Thursday, November 19, 2015

November, 2015, Part 4, By The Numbers: The Economy Stinks and These Federal Reserve Charts Prove It (Continued)

This is the fourth post among a few days worth of discussion of “by the numbers.” We do this theme occasionally where we look at the reality of the numbers in the world and not the lies, deceptions, and spin of the American political class. I used to work for a boss whose favorite quote was: “There is nothing more devastating to an opinion than the correct number.” By looking at the statistics, trends, and numbers in our world we can cut through the politicians’ smoke screen to truly understand what is going on and hopefully, remedy the issues of the day.

The numbers we will look at this week will often have a common thread running almost through all of them: the views, positions, and opinions of the majority of Americans are often the exact opposite of the views and related actions that our politicians own. Since we are supposed to be living in a representative government system one would hope that the laws, rules, and government functions that our politicians oversee reflect the thinking, hopes, and views of the American citizenry.

As the numbers will usually show, that is nowhere close to reality, which I think reflects two underlying negative trends:
  1. American politicians vote and act for their own personal interests first, Americans’ interests and well being being of secondary consideration. If a politician’s actions can get them more votes or more campaign cash for their perpetual reelection campaigns, than that is their priority, usually not the priorities of their constituents.
  2. Second, I personally believe that today’s American politicians take care of their special interest friends and financiers first and foremost, and the interests of those special interest friends (e.g.unions, corporations, lobbyists, etc.) are usually not in alignment with what the majority of Americans have as their priorities.
Keep these two possibilities in mind as we go “by the numbers” for this week and try to show the major disconnect between what Americans want and what politicians are doing:

Yesterday, we reviewed the latest monthly economic statistics from the Federal government. Although there were a few glimmers of economic hope, for the most part those glimmers are still being overwhelmed by the overall economic situation:
  • The labor participation rate is still bouncing around at the same low levels not seen for the past four decades. 
  • Almost 14 million Americans are either unemployed or are working at part time jobs even though they would prefer full time jobs. 
  • Minority unemployment rates are still much higher than the total national unemployment rate. 
  • Over 45 million Americans are still receiving Federal food assistance every month.
These are the short term economic results and numbers. They are not good. But the Daily Caller recently published some long term trend data from the Federal Reserve Board and guess what: the long term economic results and numbers are just as bad. 

Yesterday, we looked at five of the nine long term trend charts that the Federal Reserve recently published. Today, we will look at the final four charts but the results, numbers, and conclusions are still the same: Washington politicians probably could not have screwed things up worse if they had tried to.

6) As we discussed yesterday, and many times previoulsy, the number of people and the amount of taxpayer wealth spent on food assistance every month, while down slightly, is still more than double higher than what it was prior to the recession and six years AFTER the recession ended (click on chart for a larger view):

7) Student debt is rapidly approaching a whopping $1 TRILLION, is about nine times higher than what it was prior to the recession and has skyrocketed since the recession ended. And since a lot of this debt is guaranteed and backed by the Federal government, there is a good chance that American taxpayers are going to get caught with this bad debt and investment at some point in time.

8) Twenty five years ago, the Democrats in Congress and the White House decided it was worth risking trillions of dollars via taxpayer backed loans to credit risky home owners in order to increase the homeownership level of American families. Twenty five years later, and hundreds of billions of dollars spent to bail out Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other financial institutions, the home ownership rates for American families is actually lower than where it was back then. As with the other Fed measurements, the rate of homeownership decline has accelerated AFTER the recession ended.

9) And finally, this last Fed chart shows that not only have wages stagnated during the Obama years but American median family income is less than it was was in 1998. While bouncing back somewhat since the recession ended, the median is still below where it was prior to the recession and lately its improvement trend has been flattening out.



That will do it for today. But the results and conclusions from the nine Federal Reserve charts we have reviewed over the past two days charts definitely prove three things: the Obama administration, the current Congressional members, and Federal bureaucrats have saddled us with tremendous amounts of debt, stagnant wages, and tepid job creation. Seems you could not do a worse job managing the economy if you were trying.
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