Wednesday, June 24, 2015

June, 2015, Part 4, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science: The Outright Scare Tactics and Deceptions Of The Political Class

Every month we have enough material to return to a continuing theme in this blog, namely that “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.” This became of interest because of people like Al Gore who fanatically and verbosely claimed that you had to be an idiot to not believe in manmade global warming. It has been my life belief that anyone that is that loud and that obnoxious is hiding something, that rather than argue facts and reality it is better to beat down and insult anyone who disagrees.

As we have dove into the whole issue of manmade global warming, or its new rebranded title of climate change, we found that Al Gore and people like him were guilty of a number of things:
  • Ignoring science and realities that did not support their opinions and positions.
  • Rather than have an adult conversation about climate, these types of advocates like Gore sank to the level of insulting those who dared look at ALL science by calling them a variety of names including racists, homophobes, terrorists, flat earth believers, and other slanderous names.
  • Continuing to insist that politicians step up their intrusions into our lives with higher taxes, more regulations, and more control on our freedoms and standards of living based on a shaky theory at best.
To see the past posts and the multitude of evidence that we have compiled that showed it is perfectly okay to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, enter the phrase "global warming doubter” in the search box above or go through the monthly post lists on the right side of this page.

Today will conclude this month’s update on this series on global warming and science. Our focus today will be to separate factual reality from political hype. The most recent political hype came from the President who claimed that failure to address the potential problems he sees in man made global warming and climate change will result in more severe weather in the years to come.

But is that true or is it just another political lie/deception,self serving statement? Lord knows that this President is not above making these types of baseless assertions and promises:
  • If you like your current doctor you can keep your current doctor under Obama Care. Not.
  • If you like your current insurance policy you can keep your current insurance policy under Obama Care. Not. 
  • American families will see up to a $2,500 reduction in their annual health insurance premiums under Obama Care. Not.
  • This administration will reduce the annual budget deficit by half within four years. Not.
  • This administration will be every pending piece of legislation up on the Internet for everyone to comment on it before it is signed. Not.
  • This will be the most transparent administration ever. Not.
Let’s stop here but you get the idea. Lie to me enough and soon I will assume that everything you say is a say or baseless. 

And in the manmade global warming/climate change arena it appears that this tendency of this President is also present. Yesterday, we discussed the reality that a major hurricane has not hit the U.S.mainland for the past ten years. Given that global warming advocates have been advocating for decades that global warming was going to result in horrific weather impacts, what happened hurricane wise for the past decade? Was the President not aware that this was a reality when he recently promised that weather was going to get worse because of manmade climate change?

But are hurricanes just outliers in his more severe weather forecast and other weather occurrences are getting worse? Well, let’s check out data and reality and see:

Wild Fires

Research by James Taylor, writing for Forbes magazine, found that “2013 was one of the quietest wildfire years in U.S. history.” If global warming/climate change was such a bad thing from a weather perspective, one could expect to see a growing trend of wildfires as severe weather, droughts, etc. resulting in more wildfires.

But according to a government agency, the National Interagency Fire Center, an entity that tracks the number of forest fires every year and has been doing so since 1960, well before global warming theory took hold: 
  • The year 2013 had the fewest forest fires since data tracking began.
  • From 1962 through 1982, there were at least 100,000 forest fires tracked every one of those years. But since 1982 there has not been a single year where forest fires totalled above 100,000.
  • Fifty years prior, in 1964, forest fires totalled three times as many vs. 2014 and burned up twice as many acres.
  • Twenty years ago, in 1994, there were 79,000 forest fires vs. 63,000 in 2014.
But this is not the only source of real data that shows forest fires, and the severe weather that might affect them, is down on a historical basis despite global warming/climate change:
  • According to the Weather Underground, the two largest forest fires in American history occurred in the late 19th and early 290th centuries.
  • The first of these forest fires occurred in Wisconsin 1871 and burned 3.8 million acres and killed 1,500 people.
  • The second worse forest fire hit Idaho and Montana in 1910 and destroyed 3 million acres and killed 87 people.
  • The 47,579 forest fires in 2013 destroyed only 4.3 million acres, an average of 90.79 acres per fire.
Furthermore, research in 2009 analysis by R.M. Beaty and A.H. Taylor researched charcoal records in northern California to study wildfires over thousands of years. They concluded that “current fire episode frequency is at one of its lowest points in at least the last 14,000 years.” And certainly manmade global warming and climate change was not a topic of concern or a reality 14,000 years ago.


So, hurricane severity is down significantly, forest fires are down significantly despite the dire claims of this President and the global warming advocates. What about droughts, can the President go 0 for 3 when trying to scare us about weather conditions worsening as a result of global warming/climate change?

Roger Pielke Jr. is an environmental studies professor at the University of Colorado Boulder in Colorado. On may 22, 2015 he a graph on his blog that showed a slight DECREASE in global droughts since 1982, a time period of extensive worries about global warming and weather. His data is based on a 2013 publication in the magazine Nature which tracked “historical drought severity data.”
Fraction of the Globe in Drought: 1982-2012

The graph above shows the proportion of the planet in drought, by intensity, 1982-2012. The graph comes from a paper in a new Nature publication called Scientific Data and is open access. 

But what about the devastating drought currently underway in California you say? This past January, the San Jose Mercury News reported that “studies of tree rings, sediment and other natural evidence” have shown historiically “severe megadroughts [that] make the Dust Bowl of the 1930s look tame.” In fact, Scott Stine, an environmental studies professor at California State University, East Bay, studied tree ring data and found that while 2013 was a very dry year, this past century “has been among the wettest of the last 7,000 years.”

Additionally, researchers led by J.A. Kleppe found concluded in 2011 that “dry conditions have occurred regularly, in cyclical fashion, ‘every 650-1150 years,” suggesting “there is nothing unusual, unnatural, or unprecedented about the nature of [Californian] drought.”

So, today we learned that the President continues to make stuff up to fulfill his political intentions and views as it pertains to severe weather growing in intensity because of climate change (it isn’t) as hurricanes, droughts, and forest fires are still within historic measures, if not less frequent. When politicians make up realities, when scientists adjust or even discuss adjusting raw data to fit preconceived theories,and when the government itself manipulates historical data for political ends, it helps destroy any credibility manmade global warming/climate control advocates have. Which makes our position, “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science” even stronger, regardless of what Al Gore screams.

That will do it for this month and this topic. But I am pretty sure we will be back next month with more data manipulations, more deceptions, and more science and realities that dispel the global warming myth.

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