Another Day, Another Obama Baseless Claim?

President Obama was recently interviewed on MSNBC and made the claim that there is less violence in the world today than 30-40 years ago and we should be thankful for that “fact”: “I remind people that, you know, there actually is probably less war and less violence around the world today than there might have been 30, 40 years ago. It doesn’t make it any less painful but things can get better.” As with most Obama claims, one’s ears should go up and one's truth detector alarm should sound, given his history of false claims in the past that include, but are not restricted to, the following:

• If you like your current doctors/hospitals/drug plans/insurance policies you can keep them. Not the case.
• He was going to operate the most transparent Presidential administration ever. Not the case.
• He was going to cut the annual Federal government deficit in half by the end of his first term. Not the case.
• He was going to reduce the average American’s annual health insurance cost by up to $2,500 a year. Not the case.
• He was going to post every piece of legislation passed by Congress on the Internet for review before signing it. Not the case.
• He was going to close the prison at Guantanamo Bay. Not the case.
• He was going to uphold the laws of the land and the Constitution. Not the case.

We could go on but you get the idea: any claims by this President have to now assumed to be false until proven true. It is just his track record.

So let’s take a casual look back through time and see if the world is less violent that it was 30 - 40 years ago as he claims. Let’s assume 35 years ago is our baseline and that would put us around the year 1980:

1) Middle East

• Back in 1980, there was fighting going on in the Middle East but that was mostly between Iran and Iraq and did not really concern us or endanger us. The fighting was confined to the border of the two countries with little chance of spilling over to other geographic areas.
• Today there is fighting all over the Middle East with ISIS Sunnis fighting Shiites and Kurds in northern Iraq and eastern Syria, Yemen is now a lawless country without a functioning government with at least three terrorists groups fighting amongst themselves inside the country which is about to be invaded by Saudi Arabia.
• ISIS is not content to stay in their current geographic areas, declaring they will spread their hatred and repression far beyond their current geographic area, killing or converting all non-Muslims in their path, having demonstrated those intentions a number of times already with heinous murders of Christians and others.
• U.S. military warships are on alert in the Persian Gulf with the potential of engaging Iranian ships taking arms to their allies in Yemen. This could possibly ignite a hot war between the United States and Iran in their backyard with the potential of devastating the world’s oil supply line.
• In the mean time, high ranking nut case Iranian government officials continue to claim “Death to America” while simultaneously developing a nuclear weapons capability. 

So 1980 vs. 2015: got to give the violence winner to 2015 with the widespread warfare, nuclear arms presence, and desire to subjugate the rest of the world to Islamic extremism putting 2015 over the top.

2) Europe

• Back in 1980, Europe was divided by the Iron Curtain with the possibility that a hot war could break out at any time with the U.S. led western Europe facing off against Russia led eastern Europe.
• Today, Russia has no military allies anywhere in Europe but that has not stopped it from invading and annexing large parts of the Ukraine, resulting in financial and other sanctions against Russia by much of Europe and the U.S.
• In addition, today Russia  is in a military modernization frenzy, developing new weapons systems and upgrading its military in preparation for a potential conventional war around its borders if it feels threatened by the U.S., NATO, or other factors.

1980 vs. 2015: close call but I have to go with 2015 since the potential for violence and war existed in 1980, it never happened. In 2015, it did happen in Crimea and eastern Ukraine with the potential to grow wider.

3) Nuclear Weapons

• In 1980, we were still in the midst of the Cold War with the constant potential of the nuclear armed nations being capable of wiping out the human race with one mistake or misunderstanding. 
• However, 1) in 1980, we were already three decades into the Cold War and nothing had happened, making the possibility that it would suddenly get nasty very small and 2) the leaders of nuclear nations were relatively rational people that did not want to get themselves killed, resulting in the Mutually Agreed Destruction situation. 
• In 2015, we have more nations that have nuclear weapons and those nations are not the most stable or led by the most leaders: Pakistan, North Korea, and soon to be Iran.
• Both Iran and North Korea are working on long range intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities that can deliver those nuclear weapons far beyond the local geography,with the potential of reaching the U.S., something they had absolutely no possibility of doing so in 1980.
• And the 1980 nuclear leaders valued their own lives and would not endanger those lives while in 2015 there is the distinct possibility that nuclear leaders today would welcome their own death if they could martyr themselves it he destruction of infidels, making the potential of nuclear weapon use much higher.

1980 vs. 2015: 2015 wins relative to nuclear weapons.

4) Terrorism

• In 1980, there were various terrorism groups around the world including the Irish Republican Army, the Red Brigade in Europe, and others. 
• However, for the most part, those groups were independent of each other and more concerned about local acts of terror and politics and not intent on attacking the United States, its people, or its interest.
• Today’s major terror groups are much more tightly linked across the world, from the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan to ISIS in Iraq and Syria to Iran to Muslims in Chechnya, China, and Indonesia, under the common theme of spreading the world of violent jihad and Islamic terrorism.
• Even worse, very few Americans in 1980 were interested in joining faraway terror groups and bringing that terror back to the U.S. while today every few weeks we seem to be seeing the FBI and police breaking up potential terror attacks by American citizens linking into word wide Islamic jihad streams.

1980 vs. 2015: no contest, 2015 is far more violent than 1980 relative to the reality and threat of terrorism.

5) Criminal Violence

The following graph from the FBI shows that life in the U.S. was more violent in 1980 than today:



Okay, the above analysis is not a definitive, quantitative analysis of Obama’s claim. We did not cover the Great Britain short war with Argentina over the Falkland Islands. But that was a localized and short term wear involving only two countries far from the U.S. border. We did not talk about the U.S. Embassy invasion in Iran and hostages that were taken during the Iranian revolution. But those Iranian leaders then did not have missile or nuclear weapon technology like they have today.

Given the above discussion, I would vote that the Obama statement on violence today vs. 30 - 40 years ago is just another falsehood and deception. Russia is still causing problems like they did 35 years ago, terror groups were around in both eras but today’s are more violent, more focused, and more widespread, nuclear weapons are more widespread and in the hands of much more unreliable characters, and the Middle East is the scene of much more violence and much more organized and deadly terrorism organizations (e.g. Hamas, Hezbollah, etc.), all of which is offset by less violent crime rates in the U.S.

Another day, another claim out of reality from the Obama Presidency. No surprise there.

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