Thursday, January 28, 2016

January, 2016, Part 3, I Am A Global Warming Doubter and A Believer In Science: The States Rebel, The Feds Manipulate Data, Bill Nye Is Not A Climate Scientist and More

Every month we have enough material to return to a continuing theme in this blog, namely that “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.” This became of interest because of people like Al Gore who fanatically and verbosely claimed that you had to be an idiot to not believe in manmade global warming. It has been my life belief that anyone that is that loud and that obnoxious is hiding something, that rather than argue facts and reality it is better to beat down and insult anyone who disagrees.As we have dove into the whole issue of manmade global warming, or its new rebranded title of climate change, we found that Al Gore and people like him were guilty of a number of things:
  • Ignoring science and realities that did not support their opinions and positions.
  • Rather than have an adult conversation about climate, these types of advocates like Gore sank to the level of insulting those who dared look at ALL science by calling them a variety of names including racists, homophobes, terrorists, flat earth believers, and other slanderous names.
  • Continuing to insist that politicians step up their intrusions into our lives with higher taxes, more regulations, and more control on our freedoms and standards of living based on a shaky theory at best.
To see the past posts and the multitude of evidence that we have compiled that showed it is perfectly okay to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, enter the phrase "global warming doubter” in the search box above or go through the monthly historical post listed on the right side of this page.
Thus, let’s see the latest facts and science that prove you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, regardless of what Al Gore proclaims:1) Patrick Michaels and Chip Knappenberger are climate scientists at the libertarian Cato Institute. In late 2015, they released a paper covering their climate research that examined the difference between actual, observed, measured global surface temperatures since 1950 and compared the actual realities to what over a hundred well known climate forecasting models predicted those temperatures would be in the future. The common and basic assumption in all of these forecast models was that as mankind threw more and more carbon into the atmosphere, the earth’s temperatures would rise. Their results should not be surprising to those of us who are global warming doubters and believers in science: for the past six decades, those models have constantly and grossly overestimated what the temperature would be in the future and thus, overstating how much global warming was going on. In their own words: “Everyone by now is familiar with the ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ in the rate of global warming that has taken place over the past 20 years or so, but few realize is that the observed warming rate has been beneath the model mean expectation for periods extending back to the mid-20th century—60+ years… During all periods from 10 years (2006-2015) to 65 (1951-2015) years in length, the observed temperature trend lies in the lower half of the collection of climate model simulations and for several periods it lies very close (or even below) the 2.5th percentile of all the model runs.”Michaels and Knappenberger went beyond their surface temperature analysis and decided to look at satellite and weather balloon data to see if the results above the surface were any different. Not surprisingly, the result is the same: the climate models predicted way more warming than actually occurred in the atmosphere as they did for surface temperatures. Michaels and Knappenberger summed up their findings: “This is a devastating indictment of climate model performance. ...For periods of time longer than about 20 years, the observed trends from all data sources fall beneath the lower bound which contains 95 percent of all model trends and in the majority of cases, falls beneath even the absolute smallest trend found in any of the 102 climate model runs. The amount of that over-prediction comports well with a growing body of scientific findings and growing understanding that the sensitivity of the earth’s surface temperature to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels… lies towards (and yet within) the low end of the mainstream assessed likely range.”“A devastating indictment.” Could not agree more and still people like Al Gore go off on what is clearly becoming an obsolete scientific farce.2) Let’s move from two true climate scientists, Michaels and Knappenberger, to a famous non-scientist. Bill Ney is the "Science Guy” and for a long time filled a valid societal function by getting kids interested in science. But then he decided to market himself as a climate expert and a big supporter of the whole man made climate change/global warming theory.But let’s clear up something right now. While people like Michaels and Knappenberger are real climate scientists, while Judith Curry of Georgia Tech is a real climate scientists and many others we have discussed in this blog are real climate scientists, Bill Nye by training and profession is NOT a climate scientist. In fact, Bill Nye is not a scientist, he is an engineer by training and his early work history.According to a recent Breitbart article, Mr. Nye has an undergraduate degree in mechanical engineering. Using that degree, he worked in the aerospace industry, none of which has anything to do with climate science. But he has appointed himself as a player propagating the global warming theory. In fact, he recently bragged that he was flying around the country with Obama on Air Force One, as the following tweet shows:
Verified account‏@BillNye

Heading down to DC to catch an #EarthDay flight on Air Force One tomorrow with the President. We're going to #ActOnClimate.
Seems pretty hypocritical that someone who views himself as an earth savior from global warming brags about getting on a huge, carbon spewing jet to go for a public relations ride. So we now have a global warming effort led by a lawyer and former politician, Al Gore, and a mechanical engineer, Bill Nye, neither of whom have any training, education, or experience in climate science.3) We have often made the case that this President has an enormous ego and thinks that he has never made a mistake. However, in regards to Obama’s EPA plans to regulate and suppress coal usage in this country, over half of the country in a way thinks that he has actually made a mistake in this area. Twenty seven states, led by West Virginia, deep coal country, and Texas have banded together to fight the climate rules that the President is pushing.The attorney generals of 27 states recently went in front of Federal judges to try to stop Obama’s Clean Power Plan, arguing that the President and his EPA have overreached in their desire to suppress the usage of coal for power generation in this country. There is also the reality that these rules and regulations will be suppressing jobs and economic growth for an effort that will have little impact on the environment: the rest of the world is on track to build 2,400 coal burning plants in the near future while Obama is worried about a handful of U.S plants that will kill a whole lot of coal miner jobs.4) A November 30, 2015 article by Barbara Hollingsworth, writing for the CNSNews website, discussed the accusations of German scientist, Dr. Friedrich-Karl Ewer of the University of Paderborn. The professor accused NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) of deliberately altering temperature records between 2010 and 2012 to produce the false reality that the Earth had been warming since 1950.Specifically:
  • He researched historical temperatures of 1,153 weather stations from around the world going back to 1881. 
  • He found we he called “massive” manipulation by GISS between 2010 and 2012.
  • Ewert noticed that temperature data from weather stations in Iceland and Greenland had been changed after the fact.
  • Based on this manipulation, he then randomly looked at 120 weather stations around the world and manually compared the original archived data to GISS’ 2012 temperature records.
  • He found that the changing of published data to the original archived data was widespread.
  • He also found that since 1881, the original data points show four distinct cooling stages alternating with three warming phases over time, with the earth currently in a cooling phase.
  • He also concluded that there was a stronger warming period, based on government data, in earth’s history back in the early 1900s, long before carbon emissions had grown so much, as his following chart shows (click on the chart for a larger view):

(Source: Dr. Friedrich-Karl Ewert)

  • He also claimed that he found multiple statistical methods used by GISS to modify the data trend from cooling to warming: “Between the years 2010 and 2012 the data measured since 1881 were altered so that they showed a significant warming, especially after 1950…. A comparison of the data from 2010 with the data of 2012 shows that NASA-GISS had altered its own data sets so that especially after WWII, a clear warming appears – although it never existed.” 
For all I know this professor could be no better informed or credible than Bill Nye. But it appears that he did a lot of detailed work and analysis that at least deserves a formal review and critique. That is what real scientists do, review and critique other scientists’ works to ensure they represent reality.That will do it for today’s proof that it is perfectly rational to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science. More tomorrow.

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1 comment:

Dr. Mark H. Shapiro said...

If you really believe in science, then you have to follow the data. And, the data show convincingly that there has been substantial warming of the earth that began when the industrial revolution blossomed. If you don't want to believe the data from U.S. government sources about surface temperatures, then I invite you to examine the independent data from the Japan Meteorological Agency. These data show substantially the same results as other surface temperature records.

Dr. Mark H. Shapiro