article on the Fix The Nation website, “According to a new Rasmussen Reports poll, 69% of likely U.S. voters reject the idea of letting the government investigate and prosecute companies or individuals that question the consensus view of climate change. Only 15% of those surveyed said they would support such investigations.

Interestingly, this idea does not even have widespread support among registered Democrats. The poll shows that only 21% of Democratic voters support prosecuting climate change “deniers.” In fact, the poll reveals that only 28% of Democrats believe that the scientific debate about climate change is settled.”

Just like just about every other issue facing Americans today, from gun control to individual freedom to race relations to immigration to energy strategies, the American political class is out of step with the rest of the country. This is what happens when greedy, ego driven, and small minded people get elected, they think they know what is best when they do not even know reality.

3) Above we discussed the reality that the South Pole ice sheets continue to grow at a steady pass even though mankind continues to use carbon based fuel sources. But things are not much different at the North Pole. A recent expedition to the North Pole to measure the impacts of global warming had to be stopped when the ship transporting the scientists was stopped by ice packs near Murmansk, Russia.

The expedition was named the Polar Ocean Challenge and it was trying to do a two month trip to prove: “that the Arctic sea ice coverage shrinks back so far now in the summer months that sea that was permanently locked up now can allow passage through.” 

Apparently that objective failed when there was so much ice that the ship could not get through, likely due to lower than expected temperatures.

4) Let's finish off today’s global warming doubter post with a retro look back. Back in 2008, ABC News warned that New York City would be under water by 2015 due to manmade global warming. They also had a bunch of forecasts that did not quite work out: 

• New York City would be under water.
• Gas would cost over $9 a gallon.
• A carton of milk would cost almost $13.

This was supposed to be life by June 12, 2015. More global warming forecasts that were completely wrong. To see the original ABC News report, go to:

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/06/flashback-abc-news-warns-nyc-will-be-under-water-by-2015-due-to-global-warming-and-polar-bears-will-fall-from-sky/

Growing ice at both poles, Americans not wanting to lose their First Amendment rights to overreaching politicians, and more failed global warming forecasts. Why being a global warming doubter and a believer in science is still a rational decision and position to take when you look at ALL of the available realities.

Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:

www.loathemygovernment.com

It is also available online at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Please pass our message of freedom onward. Let your friends and family know about our websites and blogs, ask your library to carry the book, and respect freedom for both yourselves and others everyday.

Please visit the following sites for freedom:

Term Limits Now: http://www.howmuchworsecoulditget.com
http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.bankruptingamerica.org
http://www.conventionofstates.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w

November, 2015,Part 1,I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science: Killer Pumpkins, Larger Ice Caps and More

Every month we have enough material to return to a continuing theme in this blog, namely that “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.”This became of interest because of people like Al Gore who fanatically and verbosely claimed that you had to be an idiot to not believe in man made global warming. It has been my life belief that anyone that is that loud and that obnoxious is hiding something, that rather than argue facts and reality it is better to beat down and insult anyone who disagrees.

As we have dove into the whole issue of man made global warming, or its new rebranded title of climate change, we found that Al Gore and people like him were guilty of a number of things:

• Ignoring science and realities that did not support their opinions and positions.
• Rather than have an adult conversation about climate, these types of advocates like Gore sank to the level of insulting those who dared look at ALL science by calling them a variety of names including racists, homophobes, terrorists, flat earth believers, and other slanderous names.
• Continuing to insist that politicians step up their intrusions into our lives with higher taxes, more regulations, and more control on our freedoms and standards of living based on a shaky theory at best.

To see the past posts and the multitude of evidence that we have compiled that showed it is perfectly okay to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, enter the phrase "global warming doubter” in the search box above or go through the monthly historical post listed on the right side of this page.

Thus, let’s see the latest facts and science that prove you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, regardless of what Al Gore proclaims:

1) According to Al Gore types, just about anything that happens in the world is causing dangerous global warming and climate change. We have previously reported how a global warming advocate claimed that beavers building dams was contributing to global warming and climate change. The fact that beavers have been building dams for thousands of years without raising a claim that they were messing up the environment seems lost on those that claim the beavers are a problem today.

Staying with the insane line of reasoning, let’s move from beavers screwing up the Earth to pumpkins and Halloween screwing up the Earth. Obama’s Department of Energy recently released a report that warns Americans that pumpkins are a hazard to the Earth and its climate. Yes, pumpkins, an organic substance. According to the Department’s website, 1.3 billion pounds of pumpkins end up in the trash after the holidays. The reasoning then proceeds to assert that those pumpkin leftovers end up in landfills where they turn into methane which is bad for the environment and the climate.

But how bad could it be? According to the same website, these 1.3 million pounds are part of the “more than 254 million tons municipal solid waste produced in the United States every year.” Thus, pumpkin waste of 1.3 million POUNDS makes up just over .2% of the 254 million TONS. Really, .2%. And if we took pumpkin pie out of the holidays, it would likely be replaced with some other sort of food which would likely also create methane gas somewhere, someplace. 

When you end up blaming beavers and pumpkins for the issue at hand, with little or any scientific or logical basis, your credibility of being a believer in man made global warming AND science takes a huge hit.

2) Over five years ago Al Gore predicted that by today the entire Arctic ice capo may melt because of man made global warming. Many other global warming advocates and forecast models predicted that both ice caps would deteriorate in size quickly over time gbecause of man made global warming conditions.

Well,more than five years later the Arctic ice cap is still more or less intact and according to the latest data from MASA, the Antarctic ice cap is actually increasing in overall size. NASA satellite measurements show that the Antarctic ice cap showed a net GAIN of 112 billion tons of ice a YEAR from 1992 to 2001. The ice mass continued to grow, at a slower rate, from 2003 to 2008 at the rate of about 82 billion tons of ice a year.

Of course, these facts and realities will not damper the advocacy of some global warming believers. Jay Zwally,a long time global warming advocate who works at NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies is not giving an inch in the face of these facts: “I know some of the climate deniers will jump on this, and say this means we don’t have to worry as much as some people have been making out. It should not take away from the concern about climate warming.”

Nobody is saying we should not ignore the climate but in light of these new facts it is pretty clear that the :deniers” are on much firmer factual ground than the advocates who bet a lot of their credibility and theories on the shrinking of the ice caps, a reality that is not happening.

3) Richard Tol is a renowned environmental economist who is also a global warming advocate. Tol is a lead author of a United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) working group. But even he has some doubts on how the entire global warming issue has been handled by the U.N.,  politicians and governments, and he recently put forth the following criticisms:

• The past 25 years of global warming activity by world leaders and politicians and their past and current climate policies have only ended up making most people in the world a bit poorer but enriching those in politically favored industries or those that are connected to power politicians:“Twenty-five years of climate policy has made most of us a little poorer,” but also made “some of us a little richer,”  meaning to those political cronies that receive green energy subsidies and government grants.
• Tol asserts that climate policies have been more about “rewarding allies with rents and subsidies rather than emissions reduction.”
• Tol believes that political policies to cut carbon emissions have basically had no effect over the past 25 years.
• Tol has accused the U.N.’s IPCC, that body's climate change and global warming machine, of overstating the impacts of global warming and for their comparing global warming to an “apocalypse.”
• He has also written on how the much used and abused phony statistic, “97% of scientists believe in man made global warming,” is total fiction.
• Tol does not think anything substantive and good will come out of the upcoming Paris talks on the climate but ironically points out that governments and politicians spend $100 million sending scientists and themselves around the world each year to climate conferences. Obviously, $100 million is a lot of carbon emissions for very little climate improvement.

So even a long term advocate of global warming thinks that 1) the problem is not as bad as some hysterical people like Al Gore might make it out to be and 2) what makes anyone think that the world’s politicians can get anything right today about the climate when for the past 25 years they got nothing right?

That will do it for today, more proof that being a global warming doubter and a believer in science is a viable and rational decision, especially when you see that blaming pumpkins for climate change is a far stretch (about a .2% stretch), that the ice caps are not melting away based on facts and actual observations, and that a leading global warming advocate believes things are not as bad as the U.N. might tell you and that the world’s politicians are ill equipped to handle the truth even if global warming is a reality. More tomorrow.

Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:

www.loathemygovernment.com

It is also available online at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Please pass our message of freedom onward. Let your friends and family know about our websites and blogs, ask your library to carry the book, and respect freedom for both yourselves and others everyday.

Please visit the following sites for freedom:

Term Limits Now: http://www.howmuchworsecoulditget.com
http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.bankruptingamerica.org
http://www.conventionofstates.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w

September, 2015, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science: Antarctic Ice Growing Quickly and As Hurricanes Go Away

Every month we have enough material to return to a continuing theme in this blog, namely that “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.” This became of interest because of people like Al Gore who fanatically and verbosely claimed that you had to be an idiot to not believe in manmade global warming. It has been my life belief that anyone that is that loud and that obnoxious is hiding something, that rather than argue facts and reality it is better to beat down and insult anyone who disagrees.

As we have dove into the whole issue of manmade global warming, or its new rebranded title of climate change, we found that Al Gore and people like him were guilty of a number of things:

• Ignoring science and realities that did not support their opinions and positions.
• Rather than have an adult conversation about climate, these types of advocates like Gore sank to the level of insulting those who dared look at ALL science by calling them a variety of names including racists, homophobes, terrorists, flat earth believers, and other slanderous names.
• Continuing to insist that politicians step up their intrusions into our lives with higher taxes, more regulations, and more control on our freedoms and standards of living based on a shaky theory at best.

To see the past posts and the multitude of evidence that we have compiled that showed it is perfectly okay to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, enter the phrase "global warming doubter” in the search box above or go through the monthly historical posts listed on the right side of this page.

Thus, let’s see the latest facts and science that prove you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, regardless of what Al Gore proclaims.

1) Jason Samenow, writing for the Washington Post on September 23, 2015, posted an article that stated the Antarctic sea ice had recently hit a 35 year high. This is hardly what one would expect if man made global warming was actually a reality.

Details from the article including the following facts:

• The sea ice has grown to a record size for the second straight year, minimizing the possibility that this was a single year fluke.
• The size of the ice sheet is now 19.51 million square kilometers according to the stats from the National Snow and Ice Data Center website.
• This is the largest size of the ice sheet since records were began back in late 1978, i.e. the time period when supposedly global warming was taking over the world.
• In many recent months, the size of the ice sheet was beyond two standard deviations, indicating that from a statistical perspective the ice sheet is significantly larger than expected.
• Jimlum Zhang, an obvious global warming supporter from the University of Washington, is puzzled: “The overwhelming evidence is that the Southern Ocean is warming. Why would sea ice be increasing? Although the rate of increase is small, it is a puzzle to scientists.”
• As we have pointed out many times, global warming scientists’ forecast models have always been wrong and this is just another example of global warming scientists being wrong in their theories relative to reality, according to Colorado State University atmospheric scientist Elizabeth Barnes: “This modeled Antarctic sea ice decrease in the last three decades is at odds with observations, which show a small yet statistically significant increase in sea ice extent.”
• And in yet another global warming excuse for bad theories and forecasting, a recent study by Lorenzo Polvani and Karen Smith of Columbia University hypothesizes that the model-defying sea ice increase may just reflect natural variability. 

Right. How come when a single data point that supports a global warming advocate’s view is hyped as a trend but then a multi-year trend is justified, poorly, as “natural variation?” Hypocrisy.

2) Lets follow up on the point made above that global warming advocates like to explain anything that upsets their reality as a fluke while they jump on any single event that might prove their views. If a wildfire breaks out in the American west, it must be caused by global warming even though if you look at the history of American west wildfires you will see the number of fires has actually been declining during the most intense years of supposed global warming.

If a drought breaks out somewhere, then it must be caused by global warming even though 1) the world has been having droughts from the beginning of time and 2) if you actually look at the data, the number of droughts has actually been decreasing during the global warming hysteria.

Same thing with hurricanes. When Hurricane Katrina swept through the southern states ten years ago, the global warming advocates went nuts, trying to make the connection between global warming and Katrina. They shouted and stomped their feet that Katrina, a single weather event, was going to be repeated over and over as global warming swept over the world.

But Katrina was also a false flag, according to an analysis of government and other data that was published in the September 11, 2015 issue of The Week magazine:

• In the history of the deadliest hurricanes that have hit the U.S., Katrina was not even the worst one.
• It ends up as the third worst deadliest hurricane to hit, reaching only a Category 3 status.
• Two other hurricanes were actually Category 4 hurricanes and they hit in 1900 and 1928, long, long before global warming was even a theory.
• The worst hurricane to hit the U.S. occurred in Texas in 1900 and killed 8,000 people, more than four times as many people that Katrina killed in a year that had far fewer people living in Texas. Again, the worst hurricane from a power and death perspective occurred about 70 years before global warming was being discussed.
• Of the other seven worst hurricanes to hit the U.S., they occurred between 1856 and 1957, long before global warming fears and mania were going on.

Thus, another global warming myth is destroyed, there has only been one significant, top ten hurricane to hit the country during the entire global warming era. Having lived in Florida for the past ten years and experienced a grand total of zero hurricanes, I have seen first hand that the extreme hurricane weather predicted by global warming advocates just never materialized. Katrina was not a trend, it was an abnormal blip.This post will get this month’s global warming/climate change updates going. We will go through another post or two in the coming days which will prove again, that it is perfectly sane and rational and scientific to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science. Just ask the the Antarctic ice sheet and those that have NOT suffered through the horrendous hurricane weather that Al Gore types loudly predicted.
Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:

www.loathemygovernment.com

It is also available online at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Please pass our message of freedom onward. Let your friends and family know about our websites and blogs, ask your library to carry the book, and respect freedom for both yourselves and others everyday.

Please visit the following sites for freedom:

Term Limits Now: http://www.howmuchworsecoulditget.com
http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.bankruptingamerica.org
http://www.conventionofstates.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w

May, 2015, Part 2, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and a Believer in Science: Forecast Model Fails

Every month we revisit the theme, “I am a global warming doubter and a believer in science.” The theme started when I got tired of people like Al Gore and others yelling and slandering anyone who dared to disagree with their view of global warming, since then rebranded as “climate change.” Yelling and demeaning people is no way to win them over to your view, which is what the Al Gores of the world are still doing.

Thus, we set off to explore ALL science, research, and realities relative to global warming, not just the handpicked science that global warming advocates cherry pick. What we have found through the years is that it is very realistic and in tune with the real world to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science.

Much science and research has been shown to debunk Al Gore’s way of thinking and slandering. And we have brought counter evidence to his view of the world every month for years. To access those previous posts, just enter the search term "I am a global warming doubter”in the search box above. 

Our intention is to start an adult, mature, science based conversation based on all available information. That has certainly not been the intention of Al Gore types. They have wanted to browbeat their views into disbelievers heads. And even if they are right about global warming, which we have proven they are quite possibly wrong about, they come up with no plans that would reunite the world around a solution. 

They only want the United States to curtail their carbon footprint, a reduction that would be dwarfed by the increasing carbon footprint of the rest of the world, especially China and India. All they would end up doing is briefly forestalling their end result while crippling the economic growth and vitality of the United States.

With that background, let’s look at what the global warming/climate change hysteria has brought us in the past month or so. Our first post this month can be accessed at:

http://loathemygovernment.blogspot.com/2015/05/may-2015-i-am-global-warming-doubter.html

Since then, the following global warming myths have come to light:

1) Al Gore, Barack Obama, and other global warming alarmists are always telling us that almost all scientists agree that man made global warming is growing in intensity, that the “science is settled.” Many times in this blog we have shown that to be an outright lie and now we have another example of a scientist disagreeing with their assertion.

Dr. Phillip Lloyd is a South African based physicist and climate researcher. He conducted a study where he examined so-called ice core-based temperature data going back 8,000 years in an attempt to understand global temperature changes in the past century or so. His finding: global temperature changes over the past hundred years fall well within the natural variability of the past 8,000 years.

Dr. Lloyd does have some serious credibility going for him since he is a former member of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC), the main international body that has been pushing the man made global warming position for the past few decades. His findings are obviously a direct contradiction of that IPCC effort.

His findings include the calculation that the statistical standard deviation of Earth's temperatures over the past 8,000 years was about .98 degrees Celsius.That is higher than the lower .85 degrees that some climate scientists have estimated the world has warmed in the past hundred years: “This suggests that while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major portion was due to natural variations,” Lloyd wrote in his study.

“Natural variations.” Not humanity’s burning of fossil fuels, not the use of coal, natural variations. Seems that Al Gore and others have either overlooked or decided to ignore this little piece of statistical reality. Natural variations. According to Dr. Judith Curry, a climate scientist and expert at Georgia Tech: “The magnitude of natural climate variability over the past 1000 years and even the past 100 years is hotly debated,” Curry added. “Personally, I think the role of natural climate variability has been substantially underestimated in our interpretation of recent climate change.”

This is not to say that man is not contributing to climate change, It does say that 1) the science is not settled, 2) global warming advocates continue to ignore science that is not compatible with their views, and 3) we are not going to have an adult conversation until ALL scientific data and realities are factored into to any future actions.

2) Let’s look at some more science and research that Al Gore types probably do not want us to see. A recent research paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that climate change models hyped by global warming/climate change advocates are infested with “flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis.” Furthermore, these assessment models: “can be misleading and are inappropriate as guides for policy,” argued economist Robert Pindyck. Nonetheless, the government has continued to use them to impose burdensome regulations that negatively affect the economy. 

These models forecast global weather patterns will become more extreme over time with global warming causing more hurricanes and droughts. But this analysis shows that extreme weather is not going to get worse because of global warming, meaning the move to curb global warming by punishing power plants is not going to solve a fictitious problem but severely increase energy costs and hurt economic growth.

These findings were summarized by economist Robert Murphy in an interview with the Daily Caller: “The estimates [from the climate models] keep bouncing around all over the place, and the estimates are driven by very controversial parameter choices, not objective assessments given by physicists and climatologists. In any event, the public should realize just how ‘unsettled’ the economic side of the carbon debate is.”

Now an economist is not trained to do climate science. But an economist is trained to build, use, and assess statistical models and this economic entity found those climate models, the models that global warming advocates base their hysteria on, to be faulty and near useless.

3) One big component of global warming advocates view of the world is that the ice caps are melting because of man made global warming and that eventually, if enough of the ice caps melt, there will be devastating flooding of coastal regions around the world. In fact, Al Gore predicted that there was a reasonably good chance that the entire North Pole ice cap could melt by the year 2014, another forecast that failed miserably.

Additionally, the UK’s Guardian newspaper recently reported that fifty scientists held a meeting in Tasmania to brainstorm ideas on how to better predict the size of the Antarctic ice cap. They held the meeting since there has been such a build up in the size of the ice cap, researchers cannot get close to the South Pole to do their own direct measurements. The Guardian reported that in 2014 ships “couldn’t get anywhere near” the Australian Antarctic Division’s research site on Antarctica. 

In addition, the Russian research vessel Akademik Shokalskiy got stuck in ice on Christmas Eve, 2013 on its way to show how global warming was impacting Antarctica. After being stuck on the ice for a week , an Australian icebreaker was sent to rescue them….and then it became temporarily stuck itself in the expanding Antarctic ice pack.

This past April, the Antarctic sea ice reached record levels for the month, 116,000 square miles higher than the previous record set in 2014.

So in summary, the one thing we definitely learned to today is the “science is NOT settled.” Whether it is a past member of the global warming center at the U.N. speaking out against the U.N.’s flawed position or economists debunking forecast models or the reality of growing ice caps that are at odds with the forecast models predictions, the science is not settled. And it is okay and actually quite prudent to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science….despite what Al Gore says.

Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:

www.loathemygovernment.com

It is also available online at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Please pass our message of freedom onward. Let your friends and family know about our websites and blogs, ask your library to carry the book, and respect freedom for both yourselves and others everyday.

Please visit the following sites for freedom:

Term Limits Now: http://www.howmuchworsecoulditget.com
http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.bankruptingamerica.org
http://www.conventionofstates.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w

October, 2014 I am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science, Part 2: More Scientists Become Doubters And Al Gore's Worst Nightmares

On a periodic basis, we revisit a continuing theme in this blog, “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.” Several years ago we started investigating the viability of this position for a number of reasons:

• It did not appear that global warming advocates were looking at all of the available global warming science, realities, and trends, just those select pieces of information that supported their position.
• There seemed to be a growing sense of doubt among scientists about whether or not global warming was actually a real thing.
• We were getting tired of Al Gore and others of his ilk who constantly were calling those that were undecided about global warming a whole litany of slurs including racists, homophobes, and other insulting terms.

After researching and writing about dozens of global warming information sources, we have proven over and over that it is perfectly logical to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science:

• Realities show that global warming actually stopped about 18 years ago, causing global warming advocates to rebrand their position as “climate change” since “global warming” was no longer an emerging reality.
•  Turns out the major global warming forecast models all turned out to be grossly inaccurate in predicting future climate and warming trends, throwing into doubt whether any man made global warming or climate change was actually happening.
• Major and reputable scientists and science organizations (e.g. the renowned CERN Institute) were either originally determining that man made global warming and climate control never existed or changing their position to become doubters of what they may have original believed about global warming.
• Important and prominent scientists around the world were caught manipulating climate data to verify their false claims and forecast models or were outed for at least contemplating changing real world data to match their ill performing analyses and forecasting models.

Previous exposes’ of global warming and climate change theories by using real world numbers, scientific experiments, and the simple act of observing can be accessed in this blog by typing “I am a global warming doubter” in the search box above. At that point, you will be provided many previous posts from this blog including dozens and dozens of information sources that more and more point to a repudiation of Al Gore and others, man made global warming, and man made climate change.

The latest proof that you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in sciences is discussed below:

1) Patrick Michaels is the director of the Cato Institute's Center for the Study of Science. He has a doctorate in ecological climatology so I guess you could consider him a scientist. Michaels spent three decades as a research professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia and was a contributing editor to the United Nations' Second Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. 

In a recent interview he stated, as a scientist: "It has to be admitted eventually that too much warming was forecast too fast. This just has to happen. You can't go on and on and on. If the surface temperature resumed the warming rate that we observed from, say 1977 through 1998, we would still go close to a quarter of a century without significant net warming because there's such a long flat period built into the record now." 

“Without significant net warming.“ Sounds like maybe Al Gore and his limited set of scientists missed the boat on the global warming hysteria. Michaels went on within the interview to highlight the findings from the University of Illinois' Polar Ice Research Center. Those scientists found that the Antarctic ice cap "is at its highest extent measured by the current microwave satellite sounding system" since 1978: “And if you take a close look at the Arctic data, it appears the decline [in polar ice] stopped around 2005/2006, which means we've almost had 10 years without any net loss in Arctic ice." 

2) Talk about politicians being out of touch with what is important to Americans. A opinion survey earlier this year found that Americans ranked global warming 19th out of twenty issues that concerned them. Seems Americans have a lot more worries on their plate that rank far above the potential and weakening aspect of global warming.

Compare that reality to Secretary of State John Kerry's recent claim that climate change is "the biggest challenge of all that we face right now." Given all that we have discussed over the years relative to the science, realities, and numbers of climate and climate research, that increasingly show little if any relationship between mankind’s activities and global warming/climate change, how out of touch is Kerry and his boss in the White House relative to the needs of Americans?

3) Even some people who worked within the Obama administration are finally seeing the fallacy of Al Gore’s paranoia and ranting. Dr. Steven Koonin is a former high-ranking Obama administration official who served at the Energy Department as President Obama’s undersecretary for science in the Energy Department. He is currently the director of the Center for Urban Science and Progress at New York University. 

He recently stated that climate science and the implications of global warming are not "settled," going on to say that such claims are "misguided" and actually stifle debate on the matter. He laid out his position in a recent Wall Street Journal article.

Koonin proposed that “group think” among climate experts has been inhibiting "the scientific and policy discussions that we need to have about our climate future: "We often hear that there is a 'scientific consensus' about climate change, But as far as the computer models go, there isn't a useful consensus at the level of detail relevant to assessing human influences." 

Koonin claimed in the article that his extensive background as a computational physicist, including a 40-year career of scientific research and management, has given him an up-close knowledge of climate science: "Detailed technical discussions during the past year with leading climate scientists have given me an even better sense of what we know, and don't know, about climate." 

He concludes that whether the climate is changing is not disputed, as "the climate has always changed and always will." But for him, the primary unanswered question is how the climate will change under both natural and man-made influences, that is the only way to answer how mankind should react. He does believe, though in the picture of Mother Nature, "they [humans] are physically small in relation to the climate system as a whole," with additions to carbon dioxide to "directly shift the atmosphere's natural greenhouse effect by only 1% to 2%"no different, and no more certain" than it was 30 years ago. 

For more details on this global warming doubter’s science based views and further discussion on the ever growing ice caps, go to:

Newsmax.com/Newsfront/climate-change-science/2014/09/21/id/595969/#ixzz3H18C7j4W

4) Let’s finish today with some realities and facts as laid out in late October in the following NewsMax article:

http://www.Newsmax.com/MKTNews/global-warming-hoax-facts/2014/10/17/id/601458/#ixzz3H3mAVNOZ :

• Even though global warming stopped about 18 years ago, the Federal government still spends $22 billion a year to fight the global warming crisis. This is twice as much as it spends futilely trying to protect our southern border. (twice as much as it spends protecting our border). 
•  According to Forbes columnist Larry Bell, , the ripple effect of global warming initiatives actually costs Americans $1.75 trillion every year. This comes out to over $15,000 a year for every U.S. household, $15,000 that cannot be spent productively to grow the economy or provide more personal satisfaction and freedom for every American.
• The $1.75 trillion is about four times larger than this year’s Federal budget deficit.
• This spending nonsense has been going on even though NASA’s own data, via Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), shows that the world has warmed a mere .36 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 35 years (they started measuring the data in 1979), with no warming in the past 18 years or so.
• The global warming thesis weakens further when you consider that the North Polar ice cap is increasing in size, as measured by satellite images from NASA which actually reflect an increase of 43% to 63%.
• Compare this reality to the historical delusion from Al Gore who boldly, and grossly incorrectly predicted: “The North Polar ice cap is falling off a cliff. It could be completely gone in summer in as little as seven years. Seven years from now.”
• Even though the President of the United States clearly stated on twitter on May 16, 2014 that, “97% of scientists agree: climate change is real, man-made and dangerous,” the Wall Street Journal  found that, “The assertion that 97% of scientists believe that climate change is a man-made, urgent problem is a fiction.” and Forbes headlined an article with the title “Global Warming Alarmists Caught Doctoring ’97% Consensus’ Claims.”
• Claude Allegre,the founding father of the man-made global warming ethos, recently renounced his position that man has caused warming. 
• The NewsMax article also asserts that proof is emerging that Al Gore and even President Obama have financially benefited from fueling the global warming hysteria.

That will do it for this month’s review of the theme, “I am a global warming doubter and a believer in science.” As always when we finish these updates, I would like to tell Al Gore and his followers to shut up and sit down so that we can have an adult conversation on climate matters. 

No more name calling, no more slurs. Just adult conversation. Because the facts and realities are starting to pile up that show the doubters are right, the Al Gores are wrong. And that must really be an inconvenient truth for him.

Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:

www.loathemygovernment.com

It is also available online at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Please pass our message of freedom onward. Let your friends and family know about our websites and blogs, ask your library to carry the book, and respect freedom for both yourselves and others everyday.

Please visit the following sites for freedom:

Term Limits Now: http://www.howmuchworsecoulditget.com
http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.robertringer.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w

July, 2014 - Why I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science, Part 1

We are going to spend a few days going over a continuing theme in this blog, “I am a global warming doubter and a believer in science.” The justification for this series was the fact that I just got fed up being yelled at and called a whole slew of not nice names by people like Al Gore simply because I choose to look at the entire spectrum of global warming, and its rebranded them of climate change, rather than the rantings and ravings of people like Gore that look only at the science that supports their viewpoint and not at all science, both pro and con.

Rather than try to have an adult conversation, people like Al Gore have called us doubters racists, homophobes, science illiterates, etc. We maintain that if you look at ALL of the climate science, you will see the fallacy and emptiness of Gore-like viewpoints and rantings. To do anything else would not be scientific, it would be scientific heresy.

To view the dozens of posts we have done in the past where we quote famous and credible scientists, cite credible and independent reports, and use logic to show that the global warming scare and climate change mania is probably just that, scare tactics and mania, put the following phrase, “I am a global warming doubter” in the search box above to get a complete list of previous related posts. If you are an Al Gore fan, a dare you to read all of the science put forth in these posts before you commence with the name calling again.

Let’s see what new science evidence has come about since our last update to the theme, "I am a global warming doubter and a believer in science."

1) Consider some remarks that the president has recently spouted about global warming an climate change that we may have previously discussed and debunked:

• “The 12 warmest years in recorded history have all come in the last 15 years.” Rebuttal: We have shown several scientifically credible charts in previous posts that show the earth has experienced far warmer periods than what has occurred in the past 15 years. 

• “Last year, temperatures in some areas of the ocean reached record highs, and ice in the Arctic shrank to its smallest size on record -- faster than most models had predicted it would.” Rebuttal: In fact, the ice caps at both poles has been growing over the past few years, not shrinking. Al Gore actually predicted that by earlier this year the entire North Pole could be melted. The exact opposite happened, both ice caps are growing in size and coverage. The following graph shows that in late June, 2014, the Antarctic ice cap attained its largest coverage EVER: 

• “These are facts.” Rebuttal: His facts are not facts, as recorded by scientists both inside and out side of government.
• “Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires, and crippling drought, and more powerful storms.” Rebuttal: It is not overwhelming that mankind is causing global warming. We have cited thousands of scientists that disagree with Obama’s and Gore’s position on this issue, including scientific work done at the CERN Institute, the premier science lab in the history of mankind. Later this week we will also shown statistical proof that his assertion on raging fires, crippling drought, and more powerful storms is not supported by facts and reality.
• “But in the late 1950s, the National Weather Service began measuring the levels of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, with the worry that rising levels might someday disrupt the fragile balance that makes our planet so hospitable. And what they’ve found, year after year, is that the levels of carbon pollution in our atmosphere have increased dramatically.” Rebuttal: which proves nothing, correlation is not causation. This is especially true when you realize that the average global temperature has remained remarkably constant over the past 18 years despite more carbon building up.
• "We don't have time for a meeting of the flat-Earth society. Sticking your head in the sand might make you feel safer, but it's not going to protect you from the coming storm." Rebuttal: That’s right, use the Gore tactic of insults rather than science. Call those in believe in science flat earth adherents when you run out of defendable positions for your view.
• "The overwhelming judgment of science, of chemistry, of physics, and millions of measurements" put "to rest" questions about pollution affecting the environment. Rebuttal: Of course pollution affects the environment. That does not prove that mankind is causing global warming and climate change.
• "The planet is warming. Human activity is contributing to it." Rebuttal: The planet has not warmed in 18 years. In fact, some credible scientists are now predicting a coming Ice Age, much like what has happened throughout the entire history of the earth, climate changes and temperatures change with or without the presence of mankind. See the following chart as proof of our assertion:

Unbelievable that a President would not know facts and reality or outright lie, isn’t it? Oh, wait, didn’t he also do the same thing relative to Obama Care when he stated as “fact” that:

• If you like your current doctor, you can keep your current doctor under Obama Care, which turned out not to be true.
• If you like your current hospital, you can keep your current hospital under Obama Care, which turned out not to be true.
• Obama Care would reduce the typical American household’s annual health care costs by about $2,500 which turned out to be false.
• Obama Care would make health insurance more affordable and health care better, both of which turned out to be false.
• The Obama Care online exchanges would be as simple as going on line to buy and airline ticket or do another hassle free online purchase, which definitely turned out to be false.

Given this President’s tendency to at best play fast and loose with “facts,” do not be taken in on his global warming “facts” without doing what we have been doing over the past few year: search for real facts and do not settle for politicians’ facts. As the Obama Care deceit illustrates so well, politicians’ “facts” are seldom reality.

That will do it for today, a good start to a series of new looks at science that confirm if you are a global warming doubter and a believer in science, and not political hype, you are closing in on understanding what is really going on with the earth’s climate.

Our book, "Love My Country, Loathe My Government - Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom And Destroying The American Political Class" is now available at:

www.loathemygovernment.com

It is also available online at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. Please pass our message of freedom onward. Let your friends and family know about our websites and blogs, ask your library to carry the book, and respect freedom for both yourselves and others everyday.

Please visit the following sites for freedom:

Term Limits Now: http://www.howmuchworsecoulditget.com
http://www.reason.com
http://www.cato.org
http://www.robertringer.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08j0sYUOb5w