Tuesday, January 26, 2016

January, 2016, Part 1, I Am A Global Warming Doubter And A Believer In Science: More Climate Forecasts Fails, A Warm Christmas In 1955, and More

Every month we have enough material to return to a continuing theme in this blog, namely that “I am a global warming doubter AND a believer in science.” This became of interest because of people like Al Gore who fanatically and verbosely claimed that you had to be an idiot to not believe in manmade global warming. It has been my life belief that anyone that is that loud and that obnoxious is hiding something, that rather than argue facts and reality it is better to beat down and insult anyone who disagrees.

As we have dove into the whole issue of manmade global warming, or its new rebranded title of climate change, we found that Al Gore and people like him were guilty of a number of things:
  • Ignoring science and realities that did not support their opinions and positions.
  • Rather than have an adult conversation about climate, these types of advocates like Gore sank to the level of insulting those who dared look at ALL science by calling them a variety of names including racists, homophobes, terrorists, flat earth believers, and other slanderous names.
  • Continuing to insist that politicians step up their intrusions into our lives with higher taxes, more regulations, and more control on our freedoms and standards of living based on a shaky theory at best.
To see the past posts and the multitude of evidence that we have compiled that showed it is perfectly okay to be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, enter the phrase "global warming doubter” in the search box above or go through the monthly historical post listed on the right side of this page.

Thus, let’s see the latest facts and science that prove you can be a global warming doubter and a believer in science, regardless of what Al Gore proclaims:

1) According to Phillip Hodges, writing for the Last Resistance website on December 25, 2015, Christmas Eve, 1955, long before global warming was supposed to have been underway, was warmer than Christmas Eve 2015. I would bet that he did this research and wrote the article since this has been an unusually warm winter across much of the country, which in all likelihood was due to the El Nino weather pattern that set up in the Pacific Ocean. 

He probably wanted to preemptively react to global warming believers that will claim one warm winter spell verifies global warming as a reality. The fact that the past two winters have been uncommonly cold throughout most of the country would be two data points that many global warming advocates would ignore

Mr. Hodges cites a quote from Steven Goddard who operates the Real Science blog: “Christmas Eve 1955 was much warmer. Three fourths of the country was over 60 degrees, and Ashland Kansas, Geary Oklahoma and Encinal Texas were all over 90 degrees. Fort Lauderdale was 85 degrees. All of the stations below were over 60 degrees on Christmas Eve, 1955.”

By “stations,” he means most metro areas in a map that is included in Mr. Hodges article that shows all of the metro areas in the U.S. that were above 60 degrees on Christmas Eve, 1955. His map and full article can be seen at:



His map shows that metro areas as far north as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, South Dakota, and others were all quite warm (warmer than 60 degress) on that day in 1955.

Apparently, Goddard also has a sense of humor and knowledge of old time movies. He describes how in the movie “White Christmas,” which was released shortly after the end of World War II, the characters lament that it is 70 degrees in New Hampshire in the middle of the winter and that Bing Crosby has to pine for snow in the movie via his singing of the song, “White Christmas.” The late 1940s and 1950s were not supposed to be times of global warming but it did get warm in the winter sometimes.

Bottom line is that one warm winter does not prove global warming is a reality much like two very, very cold winters does not disprove it is a reality. It is just that global warming doubters have a justified opinion by doubting the global warming hype, given Christmas Eve, 1955 and an old Hollywood movie from the 1940s. Can we now have a balanced discussion on the topic?

2) One of the fear mongering approaches that global warming advocates take is that it does not matter if global warming is a reality, our use of oil will deplete the world’s oil supplies pretty soon. Thus, it makes sense to start curtailing the use of fossil fuels such as oil and switch to cleaner fuels since oil will not be around much longer, the "experts" have predicted its demise. Who cares if electric and gasoline rates will go up, that economic growth will be stunted, job creation will be muted, the oil will be gone anyway.

Sounds logical, especially if “experts” have forecasted the demise and end of oil availability. But could the experts be wrong? Could long range predictions be wrong by “experts?” We have shown many time in this blog how the forecasting methods used to predict the warming of the earth have been grossly wrong for decades. Could these oil demise forecasts be as wrong?

Stephen Hall, writing for the Townhall website on December 29, 2015, actually looked into this question and found that the oil forecasters in the past have been just as wrong as the global warming forecasters of the past:
  • The United States Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory predicted in a past report that "the world is fast approaching the inevitable "peaking" of global oil production. 
  • Paul Krugman, writing in The New York Times in 2010, boldly stated that "world commodity prices ... are telling us that we're living in a finite world."
  • About a century ago, the U.S. Bureau of Mines forecasted total future production of oil at 6 billion barrels but since then the country has produced 20 times that amount. 
  • In 1939 the Department of the Interior predicted U.S. oil supplies would last just 13 more years. 
  • In 1980, hundreds of the top scientists in the United States issued a report called The Global 2000 Report to the President. These “experts” confidently predicted life would be far worse in just twenty years because the world would run out of oil, gas, food, and farmland.
In the face of these bold, and insanely wrong predictions, the world today is awash in excess oil. Gas prices continue to plummet to reflect this glut. And the current glut does not include the increased amount of Iranian oil that will start flowing into the market now that sanctions have been lifted and Iraqi oil fields that are under duress due to the ISIS factor. Simple economics: a glut of supply means a drop in prices, the exact things we see going today in the market.

But it is not just bad forecasts from long ago that are so funny. Consider how wrong our current President has been just in the past few years when it comes to predicting oil supplies:
  • Obama, 2008 speech in Lansing, Michigan: "We cannot sustain a future powered by a fuel that is rapidly disappearing."
  • Obama, 2010: "We're running out of places to drill." And then in his typically childish manner want on to sarcastically jeer that the oil and gas industry might want to start drilling for oil near the Washington Monument.
  • Obama, 2011: Oil and gas are “yesterday’s” energy sources.
  • Obama, Georgetown University: "The United States of America cannot afford to bet our long-term prosperity, our long-term security on a resource (oil) that will eventually run out."
According to research done by the Institute for Energy Research:
  • Twice as many oil reserves have been identified than what were thought to exist in 1950.
  • Humanity has produced almost ten times more oil than what the government thought existed back in 1950.
Technology has unlocked so much oil resources than could have ever been imagined as recently as a few years ago, if you believe Obama’s doomsday statements.

The bottom line is that please do not come at us global warming doubters with forecasts by “experts.” Experts have been so wrong in so many different areas in long term forecasts that the vast majority of those forecasts are laughable when looked back on. To think that global warming “experts” are any better at this game is fool’s gold. In fact, we have already shown multiple times in this blog that their forecasts over the years have been just as wrong as the forecasts listed above.

As we stated above in the first point of today’s discussion, can we now have a balanced discussion on the topic of global warming AND include the reality that all global warming forecasts have been wrong even though they were done by the “experts?” Can we stop with the name calling and condescending attitudes of the believers and get down to an adult conversation, looking at ALL of the data and information available?

3) Although you would not know it if you listen to Al Gore and Barack Obama, given their insistence that the “science is settled” and that “97% of scientists believe that manmade global warming is real,” there are many scientists that disagree with the Al Gore types. Dr. John Christy, director of the University of Alabama’s Earth System Science Center, has compiled new data and research that show the earth has warmed by just three quarters of a Fahrenheit degree in the past 37 years. This is considerably lower than what global warming advocates claim has happened and is happening.

Dr. Christy explained the implications of his findings to the Watts Up With That, a blog run by certified meteorologist Anthony Watts: “That would put the average global temperature change over 100 years well under the 2.0 C (3.6 degrees F) goal set recently at the climate change summit in Paris.”

So which scientists are right, Al Gore scientists or scientists like Dr. Christy? Most people on both sides of the debate probably know very, very little about credibility of either side’s scientists. Maybe now we can now have a balanced discussion on the topic, given that each side has their own set of scientists and that nowhere close to 97% of scientists are on one side.

That will do it for today. More evidence that being a global warming doubter is a sane, logical, and rational position to hold, given that past global warming forecasts by so-called "experts" have been grossly wrong, warm winter weather has been going on for decades before global warming became fashionable, and there are scientists that are global warming doubters also.

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