Sunday, June 21, 2015

June, 2015, Part 1, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science: Using Science and Scientisits To Prove Politcian Al Gore Is Wrong

Every month we have enough material to return to a continuing theme in this blog, namely that “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.” This became of interest because of people like Al Gore who fanatically and verbosely claimed that you had to be an idiot to not believe in manmade global warming. It has been my life belief that anyone that is that loud and that obnoxious is hiding something, that rather than argue facts and reality it is better to beat down and insult anyone who disagrees.

As we have dove into the whole issue of manmade global warming, or its new rebranded title of climate change, we found that Al Gore and people like him were guilty of a number of things:
  • Ignoring science and realities that did not support their opinions and positions.
  • Rather than have an adult conversation about climate, these types of advocates like Gore sank to the level of insulting those who dared look at ALL science by calling them a variety of names including racists, homophobes, terrorists, flat earth believers, and other slanderous names.
  • Continuing to insist that politicians step up their intrusions into our lives with higher taxes, more regulations, and more control on our freedoms and standards of living based on a shaky theory at best.
To see the past posts and the multitude of evidence that we have compiled that showed it is perfectly okay to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, enter the phrase "global warming doubter” in the search box above or go through the monthly historical post listed on the right side of this page.

Thus, let’s see the latest facts and science that prove you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, regardless of what Al Gore proclaims.

1) The Federal government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developed the U.S. Climate Reference Network to provide high quality climate data. The system consists of 114 stations across the U.S.

Data collected from this system shows that the U.S. has actually experienced a slight COOLING trend over the past ten years, the complete opposite of global cooling. That’s right, despite President Obama’s fixation on global warming and climate change, his own government functions show that cooling is going on and not the warming that Al Gore types of been screaming about for years.

And these measurements appear to be very solid from a data collection and science perspective. The system's climate stations use three independent measurements of temperature and precipitation to provide “continuity of record and maintenance of well-calibrated and highly accurate observations,” as state on the NOAA website. “The stations are placed in pristine environments expected to be free of development for many decades.” In essence, NOAA chose locations so they don’t need to be adjusted for “biases” in the temperature record.

Below is the data and the slightly cooling trend that was measured:

Source: NOAA USCRN compiled by Anthony Watts

"Clearly, a ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ exists in this most pristine climate data,” said Anthony Watts, a veteran meteorologist and publisher of the science blog Watts Up With That. “In fact, a very slight cooling trend appears.”

This science conclusively measures a cooling period of at least ten years. That reality shows how wrong all global warming forecast models were since none of them predicted any cooling at all. To people like Al Gore, this destroys their theories of global warming but I guess it is too much for them to even consider the possibility that they were wrong, their theories have been upset by reality, and their forecasting models are invalid.

2) Dr. Phillip Lloyd, a South African based physicist and climate researcher, in other words a scientist, researched ice core-based temperature data going back about 8,000 years. He is a former lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC), the main international organization hyping and pushing the theory of manmade global warming and climate change. His research objective was to gain insights on the magnitude of global temperature changes over the past century or so.

His research found was the standard deviation of the temperature measurements over the last 8,000 years was about 0.98 degrees Celsius– higher than the .85 degrees climate scientists say the world has warmed over the last century: “This suggests that while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major portion was due to natural variations,” Lloyd wrote in his study.

How about that? Scientific measurements by a true scientist and former leader of the global warming movement finds that natural changes are the likely causes of natural temperature variations, not manmade influences. His findings are important since the IPCC claims there’s been 0.85 degrees Celsius of warming since the late 1800s. But the IPCC concluded that most of this warming is due to human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use. The IPCC claims that “more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010” have been caused by human activity.

But from a science and statistical perspective, as measured by Lloyd’s research, history shows that .85 degrees is well within the statistical range of variation. Thus, if his research is continued to prove valid, the IPCC may have to revise how much warming it attributes to mankind activities. 

Regardless, the IPCC’s estimate of man-made and natural warming (0.85 degrees) is still below the standard deviation for the last 8,000 years, according to Lloyd’s results. This means that warming is not very significant within the context of the Earth’s recent climate history.

Dr. Judith Curry, a climate scientist at Georgia Tech, agrees with the approach Lloyd used in order to measure the natural occurring changes to the climate: “The key challenge in understanding climate change is to assess the natural climate variability. The magnitude of natural climate variability over the past 1000 years and even the past 100 years is hotly debated. Personally, I think the role of natural climate variability has been substantially underestimated in our interpretation of recent climate change.”

This new data and research is consistent with other research efforts we have previously discussed in this blog, namely that average global temperatures, as measured by government satellites, have been virtually flat for more than 18 years.

That will do it for today. Actual scientists proving that politician Al Gore is likely wrong about science. Actual scientific data proving that politician Al Gore is likely wrong. Actual scientists and scientific data proving again that it is perfectly reasonable to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science. More tomorrow. 

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